ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/qyH3cMM.png

Hot waters lie ahead of Erin. The storm hasn't even reached the true 30 C waters yet.

Hurricane models seem to be in strong agreement that some disruptive shear will start soon and prevent Erin from taking advantage of those waters, though. Might even start as early as overnight.

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty cool look at the last 48 hours where you can see the EWRC. Its impressive how much larger the eye is now.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/qyH3cMM.png

Hot waters lie ahead of Erin. The storm hasn't even reached the true 30 C waters yet.

Hurricane models seem to be in strong agreement that some disruptive shear will start soon and prevent Erin from taking advantage of those waters, though. Might even start as early as overnight.

The NHC has her regaining Cat 4 strength in the next 24 hours. So it looks like she at least gets one more shot.

[Jr0d]

Could happen, yes.

NCC055-182101-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Local Area Emergency
NC Dare County Emergency Management
Relayed by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
601 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...DARE COUNTY EM: MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERED OF DARE COUNTY
HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE A (HATTERAS ISLAND)...

The following message is transmitted at the request of Dare County
Emergency Management.

DARE COUNTY EM: STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED WITH MANDATORY
EVACUATION OF DARE COUNTY HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE A (HATTERAS
ISLAND). VISITORS MUST EVACUATE STARTING AT 10AM 8/18/25.
RESIDENTS START AT 8AM 8/19/25. MORE AT DARENC.GOV/HURRICANEERIN

Good call by their emergency management team of Dare County, NC. I can't say the same about the Monroe County, Florida Keys officials and their decisions the past 5 years. We have had some close calls but fortunately we haven't had a major impact since Irma, however Ian did cause significant storm surge flooding with tropical storm conditions and they did not evacuate tourists nor declare a state of emergency which made it much more difficult with for those who got flooded to get FEMA aid like a hotel voucher for those who got flooded.

I am glad to see the Dare Country officials are putting public safety over the tourism dollar and hopefully setting up their residents for getting FEMA help as soon as possible if they need it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Erin’s starting to clean up pretty good now.

[Teban54]

[MGC]

Eye starting to open up. Likely waking up to a very large Cat-4 tomorrow. Super lucky it will only disturb the fish.....MGC

[hurricaneCW]

Eye starting to open up. Likely waking up to a very large Cat-4 tomorrow. Super lucky it will only disturb the fish.....MGC

Yes but there will be a lot of beach erosion, coastal flooding, etc.

[DW5522]

Hey guys I normally just stick to the winter threads but my brother is leaving for South Carolina Tuesday, what kind of conditions can they expect? Maybe just rain, wind and rough surf?

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is definitely starting to intensify again. There is a ring of very cold cloud tops shooting around the center, and the eye is clearing

[emeraldislenc]

Hyde county ordered mandatory evacuations of Ocracoke Island, NC! The only way to leave is by ferry. Makes sense to me!

[sasha_B]

Back to a Category 4 (115 kts, 942 hPa) on the 03z advisory. Coming along pretty quickly now.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Back to a Category 4 (115 kts, 942 hPa) on the 03z advisory. Coming along pretty quickly now.

Recon just disproved this with at most 95 kt support in the SE quad and 956 XTRAP so far (not at the center). Would’ve left it at 110 kt.

[canebeard]

I can't say the same about the Monroe County, Florida Keys officials and their decisions the past 5 years. We have had some close calls but fortunately we haven't had a major impact since Irma, however Ian did cause significant storm surge flooding with tropical storm conditions and they did not evacuate tourists nor declare a state of emergency which made it much more difficult with for those who got flooded to get FEMA aid like a hotel voucher for those who got flooded.

I am glad to see the Dare Country officials are putting public safety over the tourism dollar and hopefully setting up their residents for getting FEMA help as soon as possible if they need it.

A. Monroe County (the Florida Keys) was in the best of hands for decades when Billy Wagner was at the helm. Billy was the man who also sat at the NHC when any hurricane was making landfall in the USA, and coordinating with Emergency Managers in all the threatened areas. (Liaison). Since he retired: ???????

B. The US gov't took three days to even dispatch FEMA personnel to the Hill Country of Texas. The "Secretary" said she can't allocate funds until 72 hours has passed since a request is made for assistance. So good luck with any timely FEMA help in the near future.

[canebeard]

duplicate, please delete, I don't know how

[ljmac75]

Back to a Category 4 (115 kts, 942 hPa) on the 03z advisory. Coming along pretty quickly now.

Recon just disproved this with at most 95 kt support in the SE quad and 956 XTRAP so far (not at the center). Would’ve left it at 110 kt.

948 (generously 947) pressure. Maybe we'll see a special "Oops" advisory.

[mitchell]

Hey guys I normally just stick to the winter threads but my brother is leaving for South Carolina Tuesday, what kind of conditions can they expect? Maybe just rain, wind and rough surf?

rough surf, but SC seems far enough west to avoid any rain or wind from Erin.

[DW5522]

Hey guys I normally just stick to the winter threads but my brother is leaving for South Carolina Tuesday, what kind of conditions can they expect? Maybe just rain, wind and rough surf?

rough surf, but SC seems far enough west to avoid any rain or wind from Erin.

Thanks bud, appreciate the feedback. I don’t get much hurricane action in north Tx, a little out of my wheelhouse.

[HurricaneIrma]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again