Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[SFLcane]

But Euro strongest is TS vs 70 mb lower MH GFS

Yes I edited my post. Land interaction otherwise would have ramped up to MH.

So far out, any lifting North or avoiding the Yuc could still mean hurricane

Yes the ensemble trend today which one should use either way this far out in time was away from CA but could go the other way tonight. Model consensus is for trofiness across the southeast for the most part if we have a strong identity in the NW carib it could very well get yanked northward which puts cuba,keys fl and risk.

we shall see.

[LarryWx]

Just gotta keep watching well see later this wk.

https://i.postimg.cc/zfJmCgCQ/vvv.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Kcd8n011/cccc.png

-At hour 318 on 12Z EPS, I count 18 (36%) with a H with 11 in Car vs 7 in SW ATL
-JMA has a 1009 TD forming in the Caribbean.
-Although last 2 UK dropped TCG through 168, 12Z vort/sfc suggests a TD is about to form in the C Car
- So, although support is almost gone for E of Car TCG, that has shifted to about now every model other than CMC having TCG in the C Car, which is the most favored area for TCG (W of 70W) mid to late Oct:

Oct 11-20:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_11_20.png

Oct 21-31:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_21_31.png

[blp]

Yes I edited my post. Land interaction otherwise would have ramped up to MH.

So far out, any lifting North or avoiding the Yuc could still mean hurricane

Yes the ensemble trend today which one should use either way this far out in time was away from CA but could go the other way tonight. Model consensus is for trofiness across the southeast for the most part if we have a strong identity in the NW carib it could very well get yanked northward which puts cuba,keys fl and risk.

we shall see.

Euro ensembles north trend today.

00z


12z

[blp]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1978199205547225386

[floridasun]

my miami weather man say going stay moving west end up boc and mexico

[Fancy1002]

my miami weather man say going stay moving west end up boc and mexico

I think it’s way too early to say that with any level of certainty

[Fancy1002]

It looks to me like there are two Caribbean systems trying to develop on this latest GFS

[Kazmit]

Close enough, welcome back Hurricane Sandy.

[cycloneye]

Here is the wave approaching 25W moving westward.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 24W, from
16N southward across portions of the western Cabo Verde Islands,
moving W at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 04N to
16N between 20W and 30W.

[Ptarmigan]

yea..

https://i.postimg.cc/Dw1PyKFr/gfs-simir-watl-1.gif

If that panned out, that would be a disaster.

[Ptarmigan]

Close enough, welcome back Hurricane Sandy.

https://i.ibb.co/tT7R66n0/IMG-5364.png

Sandy's revenge?

[Fancy1002]

Close enough, welcome back Hurricane Sandy.

https://i.ibb.co/tT7R66n0/IMG-5364.png

Sandy's revenge?

Same time too.

[Fancy1002]

00z icon is exactly as expected, a solid low developing into tropical storm as it enters the central Caribbean.

Let’s see if the 00 gfs is as interesting as today’s happy hour.

[LarryWx]

0Z Icon consistent with last few runs and has TCG 10/21 with TS moving slowly W 10/22 in S Car well S of Haiti.

[chaser1]

Not quite able to say a whole hell of a lot about this one yet but it certainly is embedded in what would appear to be a fairly "moisture-rich" pouch. The only early model takeaway thus far is that this disturbance will seemingly continue with this month's zippy Easterly trades program.

That alone is what might suggest that a couple early to mid November tropical waves might well slug westward during the twilight of the 2025 season several weeks from now.

[blp]

0Z Icon consistent with last few runs and has TCG 10/21 with TS moving slowly W 10/22 in S Car well S of Haiti.

Yeah starting to ramping up toward the end. Conditons are favorable.

[chaser1]

00z icon is exactly as expected, a solid low developing into tropical storm as it enters the central Caribbean.

Let’s see if the 00 gfs is as interesting as today’s happy hour.

I've gotta think that the 0Z GFS will be a fair degree more muted then it's Happy Hour run suggested. Perhaps a stronger version of the 0Z ICON would be my guess.

[blp]

GFS ramping up sooner than 18z jist south of Hispanola 70W is the magic longitude.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point the GFS, ICON, and CMC at least all seem to be in good consensus that we're going to have a decently coherent storm in the Caribbean Sea by the end of next week.

[blp]

Stalled for 24 hrs south of Hispaniola. Now moving NW.