2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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TomballEd
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#721 Postby TomballEd » Sat Aug 16, 2025 4:59 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looks like the long-range Euro AI model and GFS busted big-time in the long-range with Erin moving west impacting Florida and then the Gulf or being in the vicinity of. They did, however, accurately predict a significant hurricane forming in the long-range. Modelling has a long way to go predicting not only genesis but track especially once you get beyond 168 hours (a week) and especially over 200. There is a reason why the NHC forecast and outlooks only go out 7 days. That being said, as we see just about every year, we can expect more major hurricane landfall hits for Florida in the long-range forecasts especially by the GFS (who some here call the "Giving Florida Storms" model). It's when we get within 180 hours and especially within 168 hours with the modeling that can be more concerning. Even then sometimes the track can shift within a 3-day forecast even up to the day of landfall.

I hope no one on here is getting too emotionally invested in landfall points for this system as of now, for specifically the reasons you mention. Main themes at this point are that the chances of storm formation look to be going up, and that formation looks to occur in an area where the likelihood of land impacts for someone is notably higher. Anything more specific or farther out in time is hardly more than entertainment value at this time. Those who live on hurricane prone coastlines should be getting prepared, if for no other reason than that we are in the climatologically favored period where storms like this can occur. Otherwise, plenty of time to watch the model wars.



I think AI/machine learning, if set up properly, will learn from its mistakes and get better.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#722 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:11 pm

through hour 120 on the 18z GFS we already have a TS approaching the southern leeward islands, thats a pretty far south latitude that its at , looks like potential gulf trouble with the bermuda high really pushing this west with no escape route to the north
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#723 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:22 pm

This would be two consecutive deep MDR systems if a legit signal. Pretty much just in time in a classic climo sense.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#724 Postby DunedinDave » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:25 pm

It’s crazy how off thr GFS and Euro are on the next system. Whatever does develop, all euro ensembles basically have it following Erin and out to sea. GFS does a complete 180, taking it through the islands and somewhere into the Caribbean or gulf ik about 10 days time. This isn’t like June where GFS was calling a storm three weeks in advance…this is basically 5 days from now it has it entering the Caribbean as a storm.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#725 Postby LAF92 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:26 pm

Stratton23 wrote:through hour 120 on the 18z GFS we already have a TS approaching the southern leeward islands, thats a pretty far south latitude that its at , looks like potential gulf trouble with the bermuda high really pushing this west with no escape route to the north

This thing is avoiding all the land around the Caribbean it could bomb out for a while
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#726 Postby TomballEd » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:32 pm

Euro ensembles have a few lower latitude leakers to menace the Caribbean or Gulf.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#727 Postby Pelicane » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:35 pm

It happens. With Dorian the Euro literally had nothing and then a run or two later, and boom, suddenly there's an invest and it's playing catch up. The GFS isn't perfect either, it's had had false alarms too, I remember there was that unusual impulse off of South America a couple seasons back that it was convinced would develop in the Carribean in defiance of other models, and nothing happened.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#728 Postby hurricane2025 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:50 pm

Sooner or later euro will latch on
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#729 Postby TomballEd » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:07 pm

Pelicane wrote:It happens. With Dorian the Euro literally had nothing and then a run or two later, and boom, suddenly there's an invest and it's playing catch up. The GFS isn't perfect either, it's had had false alarms too, I remember there was that unusual impulse off of South America a couple seasons back that it was convinced would develop in the Carribean in defiance of other models, and nothing happened.



Early season GFS phantom canes in the SW Caribbean, persisting run after run, for days, with the biggest change being the storm always remains 6 or 10 days out before disappearing from the model, happens almost every year, sometimes more than once.

I think someone said yesterday worst case for Florida on the 18Z GFS. Today is probably worse.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#730 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:08 pm

thankfully its a long range GFS run, but man that steering pattern on the 18z GFS eerily looks similar to the setup that caused harvey to stall over texas ( but this run goes into Tallahassee) got two big ridges fighting to steer the storm and the jet stream is pretty zonal and stays well north
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#731 Postby Pelicane » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:11 pm

GEFS is active and mostly north of the Caribbean.
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Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#732 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 16, 2025 6:33 pm

Model runs for wave at MDR can be posted at the new thread for it

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 7#p3133127
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#733 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Aug 18, 2025 7:09 pm

New AOI...
Image

18z GFZ has it into gulf ~9/1, Euro-AI also has it about the same spot, about the same time.
Image
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#734 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Aug 18, 2025 7:29 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:New AOI...
https://i.ibb.co/qMFZHqrC/nhc818.jpg

18z GFZ has it into gulf ~9/1, Euro-AI also has it about the same spot, about the same time.
https://i.ibb.co/20VSZR1k/gfs818.jpg


Not from that wave, a phantom low off of Venezuela

You may be correct. I tried to trace the Euro-AI mid vorticity across.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#735 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Aug 19, 2025 8:05 am

Google Weather Labs and Euro Ensembles run for the next 7 days. They have one more storm recurving out to sea and a couple of lows not adding up to much.

Google Weather Lab

Image
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#736 Postby hurricane2025 » Tue Aug 19, 2025 9:48 am

Ridge will build back in time don’t worry
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#737 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Aug 19, 2025 11:51 am

GFS/CMC show our lemonade wave in the W. Caribbean in 9-10 days
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#738 Postby LAF92 » Tue Aug 19, 2025 11:56 am

Stratton23 wrote:GFS/CMC show our lemonade wave in the W. Caribbean in 9-10 days

That’s atleast 3 gfs runs in a row and the timeline adds up. Gfs staying consistent
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#739 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 19, 2025 10:33 pm

Today’s Euro Weeklies have Sept week 3 (9/15-21) for the first time. It’s near the very active 2005-24 avg. Regarding progged ACE in Sept: after a well BN 1st week and a moderately BN week 2, week 3 is significantly more active and actually has the most ACE of any of the 4 weeks by a good margin starting with the final week of August.

This is giving me flashbacks to 2024 as this is at least hinting at a Sept resembling last Sept, which had a much more active 2nd half than first half. I’m guessing that this prog of relative quiet in week 1 transitioning to normal active in week 3 is MJO related.

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 5-6
9/8-14: 8-10
9/15-21: 13-15
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#740 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Aug 20, 2025 12:21 pm

lol 12z GFS, but i am watching September closely for the gulf, MJO rotation comes back in early september into the phases that favor development in the western caribbean - gulf
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