Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

I think is time that the wave the models are developing, (forget tracks) deserve it's own thread to post the model runs, satelite images etc. Wave as of 8/6/25 at 8 PM EDT or 00:00 UTC is around Chad and will emerge on the weekend.

[Category5Kaiju]

At least per the most recent GFS run, what really catches my attention is how quickly this storm seems to form just after exiting Africa, becoming what appears to be a named system right next to the Cape Verde islands. Given its very high intensity down the line, somewhat reminds me of storms like Irma, Florence, and Lorenzo in that regard as well.

Really hope not, but if some of these model guidances are correct, then this could be a very long thread.

[Hurricaneman]

I want what the GFS is having as it seems the GFS develops an area in between this and 96L sending it into the GOM and this is the area off the east coast on the 18z run

Seems a little overdone to me but it shows the pattern could be dangerous as we head to mid to late August

[cycloneye]

I want what the GFS is having

For clarification, what do you want? Edited= Now I saw your post that you added what it was.

[cycloneye]

00z ICON run has wave in that position at the end of it.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to send this through Haiti this run

And then strengthens it in the western Caribbean

[Kohlecane]

Things picking up it seems, this one in particular could be a big ACE contributor if things align correctly

[cycloneye]

The 00z European develops wave near the Leeward Islands and tracks thru PR and DR.

[cycloneye]

The euro run ends just north of Yucatán as a powerful hurricane.

[GCANE]

Amazing, this far out how much EURO and GFS are in sync.
I have a bad feeling about this one.

[BobHarlem]

Still model inconsistency... The 6z GFS has backed off a lot on the wave east of 96L, basically follows the GFS path of 96L now, recurving just west of Bermuda and much weaker with it overall. 0z Euro and Canadian get it into the Caribbean. Euro AI still showcasing it's apparent thing for South Florida.

[Kohlecane]

Amazing, this far out how much EURO and GFS are in sync.
I have a bad feeling about this one.

I was just thinking that very interesting

[cycloneye]

BobHarlem was talking about this. The trend between 00z and 06z of GFS is very large.

[Category5Kaiju]

The GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, and AI Euro all at least show hints of this wave and are fairly consistent with the August 11-13 timeframe of its MDR launch.

[Blown Away]

00z ECENS

12z ECENS

00z ECENS really backed off the C Atlantic system in favor of a system in the SW Atlantic...

[LarryWx]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/hvKmT2xD/00z-ECENS.jpg [/url]
00z ECENS
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nrVsCCbM/12z-ECENS.jpg [/url]
12z ECENS

00z ECENS really backed off the C Atlantic system in favor of a system in the SW Atlantic...

However, the 6Z Euro ens 144 hour (end of run) is more active and quite possibly the most active run yet with this AEW. I count 19 closed sfc lows with 4 of those being sub 1000 mb. This is unfortunately setting up to be a potentially very dangerous system down the road for some land areas and is something the Euro Weeklies have been on top of for at least the last 9 days.

For the Conus, itself, I’ll especially be interested in whether or not the MJO is going to be either in or nearby phase 2 (inside or outside the circle), the most dangerous phase per the last 50 years of tracks, around two weeks from now. Model consensus is at least hinting at that possibility.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1953450162858192963

[LarryWx]

W African AEW:

1. The 12Z ICON is slightly stronger than the 0Z with the W African AEW. At 180, it has what already looks like a TD (1008 mb well organized low) at 19N, 46W. Although a TC near that position often recurves safely, this one is turning back to just N of due W after moving WNW earlier due to a stronger high to its north at this longitude.

2. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t have this. However, the 0Z had this data, which may or may not be from the same AEW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.4N 18.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 120 15.6N 21.0W 1009 28
1200UTC 12.08.2025 132 15.0N 24.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 13.08.2025 144 15.4N 26.0W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops wave more earlier than in past runs and moves away from the NE Caribbean Islands. 96L is a factor as the model develops a hurricane and opens a avenue and that is why it evades the Caribbean.Let's see down the road how the run ends.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS runs ends with a powerful hurricane / extratropical cyclone in the north atlantic and there is anything else on the basin.