2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

Even the GFS ensembles have more Pacific systems. Much too early to get concerned but Euro just N of Caribbean threat in 2 weeks seems more likely.

May have two MDR systems in next two weeks.

[DunedinDave]

6z GFS with another "Perrycane". Big Bend cannot catch a break if this verifies. (no other operational model has it, so it's probably phantom, even a week out, it's already shifted back in time from Monday runs that were showing the gulf which are a telltale sign of phantom CAG.)

https://i.postimg.cc/fyykFrmZ/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh174-336.gif

As I said in another post, it’s almost the exact same track on almost the exact same day that Helene hit last year.

That said, I’m not buying it yet. GFS has Brownsville at 0z and Perry at 6z. It’s all over the place. No other models really showing much at least in the next week. I think if something forms it’s more likely to head into Mexico or the Yucatán and cross into the Pacific.

[Teban54]

0z ECMWF and 6z GFS both have a second MDR hurricane behind the 0/30 AOI, from a wave that emerges from Africa around Sep 20. Gets much closer to the islands, although obviously too early to be a serious concern especially for CONUS.

[Stratton23]

CMC caved to the GFS with a CAG system lifting due north out of the SW caribbean so wont be surprised when a lemon is issued for the NW caribbean in a couple of days, both models are also showing 3-4 areas to watch behind the CAG system, to no surprise modes are starting to see the effects of that MJO passage in a week

[LAF92]

CMC caved to the GFS with a CAG system lifting due north out of the SW caribbean so wont be surprised when a lemon is issued for the NW caribbean in a couple of days, both models are also showing 3-4 areas to watch behind the CAG system, to no surprise modes are starting to see the effects of that MJO passage in a week

The 12zGFS looks like it keeps that particular CAG festering in the BOC for a week then slings it the central Gulf towards the end of the run.

[MetroMike]

CMC caved to the GFS with a CAG system lifting due north out of the SW caribbean so wont be surprised when a lemon is issued for the NW caribbean in a couple of days, both models are also showing 3-4 areas to watch behind the CAG system, to no surprise modes are starting to see the effects of that MJO passage in a week

The 12Z CMC is a weak signal at the very end of the run.Would disregard it atm. Very weak sauce
and could be another spurious low that come and go this season.

[Stratton23]

MetroMike I respectfully disagree about disregarding it, its the first global model other than the GFS to indicate some sort of development in that region, GEPS does have some support for it , so while its a low chance, its definitely enough to watch, late september anyways is usually when the CAG starts becoming the main area to watch for development, so climatology is also a factor here

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: another run with MDR TS moving WNW

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.7N 32.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 84 12.7N 32.7W 1010 27
1200UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.7N 35.4W 1008 29
0000UTC 16.09.2025 108 13.9N 37.7W 1006 28
1200UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.2N 39.8W 1005 38
0000UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.1N 41.3W 1004 40
1200UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.6N 43.3W 1003 42
0000UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.4N 44.8W 1003 45
1200UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.3N 46.7W 1003 41

Oh shoot, I did it again. Wrong thread!
Please delete!