ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1101 Postby Craters » Wed Aug 20, 2025 10:05 pm

It sure is fun and interesting to watch such a huge, majestic storm like Erin, knowing that it isn't going to wipe somebody or someplace off the map...
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1102 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 20, 2025 10:50 pm

Craters wrote:It sure is fun and interesting to watch such a huge, majestic storm like Erin, knowing that it isn't going to wipe somebody or someplace off the map...


Erin will get another chance in 2031...
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1103 Postby mitchell » Wed Aug 20, 2025 11:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:Erin is definitely tracking east of the forecast. I doubt there will be any TS wind on the OBX. Hatteras is currently NE at 10 kts gusting 22 kts. Plane found 70-75 kts in SW quadrant.


Agree - doing a survey this evening of all the bouys offshore OBX and land stations the highest sustained wind speed I could find was 31 knots, and that was over water. The winds don't seem to be increasing over the past few hours either.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1104 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 21, 2025 12:48 am

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1105 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Aug 21, 2025 1:35 am

From Last advisory at 2 am EDT:

A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1106 Postby hiflyer » Thu Aug 21, 2025 5:46 am

Guess it is fitting that the current end of run of the Euro shows Erin dissolving into Ireland.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1107 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 21, 2025 6:54 am

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1108 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 21, 2025 7:21 am

Looks like recon is finding wind of 65-70 kts in the NE quadrant. As its wind field expands, the pressure gradient is lower, reducing the wind speed. There were some gusts to 34-39 kts across the Outer banks overnight, but nothing close to sustained TS winds. Erin turned northeast last evening, earlier than predicted.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1109 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 21, 2025 7:48 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks like recon is finding wind of 65-70 kts in the NE quadrant. As its wind field expands, the pressure gradient is lower, reducing the wind speed. There were some gusts to 34-39 kts across the Outer banks overnight, but nothing close to sustained TS winds. Erin turned northeast last evening, earlier than predicted.


wxman57,
I’m confused. What you said that I bolded doesn’t appear to me to agree with the following:

1. From 2AM NHC advisory:
“A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.”

2. From 5AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at
Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).”

3. From 8AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in
Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).”
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1110 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 21, 2025 8:32 am

LarryWx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like recon is finding wind of 65-70 kts in the NE quadrant. As its wind field expands, the pressure gradient is lower, reducing the wind speed. There were some gusts to 34-39 kts across the Outer banks overnight, but nothing close to sustained TS winds. Erin turned northeast last evening, earlier than predicted.


wxman57,
I’m confused. What you said that I bolded doesn’t appear to me to agree with the following:

1. From 2AM NHC advisory:
“A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.”

2. From 5AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at
Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).”

3. From 8AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in
Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).”


I was looking at the official NWS KHSE station METARs. Winds were lower than predicted yesterday morning. Coastal buoys/stations that are not over land would have seen stronger wind.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1111 Postby 72Packer » Thu Aug 21, 2025 12:21 pm

Highway NC 12 (on the beach) north of Corolla, NC this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1FKtBaPaup/
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1112 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 21, 2025 2:18 pm

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1113 Postby ljmac75 » Thu Aug 21, 2025 2:23 pm

Everyone keeps mentioning it with Erin, is SFMR data being used by the NHC this season or not?
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1114 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 21, 2025 3:34 pm

ljmac75 wrote:Everyone keeps mentioning it with Erin, is SFMR data being used by the NHC this season or not?


There is still a calibration issue with the instrument in high winds (past 80 mph I believe), and it's not being used operationally to my understanding. A grad student here at FSU has been working with the NOAA on creating an algorithm to improve the calibration issue (otherwise instruments on the planes will need to be manually recalibrated at some point). The SFMR data is still available though (just not operationally used at the NHC).
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1115 Postby TallyTracker » Thu Aug 21, 2025 4:09 pm



Erin looks to be in the early stages of extratropical transition now. I recall seeing the front forecast to be getting close to storm by today. Probably only has 24-36 hours left as a tropical cyclone.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1116 Postby Woofde » Thu Aug 21, 2025 5:06 pm

ljmac75 wrote:Everyone keeps mentioning it with Erin, is SFMR data being used by the NHC this season or not?
It's hard to find updated information, but the most recent information (an NHC public information statement) suggests they are still not using it due to calibration and data validity issues. It struggles with measurements over shallow water and storms with relatively high or low wind speeds. It can be used as a part of the picture, but the data must be taken with a grain of salt.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/pns/pnsnhc.msg
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1117 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Aug 21, 2025 9:47 pm

She's had a good run.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1118 Postby bob rulz » Fri Aug 22, 2025 12:55 am

I've been too busy to track storms much this year, but this is one of those nearly ideal storms that has had little impact on land but puts on a show for the satellites. Very fun storm to track.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1119 Postby TomballEd » Fri Aug 22, 2025 10:22 am

What is current ACE for Erin.
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ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1120 Postby Woofde » Fri Aug 22, 2025 10:48 am

TomballEd wrote:What is current ACE for Erin.
Erin stands at 32.2 ACE at the moment.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Re ... thatlantic
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