ATL: ERIN - Models

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#161 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:46 am

last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

Image (0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#162 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:47 am

12z CMC :eek:

Getting uncomfortably close the the Carolinas
Last edited by Category5Kaiju on Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#163 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:47 am

BobHarlem wrote:last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

https://i.imgur.com/x6eWPy7.png (0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)


This is great news for Bermuda
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#164 Postby syfr » Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:52 am

MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

https://i.imgur.com/x6eWPy7.png (0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)


This is great news for Bermuda



And potentially bad news for those of us in the Carolinas.

But... it's a ways away.....
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#165 Postby TampaWxLurker » Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:53 am

Still heading NW at 150 hours, due south of Bermuda. Could get decently west of Bermuda this run. But maybe close to the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#166 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:57 am

syfr wrote:
MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

https://i.imgur.com/x6eWPy7.png (0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)


This is great news for Bermuda



And potentially bad news for those of us in the Carolinas.

But... it's a ways away.....


Hopefully it shoots the gap and gives us both good surfing.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#167 Postby hurricane2025 » Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:58 am

syfr wrote:
MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:last frame of the 12z Canadian Gem. Canadian is slower, and sw of the 0z

https://i.imgur.com/x6eWPy7.png (0z was nw of Bermuda this far out)


This is great news for Bermuda



CMC is wrong 99 percent of the time


And potentially bad news for those of us in the Carolinas.

But... it's a ways away.....
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#168 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:00 pm

12z / 6z GFS nearly identical out to 180 hours.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#169 Postby TampaWxLurker » Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:01 pm

Maybe spoke too soon. Headed due north just west of Bermuda, same as the last run.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#170 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:04 pm

12z GFS nearest to Bermuda. Almost eerily similar to the 6z this far out. Honestly if this continues all the way to the end I'm going think the 12z run is a bit botched. (update: it starts to diverge later, no Canada landfall either.)
Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#171 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:36 pm

12z Euro AI is strikingly similar to the 0z and 6z runs also. Gets close to the Bahamas then recurves between NC and Bermuda with no Canadian landfall either.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#172 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:53 pm

HAFS are running now, HWRF and HMON are not. Both are approaching hurricane strength in the next 48-54 hours
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#173 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 11, 2025 1:07 pm

12Z Euro: best of both worlds with it well away from US and also ~250 miles W of Bermuda
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#174 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 11, 2025 1:17 pm

12z Euro closest approach to Bermuda (west).
Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#175 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 11, 2025 1:33 pm

Despite the consistency in the operationals, there's still a lot of spread in the GFS ensembles
Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#176 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Aug 11, 2025 1:38 pm

their has been a noticeable shift SW today on the ensembles, the east coast is definitely not even close to being out of the woods with ERIN
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#177 Postby syfr » Mon Aug 11, 2025 1:38 pm

BobHarlem wrote: pic



That is quite a low in the eye, and with beautiful symmetry in this model.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#178 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Aug 11, 2025 1:55 pm

Both HAFS models fluctuate between 105-120kts for the remainder of the run.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#179 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2025 1:58 pm

18z SHIPS data.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED *
* ERIN AL052025 08/11/25 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 59 68 74 81 89 94 98 104 106 105 110 112 112
V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 59 68 74 81 89 94 98 104 106 105 110 112 112
V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 57 65 73 81 89 96 99 101 100 98 97 100 102
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 7 10 7 6 9 9 13 16 22 18 10 13 10 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 2 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 3 7
SHEAR DIR 60 74 97 83 70 95 57 360 346 313 299 284 292 297 329 331 296
SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.0 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 120 120 122 127 126 135 141 144 150 154 156 154 154 160 162
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.4
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 59 57 56 52 50 50 50 55 56 58 61 64 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 16 18 17 19 21 23 24 28 30 29 34 35 37
850 MB ENV VOR 106 118 122 125 122 104 86 67 42 39 19 21 5 -1 0 -6 37
200 MB DIV 87 74 52 37 28 -18 -24 -13 23 16 24 19 29 4 10 16 49
700-850 TADV -6 -4 1 4 1 4 2 0 0 -3 3 -1 5 0 6 10 22
LAND (KM) 1290 1496 1702 1899 2097 1871 1682 1444 1174 980 721 511 441 449 516 722 970
LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.2 20.1 21.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 29.3 31.2 33.2 35.1 37.0 40.3 43.2 46.8 49.9 52.6 55.4 58.4 61.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 15 16 16 15 14 14 15 12 7 8 13 14
HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 2 3 5 11 18 25 29 33 36 39 42 40 36 27

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=620)
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#180 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 11, 2025 2:44 pm

12z GEFS Ensemble tracks (animated). Slight left overall shift since the 6z.
Image
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