ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

[Stratton23]

Kind of looks like the GFS maybe leaves a piece of 99L behind as the main wave axis goes into CA, i cant tell though if thats from 99L or not, CMC seems to be kind of doing the same, lot of vorticity near CA so its extremely difficult to tel whats legit on the models or not

[LarryWx]

I haven't been watching this closely but it does seem like the Ensembles(EURO, GFS, and Canadian) are showing a much stronger signal when this makes it to the NW Caribbean and the GoM versus earlier this week.

I will be monitoring this trend closer now. Regardless it seems to be outperforming the models except the ICON.

The 12Z Euro and CDN ensemble both had a stronger signal than earlier runs. But the GFS remains pretty quiet.

By the way, the UKMET still doesn’t have this, but that goes out only 168.

[Kingarabian]

Kind of looks like the GFS maybe leaves a piece of 99L behind as the main wave axis goes into CA, i cant tell though if thats from 99L or not, CMC seems to be kind of doing the same, lot of vorticity near CA so its extremely difficult to tel whats legit on the models or not

GFS and ICON have a TD in nearly the same area at hour 180. Assuming its 99L on the GFS.

[Kingarabian]

With that 00z GFS run, GEFS will likely come in much more active in regards to 99L. Also verifies that the ICON holds some weight in its forecasts for 99L.

[LAF92]

With that 00z GFS run, GEFS will likely come in much more active in regards to 99L. Also verifies that the ICON holds some weight in its forecasts for 99L.

Point ICON early in this game

[Kingarabian]

Seems like models are beginning to interpolate a convectively active 99L .

[Kazmit]

Finally the GFS is on board, bombs it out in the GOM.

[LAF92]

Finally the GFS is on board, bombs it out in the GOM.

And slams the brakes on before it hits Grand Isle and starts moving east it basically skates the Louisiana coast for 2 days then heads towards Florida

[LarryWx]

With that 00z GFS run, GEFS will likely come in much more active in regards to 99L. Also verifies that the ICON holds some weight in its forecasts for 99L.

The 0Z GFS ens is somewhat more active with ~20% becoming TCs.

Edit: The 0Z Euro ens isn’t nearly as active as that significantly more active 12Z ens was.

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS does not develop 99l. Takes it into the Yucatan peninsula, then briefly into the Boc, attempts to get going there, but just winds up in Mexico. None of the Euro Ensembles get it into the main part of the gulf this morning. The two GFS Ensemble members that get into the Gulf stall it out in there. 6z Icon shifted to be weaker, left of 0z out to 120 hours. Don't really think 99l will do much, but should at least monitor anyway. Recon going out tonight may improve some things for tomorrow's later model runs.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS had 6-7 TS+ members from this per my eyeballing. The 6Z GEFS has 5 (17%). So, it isn’t dead by any means although it isn’t all that active either and is slightly quieter than the 0Z.

[Kingarabian]

12z ICON is faster and remains a disorganized wave so far.

[BobHarlem]

12z icon, faster, dives it into Honduras without development.

[Kingarabian]

12z icon, faster, dives it into Honduras without development.

Looks like it gets into the BOC.

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS does not develop 99L either, and energy also goes into Honduras (same with 12z Canadian). It does spin up something completely different in the Gulf though. CMC/GFS show it may get going in the East Pacific however.

[TomballEd]

Looking at the GFS ensembles plus the available op models I'm about 75% sure 99L will become an EPac storm. I posted the same yesterday.

[Stormlover70]

Low sw of La on that run headed ssw. Interesting

[TomballEd]

Looking at the GFS ensembles plus the available op models I'm about 75% sure 99L will become an EPac storm. I posted the same yesterday.

Outliers, sure, but I always pay attention to outliers that threaten MBY.

[Stratton23]

Seems like the GEPS also has some in the BOC, nothing going. in the caribbean but ensembles start to come to life again in the southern gulf

[LarryWx]

The Euro ensemble, which had gotten significantly more active 24 hours ago and then on the 0Z significantly less active than yesterday’s 12Z run, was very quiet on today’s 12Z with virtually nothing.