Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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WeatherBoy2000
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU slightly down to 16/8/3 / ACE=140

#81 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Thu Jul 10, 2025 8:58 am

al78 wrote:
Ulf wrote:Kinda surprised that CSU reduced their named storms forecast considering we already have 3 and the real possibility we might have La Niña condition by the fall.


I'm not seeing much evidence for that currently:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Apart from a couple of outliers that are on Neptune, it looks to be neutral through the rest of this year to high probability, assuming the model ensemble represents uncertainty reasonably.


Models like the NMME/C3S have trended in a more la nina direction. The CPC is now giving a slight edge for la nina redevelopment by fall/early winter:

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1943294137941528908

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU slightly down to 16/8/3 / ACE=140

#82 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 10, 2025 9:29 am

WeatherBoy2000 wrote:
al78 wrote:
Ulf wrote:Kinda surprised that CSU reduced their named storms forecast considering we already have 3 and the real possibility we might have La Niña condition by the fall.


I'm not seeing much evidence for that currently:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Apart from a couple of outliers that are on Neptune, it looks to be neutral through the rest of this year to high probability, assuming the model ensemble represents uncertainty reasonably.


Models like the NMME/C3S have trended in a more la nina direction. The CPC is now giving a slight edge for la nina redevelopment by fall/early winter:

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1943294137941528908



Summary of latest model progs for Nino 3.4: coolest month (these don’t take into account RONI type of adjustments downward)

BoM (Australian): -0.2 (in August)(too warm overall in prior 2 years; last July was slightly too warm with -0.17 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4)

Euro: ~-0.2 (almost always has been too warm…July forecast last year was only down to -0.11 for NDJ vs actual of ~-0.5)

JMA: ~-0.9 (Nov)(did well 2 years ago but too cool last year as July forecast had -0.87 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4)

MetFrance: ~-0.6 (Dec)(July outlook too warm 2 years ago but did fairly well last year with it actually slightly too cool with -0.61 OND vs actual of ~-0.4)

CFS: -0.5 (Nov)(last July much too cold with -1.32 for OND!)

UKMET: -0.76 (Oct) (this is from June as I don’t see July outlook yet)(did great 2 years ago but last July much too cool with -0.95 in OND)

————

So, my latest guess based on last year’s errors and current forecasts (all listed above) is for an ONI low point this fall/winter of ~-0.4. That would likely mean RONI low of a somewhat ominous (from hit risk standpoint for NE Caribbean to SE US on avg) -0.6 to -0.9.

But -0.6 to -0.9 RONI being “somewhat ominous” for those areas on avg doesn’t mean it will necessarily be a bad season for them as that’s just based on averages with a wide variance.. Actually, the Euro’s last few forecasts have had it near to slightly quieter than the 1993-2015 avg for those regions as a whole unlike what it showed for that area last year at this time.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU slightly down to 16/8/3 / ACE=140

#83 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Thu Jul 10, 2025 10:26 am

LarryWx wrote:
WeatherBoy2000 wrote:
al78 wrote:
I'm not seeing much evidence for that currently:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Apart from a couple of outliers that are on Neptune, it looks to be neutral through the rest of this year to high probability, assuming the model ensemble represents uncertainty reasonably.


Models like the NMME/C3S have trended in a more la nina direction. The CPC is now giving a slight edge for la nina redevelopment by fall/early winter:

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1943294137941528908



Summary of latest model progs for Nino 3.4: coolest month (these don’t take into account RONI type of adjustments downward)

BoM (Australian): -0.2 (in August)(too warm overall in prior 2 years; last July was slightly too warm with -0.17 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4)

Euro: ~-0.2 (almost always has been too warm…July forecast last year was only down to -0.11 for NDJ vs actual of ~-0.5)

JMA: ~-0.9 (Nov)(did well 2 years ago but too cool last year as July forecast had -0.87 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4)

MetFrance: ~-0.6 (Dec)(July outlook too warm 2 years ago but did fairly well last year with it actually slightly too cool with -0.61 OND vs actual of ~-0.4)

CFS: -0.5 (Nov)(last July much too cold with -1.32 for OND!)

UKMET: -0.76 (Oct) (this is from June as I don’t see July outlook yet)(did great 2 years ago but last July much too cool with -0.95 in OND)

————

So, my latest guess based on last year’s errors and current forecasts (all listed above) is for an ONI low point this fall/winter of ~-0.4. That would likely mean RONI low of a somewhat ominous (from hit risk standpoint for NE Caribbean to SE US on avg) -0.6 to -0.9.

But -0.6 to -0.9 RONI being “somewhat ominous” for those areas on avg doesn’t mean it will necessarily be a bad season for them as that’s just based on averages with a wide variance.. Actually, the Euro’s last few forecasts have had it near to slightly quieter than the 1993-2015 avg for those regions as a whole unlike what it showed for that area last year at this time.


CSU's current analogs are mixed bag when it comes to US impacts. 2008/2021 were very impactful, 2011 had one notable storm (Irene), while 2001 was overall very quiet with only three land falling storms, none of them hurricanes. In fact, the worst storm of that season had already happened by this point in the year.

In the end, everything points to a cooler enso by the fall, so it shouldn't be an obstacle for Atlantic activity.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU August forecast up on Wednesday at 11 AM EDT

#84 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 04, 2025 3:10 pm

Bumping to let know the members about CSU that is going to release their August forecast next Wednesday at 11 AM EDT. The July numbers were 16/8/3 and the question is if Phil will leave them the same, go down or go up. I lean the same.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU August forecast up on Wednesday at 11 AM EDT

#85 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 04, 2025 11:07 pm

Good chance you're right with CSU's numbers going unchanged, although it wouldn't surprise me if they lowered their forecast just a smidge. The balance of the season would need to go 12/8/3 to hit their July forecast number. I think they see conflicting signals. SST's & overall heat content being favorable. ENSO state also suggesting favorable. The questionable fly in the ointment being low humidity within certain layers being the primary contributor to areas of atmospheric stability, and the question whether it'll persist.
I'll guess they maintain "total storms" but lower "total hurricanes" by one. MH probably unchanged.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU August forecast=16/8/3 / ACE=140

#86 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 06, 2025 10:12 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU August forecast=16/8/3 / ACE=145

#87 Postby zzzh » Wed Aug 06, 2025 11:11 pm

Anyone knows why TSR still haven't released their August forecast? It's supposed to be out yesterday.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR August Forecast=16/8/3 / ACE=144

#88 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2025 8:32 am

TSR has 16/8/3 and ACE of 144. Analog years are s 1971, 2001, 2010, 2011 and 2013.


https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2025.pdf

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR August Forecast=16/8/3 / ACE=144

#89 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 07, 2025 8:34 am

cycloneye wrote:TSR has 16/8/3 and ACE of 144. Analog years are s 1971, 2001, 2010, 2011 and 2013.


https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2025.pdf


Thanks, Luis. How does this compare to their previous forecast?

Edit: I now see it has increased vs the prior forecast:

-ACE increased markedly from 126 to 144.
-The # of NS/H/MH increased slightly from 15/7/3 to 16/8/3.
-However, US impacts remained the same at 4 NS/2 H.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Aug 07, 2025 8:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR August Forecast=16/8/3 / ACE=144

#90 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2025 8:45 am

LarryWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:TSR has 16/8/3 and ACE of 144. Analog years are s 1971, 2001, 2010, 2011 and 2013.


https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2025.pdf


Thanks, Luis. How does this compare to their previous forecast?

Edit: I now see it has increased vs the prior forecast.


You can find at the list at first post the prior forecast from TSR and the other firms and agencies. TSR in July had 15/7/3.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA-Between 13-18 named storms

#91 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2025 9:58 am

NOAA also is up and the numbers are between 13-18.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/predi ... ane-season

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