2025 Global ACE: NH - 184.2 (349.9) / NATL - 39.0 (73.7) / EPAC - 88.9 (98.6) / WPAC - 56.3 (168.0) / NIO - 0 (9.6)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6628
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH -138.8 (223.4) / NATL - 36.9 (24.9) / EPAC - 49.4 (71.7) / WPAC - 52.5 (117.3) / NIO - 0 (9.5)

#21 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 25, 2025 11:17 am

cycloneye wrote:Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.

https://i.imgur.com/kyq67Dx.jpeg

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... -hurricane


Thanks, Luis. Seasons with 3+ H hits on the CONUS are considered quite active for the CONUS. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ CONUS H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146742
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH - 150.3 (277.0) / NATL - 39.0 (43.1) / EPAC - 57.8 (84.8) / WPAC - 53.5 (139.6) / NIO - 0 (9

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 03, 2025 6:00 am

NATL better start to get ACE soon or it will fall well behind the normal average. WPAC continues to be the worse basin as the gap between 2025 ACE and the average to this date continues to get very wide.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31416
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH - 164.1 (286.4) / NATL - 39.0 (47.0) / EPAC - 70.8 (86.9) / WPAC - 54.3 (143.0) / NIO - 0 (9

#23 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2025 11:57 am

Hard to see anyway the WPAC catches up to average now, would need an exceptional burst and nothing on the horizon that would be suggestive of that level of activity.

EPAC and NATL aren't far from average but the EPAC looks like after Kiko there isn't much on the docket, so even if it does catch up to average in the next few days it will soon fall behind again,

The NATL did look like it might catch up but 91l increasingly looks like it might not come off, at least in any great way, so the NATL is increasingly slipping behind the pace. Of course in recent years the 2nd half of the season has often exploded, so that doesn't mean a great deal for the moment, though the longer it takes to get things going the more the odds of a technical below average ACE season increases.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6628
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH - 164.1 (286.4) / NATL - 39.0 (47.0) / EPAC - 70.8 (86.9) / WPAC - 54.3 (143.0) / NIO - 0 (9

#24 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 05, 2025 12:11 pm

KWT wrote:Hard to see anyway the WPAC catches up to average now, would need an exceptional burst and nothing on the horizon that would be suggestive of that level of activity.

EPAC and NATL aren't far from average but the EPAC looks like after Kiko there isn't much on the docket, so even if it does catch up to average in the next few days it will soon fall behind again,

The NATL did look like it might catch up but 91l increasingly looks like it might not come off, at least in any great way, so the NATL is increasingly slipping behind the pace. Of course in recent years the 2nd half of the season has often exploded, so that doesn't mean a great deal for the moment, though the longer it takes to get things going the more the odds of a technical below average ACE season increases.


As a result of the large amount of ACE from Erin, 2025 NATL climbed out of the depths to way up at 12th of the last 75 for the date as of August 22nd. But with only a few ACE from Fernand since then, 2025 with its current 39 has fallen all of the way back to 33rd of the last 75 and just below the mean since 1951 of 41 and solidly below the 1991-2020 mean near 50. That 1991-2020 mean rises to ~60 as of Sep 10th. So, absent 91L developing into a TS+ during the next 5 days, ACE would very likely fall to well below the active era mean as of Sept 10th.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146742
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH - 182.2 (327.0) / NATL - 39.0 (64.8) / EPAC - 87.1 (94.6) / WPAC - 56.1 (158.1) / NIO - 0 (

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 13, 2025 9:35 am

As of 9/13/25, the gap at the NATL continues to get larger between the 2025 data and the average. WPAC has a bigger gap.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

al78
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2018 12:20 pm

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH - 184.2 (349.9) / NATL - 39.0 (73.7) / EPAC - 88.9 (98.6) / WPAC - 56.3 (168.0) / NIO - 0 (

#26 Postby al78 » Wed Sep 17, 2025 7:25 am

Question is, what is suppressing tropical cyclone activity across the entire northern hemisphere? I don't recall a year where every single basin was below average, normally if the Pacific is quiet, the Atlantic is active and vice versa. The NE Pacific has generated a lot of storms but most have been weak systems and the ACE is still below climatology to-date, would have been even quieter without the huge boost from Kiko. The N Indian never spawned anything in its spring period.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146742
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH - 184.2 (349.9) / NATL - 39.0 (73.7) / EPAC - 88.9 (98.6) / WPAC - 56.3 (168.0) / NIO - 0 (

#27 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2025 7:35 am

Looks like WPAC will get plenty of ACE in the next 2 weeks with 90W and 91W.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
StormWeather
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 366
Joined: Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:34 pm

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH - 184.2 (349.9) / NATL - 39.0 (73.7) / EPAC - 88.9 (98.6) / WPAC - 56.3 (168.0) / NIO - 0 (

#28 Postby StormWeather » Wed Sep 17, 2025 7:45 am

al78 wrote:Question is, what is suppressing tropical cyclone activity across the entire northern hemisphere? I don't recall a year where every single basin was below average, normally if the Pacific is quiet, the Atlantic is active and vice versa. The NE Pacific has generated a lot of storms but most have been weak systems and the ACE is still below climatology to-date, would have been even quieter without the huge boost from Kiko. The N Indian never spawned anything in its spring period.

Is it really weak when every EPAC system (only EPAC, no CPAC) has peaked at 50 kts or higher?

Alvin - 50 kts
Barbara - 65 kts
Cosme - 60 kts
Dalila - 55 kts
Erick - 125 kts
Flossie - 105 kts
Gil - 65 kts
Henriette (was in CPAC at peak) - 75 kts
Ivo - 55 kts
Juliette - 60 kts
Kiko - 125 kts
Lorena - 75 kts
Mario - 55 kts
1 likes   
Just an average cyclone tracker

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 4059
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH - 184.2 (349.9) / NATL - 39.0 (73.7) / EPAC - 88.9 (98.6) / WPAC - 56.3 (168.0) / NIO - 0 (

#29 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 17, 2025 9:37 am

StormWeather wrote:
al78 wrote:Question is, what is suppressing tropical cyclone activity across the entire northern hemisphere? I don't recall a year where every single basin was below average, normally if the Pacific is quiet, the Atlantic is active and vice versa. The NE Pacific has generated a lot of storms but most have been weak systems and the ACE is still below climatology to-date, would have been even quieter without the huge boost from Kiko. The N Indian never spawned anything in its spring period.

Is it really weak when every EPAC system (only EPAC, no CPAC) has peaked at 50 kts or higher?

Alvin - 50 kts
Barbara - 65 kts
Cosme - 60 kts
Dalila - 55 kts
Erick - 125 kts
Flossie - 105 kts
Gil - 65 kts
Henriette (was in CPAC at peak) - 75 kts
Ivo - 55 kts
Juliette - 60 kts
Kiko - 125 kts
Lorena - 75 kts
Mario - 55 kts


Agreed. And those two CPAC storms (Iona and Keli) do count toward the long term average EOS numbers, which are 15/8/4. The combined basin numbers currently sit at... *drum roll* 15/8/4 as of 9/17!! Even if you don't count those two storms, the numbers are 13/7/3 with plenty of season left. And the combined basin ACE to date is only 10 units below where it should be, which could very easily be made up by the EOS, or even the EOM, for that matter. What that tells me is that the EPAC is only runnning slightly below normal in terms of storm longevity, not intensity.
2 likes   

User avatar
Ulf
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 43
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2024 9:32 pm

Re: 2025 Global ACE: NH - 184.2 (349.9) / NATL - 39.0 (73.7) / EPAC - 88.9 (98.6) / WPAC - 56.3 (168.0) / NIO - 0 (

#30 Postby Ulf » Wed Sep 17, 2025 9:42 pm

AJC3 wrote:
StormWeather wrote:
al78 wrote:Question is, what is suppressing tropical cyclone activity across the entire northern hemisphere? I don't recall a year where every single basin was below average, normally if the Pacific is quiet, the Atlantic is active and vice versa. The NE Pacific has generated a lot of storms but most have been weak systems and the ACE is still below climatology to-date, would have been even quieter without the huge boost from Kiko. The N Indian never spawned anything in its spring period.

Is it really weak when every EPAC system (only EPAC, no CPAC) has peaked at 50 kts or higher?

Alvin - 50 kts
Barbara - 65 kts
Cosme - 60 kts
Dalila - 55 kts
Erick - 125 kts
Flossie - 105 kts
Gil - 65 kts
Henriette (was in CPAC at peak) - 75 kts
Ivo - 55 kts
Juliette - 60 kts
Kiko - 125 kts
Lorena - 75 kts
Mario - 55 kts


Agreed. And those two CPAC storms (Iona and Keli) do count toward the long term average EOS numbers, which are 15/8/4. The combined basin numbers currently sit at... *drum roll* 15/8/4 as of 9/17!! Even if you don't count those two storms, the numbers are 13/7/3 with plenty of season left. And the combined basin ACE to date is only 10 units below where it should be, which could very easily be made up by the EOS, or even the EOM, for that matter. What that tells me is that the EPAC is only runnning slightly below normal in terms of storm longevity, not intensity.


With La Niña condition expected by October, the EPAC basin doesn't have a lot of time left to get its ACE up to climatological average value before it gets shut down.
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 82 guests