Most aggressive First Advisories vs. their actual intensity

[Teban54]

Updated October 7, 2025.

Not often do you see the NHC forecast a Cat 3+ major hurricane - or even a Cat 2 - on Advisory #1. And very often (but not always), such storms end up overperforming the already aggressive initial fore
casts.

Here's a list of the most aggressive first advisories based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs). At the end of the name is the verified peak intensity in kt for each storm.

This list was developed by kevin, and most recently posted in the thread for Humberto 2025, the latest addition. With how often the list has been referenced in recent years, I feel it's time for a dedicated thread.

Formatting (that I added):

• Storms are color-coded by verified peak category within 123 hours of Advisory #1: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5. (The 123-hour time frame extends the actual final forecast point by 6 hours, to allow leeway due to advisory times being offset from synoptic times by 3 hours.)
• Storms that underperformed are underlined.
• Storms that overperformed by at least 40 kts are in bold.

[Forecast Cat 4 peak]

120 kt

• 2023 - Lee (145)

[Forecast Cat 3 peak]

105 kt

• 2024 - Kirk (130)
• 2023 - Nigel (85)

100 kt

• 2025 - Erin (140)
• 2021 - Sam (135)
• 2010 - Tomas (85)

[Forecast Cat 2 peak]

95 kt

• 2025 - Humberto (140)
• 2024 - Milton (155)
• 2024 - Helene (120)
• 2024 - Ernesto (85)
• 2022 - Ian (140)
• 2021 - Ida (130)
• 2020 - Iota (135)
• 2019 - Lorenzo (125 in 5 days, 140 overall)
• 2012 - Isaac (55 in 5 days, 70 overall)
• 2010 - Danielle (90 in 5 days, 115 overall)
• 2005 - Philippe (70)
• 2004 - Karl (125)

90 kt

• 2024 - Beryl (145)
• 2021 - Larry (110)
• 2017 - Jose (135)
• 2016 - Matthew (145)
• 2009 - Bill (115)
• 2007 - Dean (145 in 5 days, 150 overall)

85 kt

• 2020 - Delta (120)
• 2015 - Danny (110)
• 2014 - Gonzalo (125)
• 2011 - Katia (65 in 5 days, 120 overall)
• 2010 - Igor (130 in 5 days, 135 overall)
• 2010 - Earl (115 in 5 days, 125 overall)
• 2006 - Helene (90 in 5 days, 105 overall)
• 2005 - Wilma (160)

[Forecast Cat 1 peak (80 kts only)]

80 kt

• 2025 - Jerry (-)
• 2024 - Leslie (80 in 5 days, 90 overall)
• 2023 - Margot (75 in 5 days, 80 overall)
• 2022 - Danielle (75)
• 2020 - Teddy (120)
• 2019 - Jerry (90)
• 2017 - Maria (150)
• 2017 - Irma (115 in 5 days, 155 overall)
• 2016 - Gaston (65 in 5 days, 105 overall)
• 2012 - Leslie (60 in 5 days, 70 overall)
• 2005 - Rita (155)
• 2004 - Earl (45)
• 1999 - Emily (45)

[Teban54]

Now that Jerry's first advisory is out with a forecast peak of 80 kts, I've updated this post.

Other changes:

• Added the distinction between actual peak within 123 hrs (the forecast period of Advisory #1) vs. during the lifetime of a storm. (The 123-hour time frame extends the actual final forecast point by 6 hours, to allow leeway due to advisory times being offset from synoptic times by 3 hours.)
• Changed the color scheme for better distinction and readability. Cat 5 is now pink.
• Added Humberto 2025's actual intensity (pending TCR changes).
• Added Margot 2023 (80 kts forecast on Advisory #1), which was missing.
• Fixed Karl 2004's actual intensity.

Interestingly, this is the second time that the name Jerry appeared on the list -- in the same section as the previous Jerry in 2019 (80 kts forecast). Four other names have appeared on this list twice: Danielle, Earl, Helene and Leslie.