NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

Here we go, and some doubt but I still think this is a TD.

https://i.imgur.com/ZcSYDcK.gif

I'd bet if I had a gun to my head that recon would find 35 knt winds within some of that convection for an upgrade to a tropical storm. That is a well defined LLC and there is little doubt that it meets the standard for an upgrade...It is up to ascat and satellite estimates without recon on rather it is a depression or storm.

[TallyTracker]

Those visible shots are about as solid of evidence as you can get without recon or surface observations that this has a closed circulation. I’m expecting the upgrade at 5 pm. May even be a TS by then with the improving convective coverage.

[StormWeather]

This is probably going straight to Tropical Storm Humberto at 5pm as the 18Z ATCF has 35 kts.

AL, 93, 2025092418, , BEST, 0, 198N, 545W, 35, 1008, LO,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932025.dat

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/StormHQwx/status/1970932771360321771

[zzzh]

AL, 08, 2025092418, , BEST, 0, 198N, 545W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, TRANSITIONED, alB32025 to al082025,

[StormWeather]

AL, 08, 2025092418, , BEST, 0, 198N, 545W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, TRANSITIONED, alB32025 to al082025,

Well, here’s Humberto. Will it continue its hurricane streak? Models seem to think so.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I already lost one roof to a Hurricane Humberto. Not pleased to see this name again on a similar route!

[BobHarlem]

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1970944058181787720


NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Humberto, located over the central tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

First forecast is aggressive with 95kts and strengthening in 5 days. Could become the third major of the season.

[kevin]

A new storm, a new list update. Here's a list of the most aggressive first advisories based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs). At the end of the name I have added the verified peak intensity in kt for each storm.

120 kt
2023 - Lee (145)

105 kt
2024 - Kirk (130)
2023 - Nigel (85)

100 kt
2025 - Erin (140)
2021 - Sam (135)
2010 - Tomas (85)

95 kt
2025 - Humberto (-)
2024 - Milton (155)
2024 - Helene (120)
2024 - Ernesto (85)
2022 - Ian (140)
2021 - Ida (130)
2020 - Iota (135)
2019 - Lorenzo (140)
2012 - Isaac (70)
2010 - Danielle (115)
2005 - Philippe (70)
2004 - Karl (110)

90 kt
2024 - Beryl (145)
2021 - Larry (110)
2017 - Jose (135)
2016 - Matthew (145)
2009 - Bill (115)
2007 - Dean (150)

85 kt
2020 - Delta (120)
2015 - Danny (110)
2014 - Gonzalo (125)
2011 - Katia (120)
2010 - Igor (135)
2010 - Earl (125)
2006 - Helene (105)
2005 - Wilma (160)

80 kt
2024 - Leslie (90)
2022 - Danielle (75)
2020 - Teddy (120)
2019 - Jerry (90)
2017 - Maria (150)
2017 - Irma (155)
2016 - Gaston (105)
2012 - Leslie (70)
2005 - Rita (155)
2004 - Earl (45)
1999 - Emily (45)

[Kazmit]

I already lost one roof to a Hurricane Humberto. Not pleased to see this name again on a similar route!

Was just thinking how funny it is that the last Humberto hit us too.

[aspen]

Looks like we’re going to have another MH Humberto passing close to Bermuda at some point during its life. Hopefully it doesn’t make a direct hit anywhere. And maybe it’ll eat up 94L before it could develop into something that may threaten the East Coast.

If 94L develops and becomes a hurricane alongside Humberto, that’s going to be one insane progression from an utterly dead first half of September.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

A new storm, a new list update. Here's a list of the most aggressive first advisories based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs). At the end of the name I have added the verified peak intensity in kt for each storm.

120 kt
2023 - Lee (145)

105 kt
2024 - Kirk (130)
2023 - Nigel (85)

100 kt
2025 - Erin (140)
2021 - Sam (135)
2010 - Tomas (85)

95 kt
2025 - Humberto (-)
2024 - Milton (155)
2024 - Helene (120)
2024 - Ernesto (85)
2022 - Ian (140)
2021 - Ida (130)
2020 - Iota (135)
2019 - Lorenzo (140)
2012 - Isaac (70)
2010 - Danielle (115)
2005 - Philippe (70)
2004 - Karl (110)

90 kt
2024 - Beryl (145)
2021 - Larry (110)
2017 - Jose (135)
2016 - Matthew (145)
2009 - Bill (115)
2007 - Dean (150)

85 kt
2020 - Delta (120)
2015 - Danny (110)
2014 - Gonzalo (125)
2011 - Katia (120)
2010 - Igor (135)
2010 - Earl (125)
2006 - Helene (105)
2005 - Wilma (160)

80 kt
2024 - Leslie (90)
2022 - Danielle (75)
2020 - Teddy (120)
2019 - Jerry (90)
2017 - Maria (150)
2017 - Irma (155)
2016 - Gaston (105)
2012 - Leslie (70)
2005 - Rita (155)
2004 - Earl (45)
1999 - Emily (45)

Looks like a strong trend of these high initial advisories being underestimates! That is a very unexpected finding.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Humberto sounds like a name Stan Lee would give to a hurricane. Peter Parker. Steven Strange. Hurricane Humberto…

[wxman57]

A new storm, a new list update. Here's a list of the most aggressive first advisories based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs). At the end of the name I have added the verified peak intensity in kt for each storm.

Sometimes a quick development like Humberto is due to not recognizing it was already a depression before this afternoon. We've had no ASCAT hits on it over the past couple of days. It was at least a depression at sunrise today. Humberto (2007) developed very quickly near Galveston.

[abajan]

Levi posted his update a couple hours ago:



Link: https://youtu.be/whSpU8gOJn8

[cycloneye]

AL, 08, 2025092500, , BEST, 0, 205N, 554W, 35, 1008, TS

[cycloneye]

Is now forecast to reach major cane status.

96H 29/0000Z 26.3N 66.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 30.1N 68.9W 100 KT 115 MPH

[Sciencerocks]