2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Hammy]

I don't know what visible indicators there are to tell whether this has happened or not, but I wonder if something similar to 2013 (albeit later since we did have Erin) might've happened given basin-wide shear and intense troughing was a characteristic for that year--or if Erin's sheer size could have itself disrupted the ocean circulation in some way

I don't think Erin's the cause of what we're seeing now as the basin's largely been in an unfavorable state since the beginning of the season. Imo Erin was the equivalent to Andrew in 1992, an anomaly that found a small gap of favorability in an otherwise hostile basin.

Then it goes back to a question of, could there be another issue with the ocean circulation, and (whether that's the case or not) are there any indicators that would point one way or another

That reaching October at 7/1/1 is even on the table at all shows something is clearly wrong with the atmosphere

On an interesting note, the Atlantic has malfunctioned in some way five out of the eight times this list was used: 1983 and 2013 being the obvious ones, 2007 and 2019 having above average named storms and two Cat 5's but largely weak. short lived storms outside of that (and below average hurricanes), and then whatever's going on this year--and all of those ended up drastically underperforming the forecasts in some way (even 1983 had 4 storms and 3 hurricanes compared to 8 and 5 forecast)

[KeysRedWine]

I don't know what visible indicators there are to tell whether this has happened or not, but I wonder if something similar to 2013 (albeit later since we did have Erin) might've happened given basin-wide shear and intense troughing was a characteristic for that year--or if Erin's sheer size could have itself disrupted the ocean circulation in some way

I don't think Erin's the cause of what we're seeing now as the basin's largely been in an unfavorable state since the beginning of the season. Imo Erin was the equivalent to Andrew in 1992, an anomaly that found a small gap of favorability in an otherwise hostile basin.

Then it goes back to a question of, could there be another issue with the ocean circulation, and (whether that's the case or not) are there any indicators that would point one way or another

That reaching October at 7/1/1 is even on the table at all shows something is clearly wrong with the atmosphere

On an interesting note, the Atlantic has malfunctioned in some way five out of the eight times this list was used: 1983 and 2013 being the obvious ones, 2007 and 2019 having above average named storms and two Cat 5's but largely weak. short lived storms outside of that (and below average hurricanes), and then whatever's going on this year--and all of those ended up drastically underperforming the forecasts in some way (even 1983 had 4 storms and 3 hurricanes compared to 8 and 5 forecast)

I don't think it has anything to do with the Atlantic Ocean's thermohaline circulation, as the West Pacific is even more below normal. The entire Northern Hemisphere is considerably below average, likely due to Hadley-cell stretching, and extremely warm mid-latitudes, which decreases instability.

[aspen]

I don't know what visible indicators there are to tell whether this has happened or not, but I wonder if something similar to 2013 (albeit later since we did have Erin) might've happened given basin-wide shear and intense troughing was a characteristic for that year--or if Erin's sheer size could have itself disrupted the ocean circulation in some way

I don't think Erin's the cause of what we're seeing now as the basin's largely been in an unfavorable state since the beginning of the season. Imo Erin was the equivalent to Andrew in 1992, an anomaly that found a small gap of favorability in an otherwise hostile basin.

Then it goes back to a question of, could there be another issue with the ocean circulation, and (whether that's the case or not) are there any indicators that would point one way or another

That reaching October at 7/1/1 is even on the table at all shows something is clearly wrong with the atmosphere

On an interesting note, the Atlantic has malfunctioned in some way five out of the eight times this list was used: 1983 and 2013 being the obvious ones, 2007 and 2019 having above average named storms and two Cat 5's but largely weak. short lived storms outside of that (and below average hurricanes), and then whatever's going on this year--and all of those ended up drastically underperforming the forecasts in some way (even 1983 had 4 storms and 3 hurricanes compared to 8 and 5 forecast)

I wouldn’t call 2019 a “malfunction” season because it still hit ~130 ACE (almost identical to 2018) and produced a few long-tracking majors. It was just a bit of a quantity-over-quality active season that didn’t have anything too abnormal compared to the last few seasons. I do agree with 2007 though, because the contrast between the two Cat 5s and everything else was far more apparent, and it failed to even crack 100 ACE.

Something is definitely off with the atmosphere this year. Not just in the Atlantic — the WPac has been unusually underwhelming this year too. EPac has been carrying the global tropics like Atlas. It feels like every season these last few years has challenged some of our traditional pre-season forecasting and highlighted that there are even more factors we should be giving weight to — or some we aren’t even quite aware of yet.

[StormWeather]

I don't think Erin's the cause of what we're seeing now as the basin's largely been in an unfavorable state since the beginning of the season. Imo Erin was the equivalent to Andrew in 1992, an anomaly that found a small gap of favorability in an otherwise hostile basin.

Then it goes back to a question of, could there be another issue with the ocean circulation, and (whether that's the case or not) are there any indicators that would point one way or another

That reaching October at 7/1/1 is even on the table at all shows something is clearly wrong with the atmosphere

On an interesting note, the Atlantic has malfunctioned in some way five out of the eight times this list was used: 1983 and 2013 being the obvious ones, 2007 and 2019 having above average named storms and two Cat 5's but largely weak. short lived storms outside of that (and below average hurricanes), and then whatever's going on this year--and all of those ended up drastically underperforming the forecasts in some way (even 1983 had 4 storms and 3 hurricanes compared to 8 and 5 forecast)

I wouldn’t call 2019 a “malfunction” season because it still hit ~130 ACE (almost identical to 2018) and produced a few long-tracking majors. It was just a bit of a quantity-over-quality active season that didn’t have anything too abnormal compared to the last few seasons. I do agree with 2007 though, because the contrast between the two Cat 5s and everything else was far more apparent, and it failed to even crack 100 ACE.

Something is definitely off with the atmosphere this year. Not just in the Atlantic — the WPac has been unusually underwhelming this year too. EPac has been carrying the global tropics like Atlas. It feels like every season these last few years has challenged some of our traditional pre-season forecasting and highlighted that there are even more factors we should be giving weight to — or some we aren’t even quite aware of yet.

But the WPAC seems to be about to churn out two powerful storms here soon if Ragasa and Neoguri do get their acts together. So that problem may (for the WPAC) be about to be solved some what.

[Kingarabian]

Unless we get some serious activity in the next 2 weeks and we have a crazy October, its soon time to season cancel. Biggest factor IMO is that the EPAc is on pace to above average in NS. My 2017-esque forecast is very likely to bust.

[chaser1]

Unless we get some serious activity in the next 2 weeks and we have a crazy October, its soon time to season cancel. Biggest factor IMO is that the EPAc is on pace to above average in NS. My 2017-esque forecast is very likely to bust.

Yep, i'd say its probably safe to throw THAT failed lottery ticket down the toilet. Oh wait, here's my 15/7/2 forecast that you can flush along with yours
In fact, I believe there's only 2 of us (S2K) that forecast 13 NS or less for the season and their forecast numbers may even end up too high!

[dexterlabio]

I don't think Erin's the cause of what we're seeing now as the basin's largely been in an unfavorable state since the beginning of the season. Imo Erin was the equivalent to Andrew in 1992, an anomaly that found a small gap of favorability in an otherwise hostile basin.

Then it goes back to a question of, could there be another issue with the ocean circulation, and (whether that's the case or not) are there any indicators that would point one way or another

That reaching October at 7/1/1 is even on the table at all shows something is clearly wrong with the atmosphere

On an interesting note, the Atlantic has malfunctioned in some way five out of the eight times this list was used: 1983 and 2013 being the obvious ones, 2007 and 2019 having above average named storms and two Cat 5's but largely weak. short lived storms outside of that (and below average hurricanes), and then whatever's going on this year--and all of those ended up drastically underperforming the forecasts in some way (even 1983 had 4 storms and 3 hurricanes compared to 8 and 5 forecast)

I wouldn’t call 2019 a “malfunction” season because it still hit ~130 ACE (almost identical to 2018) and produced a few long-tracking majors. It was just a bit of a quantity-over-quality active season that didn’t have anything too abnormal compared to the last few seasons. I do agree with 2007 though, because the contrast between the two Cat 5s and everything else was far more apparent, and it failed to even crack 100 ACE.

Something is definitely off with the atmosphere this year. Not just in the Atlantic — the WPac has been unusually underwhelming this year too. EPac has been carrying the global tropics like Atlas. It feels like every season these last few years has challenged some of our traditional pre-season forecasting and highlighted that there are even more factors we should be giving weight to — or some we aren’t even quite aware of yet.

Wouldn't call the dead WPAC this year as unusual, given that the first two or three years after an El Niño (2023) are likely to be record low ACE contenders. Just see 1998-1999, 2010-2011, 2017, and 2020-2022. The Atlantic, on the other hand, is supposed to be having an average year, at least.

[LarryWx]

Although 2014 was about as slow as 2025 on this date (only 3 fewer ACE), it didn’t get any more ACE after today til Oct 11th. So, due to Gabrielle, 2025 should be well ahead of 2014 by mid to late next week.

 At this point, 2022 actually had 4 fewer ACE than 2025. However, Fiona was just becoming a MH and about to add a lot of ACE along with Ian becoming an H a week from now. So, 2025 is progged to soon fall well behind 2022. Regardless, 2022 ended with only 94 meaning 2025 could conceivably approach that if Gabrielle were to get strong along with an active October.

 Although 2015 on this date had 2 more NS than 2025, it actually had 14 fewer ACE and didn’t reach the current 2025 level of ACE til early Oct. It finished with only 63. So, if Gabrielle were to get strong, 2025 would have a good shot at exceeding the entire 2015 with additional significant activity by early Oct.

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1969080096775389209

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Unless we have an October 2020-esque activity outbreak, this season will end up only being a slightly more impressive version of the 1997 hurricane season only thanks to Erin

[StormWeather]

Unless we have an October 2020-esque activity outbreak, this season will end up only being a slightly more impressive version of the 1997 hurricane season only thanks to Erin

Tbh, the closer we get to the end of the season with so little activity, the more I am worrying that this could be our first below average season since 2014.

Not saying it will be below average, but I wouldn’t rule out an active end to the season since as we approach the late fall, extratropical cyclones get stronger and lower in latitude, which could churn up that warmth bottled up off the U.S. West Coast and possibly reduce the strain on the Atlantic, allowing for a more active setup due to the a building La Niña configuration.

[LarryWx]

Unless we have an October 2020-esque activity outbreak, this season will end up only being a slightly more impressive version of the 1997 hurricane season only thanks to Erin

Tbh, the closer we get to the end of the season with so little activity, the more I am worrying that this could be our first below average season since 2014.

Not saying it will be below average, but I wouldn’t rule out an active end to the season since as we approach the late fall, extratropical cyclones get stronger and lower in latitude, which could churn up that warmth bottled up off the U.S. West Coast and possibly reduce the strain on the Atlantic, allowing for a more active setup due to the a building La Niña configuration.

2022 (ACE) and 2015 were also BN. Actually based on stats, a BN season is likely now. It would take a 2024, 20, 16, 05, 1894, 1893, or 1878 type of Oct+ for 2025 just to get to the 30 yr 122 ACE average. And 3 of those 7 years were hyperactive with very high activity before Oct. Only 2016 and 1894 were near the current 2025 level of activity and even they were slightly ahead.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1969080096775389209

I assume that will become a part of seasonal outlooks going ahead. I know CSU dropped Sahel rainfall (although it got a mention in the in-season forecast) and QBO. I don't know if QBO will ever come back as one of the CSU forecast tools. Along with NPac SSTs.

[MarioProtVI]

Unless we have an October 2020-esque activity outbreak, this season will end up only being a slightly more impressive version of the 1997 hurricane season only thanks to Erin

Tbh, the closer we get to the end of the season with so little activity, the more I am worrying that this could be our first below average season since 2014.

Not saying it will be below average, but I wouldn’t rule out an active end to the season since as we approach the late fall, extratropical cyclones get stronger and lower in latitude, which could churn up that warmth bottled up off the U.S. West Coast and possibly reduce the strain on the Atlantic, allowing for a more active setup due to the a building La Niña configuration.

2022 (ACE) and 2015 were also BN. Actually based on stats, a BN season is likely now. It would take a 2024, 20, 16, 05, 1894, 1893, or 1878 type of Oct+ for 2025 just to get to the 30 yr 122 ACE average. And 3 of those 7 years were hyperactive with very high activity before Oct. Only 2016 and 1894 were near the current 2025 level of activity and even they were slightly ahead.

2022 was not below normal. Average ACE is 75 which 2022 ended with 95. All other stats were near-average.

[LarryWx]

Tbh, the closer we get to the end of the season with so little activity, the more I am worrying that this could be our first below average season since 2014.

Not saying it will be below average, but I wouldn’t rule out an active end to the season since as we approach the late fall, extratropical cyclones get stronger and lower in latitude, which could churn up that warmth bottled up off the U.S. West Coast and possibly reduce the strain on the Atlantic, allowing for a more active setup due to the a building La Niña configuration.

2022 (ACE) and 2015 were also BN. Actually based on stats, a BN season is likely now. It would take a 2024, 20, 16, 05, 1894, 1893, or 1878 type of Oct+ for 2025 just to get to the 30 yr 122 ACE average. And 3 of those 7 years were hyperactive with very high activity before Oct. Only 2016 and 1894 were near the current 2025 level of activity and even they were slightly ahead.

2022 was not below normal. Average ACE is 75 which 2022 ended with 95. All other stats were near-average.

I’m talking about 95 being BN ACE based on the 1991-2020 avg of 122.

[canes92]

Unless we have an October 2020-esque activity outbreak, this season will end up only being a slightly more impressive version of the 1997 hurricane season only thanks to Erin

Tbh, the closer we get to the end of the season with so little activity, the more I am worrying that this could be our first below average season since 2014.

Not saying it will be below average, but I wouldn’t rule out an active end to the season since as we approach the late fall, extratropical cyclones get stronger and lower in latitude, which could churn up that warmth bottled up off the U.S. West Coast and possibly reduce the strain on the Atlantic, allowing for a more active setup due to the a building La Niña configuration.

It would be a good thing to have a below average season. Less chances of getting struck by hurricane.

[Category5Kaiju]

What's really interesting (at least thus far) this season is that every hurricane that developed also became a major hurricane (I mean, it's only 2, but still). No Cat 1s or 2s so far. Remains to be seen what the remaining AOIs do (quite a few models turn at least the easternmost one into a noticeable system).

[TomballEd]

No reason to season cancel when recent history suggests there will be a Caribbean to E. Gulf threat in October. Depending on when they downgrade Gabrielle as it heads NE in the North Atlantic there could be some serious ACE there. Euro enesembles like the cherry AOI with some major hurricanes included.

Euro weeklies seem to see systems still forming in the Atlantic in mid-October and curving out to sea, although Florida and North Carolina are in the risk areas. Nothing for the Northern Gulf.

The remnants of the weak and unimpressive Barry might be the biggest tropical cyclone impact of the year if we don't get the October Eastern Gulf system.

[chaser1]

What's really interesting (at least thus far) this season is that every hurricane that developed also became a major hurricane (I mean, it's only 2, but still). No Cat 1s or 2s so far. Remains to be seen what the remaining AOIs do (quite a few models turn at least the easternmost one into a noticeable system).

Crazier yet? Let's say NHC's current "cherry" turns into Humberto and also, becomes a Major? Then, I'll guess the other present wave approaching 55W will have trouble developing while fighting for inflow. I'd sure home that GFS solution at about 315 hr's doesn't win the coveted "I - storm name"

[galaxy401]

Only 48 hours later, and things are suggesting otherwise. Had a Category 4 hurricane and a new storm that will probably be the third major. And who knows what the other Invest does.

This season looks like a near repeat of 2024 so far.