2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Teban54]

Only 48 hours later and things are suggesting otherwise. Had a Category 4 hurricane and a new storm that will probably be the third major. And who knows what the other Invest does.

This season looks like a near repeat of 2024 so far.

In fact, 2025's sudden uptick is even slightly earlier than 2024's, albeit only by a few days. Gabrielle became a major on 9/22, and by 9/23 it was clear that we'll likely get yet another major. Even though 2024's early and mid September wasn't as dead as this year's, its reputation only started to really turn around with Helene, which formed on 9/24 and became the second MH of the season two days later.

[psyclone]

Well it seems as if we have exited the peak season dead streak and may actually stack some ace and use some names.

[CrazyC83]

How does this season compare to 1988 and 2007 in terms of the overall environmental patterns? It seems those have become comparable seasons.

[aspen]

What’s perhaps even more remarkable about this season’s majors and Cat 5s is how minimal land impacts have been. Both Cat 5s reached their peaks in very similar spots north of the islands, and depending on Humberto’s track, should both finish without any major land impacts. Gabrielle avoided significant Bermuda impacts too.

Compare this to last year’s majors. Beryl brought significant impacts to the Lesser Antilles and Texas, then once activity began picking up again in late September, Helene clobbered Florida and the Carolinas.

I can’t recall any other season where its first 3 majors all spared the US and islands of any notable impacts — much less a season where both Cat 5s did too. Just adds to 2025’s weirdness. We’re fortunate that many of the ways 2025 has been odd have led to a low-impact season for now.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/P_SimmsWX/status/1972036181836943536

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/P_SimmsWX/status/1972036181836943536

It's also interesting that this wake-up from the lull happened globally, most notably in WPAC and NATL, just like the lull itself.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/P_SimmsWX/status/1972036181836943536

It's also interesting that this wake-up from the lull happened globally, most notably in WPAC and NATL, just like the lull itself.

Dont leave out EPAC as Kiko was impressive.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/P_SimmsWX/status/1972036181836943536

It's also interesting that this wake-up from the lull happened globally, most notably in WPAC and NATL, just like the lull itself.

Dont leave out EPAC as Kiko was impressive.

I did consider Kiko, but the feeling of a lull never applied to EPAC as clearly and strongly as the other two basins (partly due to Kiko itself). EPAC has been running much closer to climo ACE and storm counts than WPAC and NATL, with a roughly constant rate of genesis since Iona and several hurricanes among them (albeit often weak). Also, the times at which WPAC's and ATL's underperformance were felt the most strongly was also exactly when Kiko existed.

Perhaps this may argue that a large part of the lulls were due to intraseasonal variations, although it does make you wonder if there's something else causing it.

[gatorcane]

WCAR is definitely the place to watch especially starting in the mid-October timeframe with the models showing a CAG developing. SSTs are quite a bit above normal and the EPAC anomalies are lower with a La Niña look: