NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

AL, 98, 2025101812, , BEST, 0, 117N, 499W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 140, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035, SPAWNINVEST, al772025 to al982025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982025.dat


Thread that was the topic for this wave at talking tropics forum.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=125048

A long thread has just started. I think this could either become another bust or a relentless and powerful Category 5 hurricane.

[Teban54]

Many possible analogs with this one:

• Nothing at all
• Sara 2024, which stalled so close to land that it never managed to strengthen more than a TS (despite otherwise ideal conditions)
• Lenny 1999 and Omar 2008, which got "picked up" by the trough and moved northeast or east
• Flora 1963-ish, which stalled too close to the Greater Antilles to really take advantage of Western Caribbean, but still dumped tons of rain on the islands
• Wilma and Mitch, which stalled at the perfect place in Western Caribbean and bombed out

[Fancy1002]

This is going to be a very confusing storm, I can already tell, especially if that secondary storm also forms on the GFS. It’ll be Imelda and Humberto all over again.

[Category5Kaiju]

A long thread has just started. I think this could either become another bust or a relentless and powerful Category 5 hurricane.

Indeed. Although given some of the synoptics that seem to be unfolding (very strong, consistent model support, favorable MJO period, late October climatology), odds are I think this will more than likely amount to something trackable rather than be a 91L-level bust.

[Fancy1002]

I’m asking this here since there’s no model thread yet. Will we be starting to get the hurricane models in the 12 Z run, or will we have to wait for 18 Z?

[Fancy1002]

Many possible analogs with this one:

• Nothing at all
• Sara 2024, which stalled so close to land that it never managed to strengthen more than a TS (despite otherwise ideal conditions)
• Lenny 1999 and Omar 2008, which got "picked up" by the trough and moved northeast or east
• Flora 1963-ish, which stalled too close to the Greater Antilles to really take advantage of Western Caribbean, but still dumped tons of rain on the islands
• Wilma and Mitch, which stalled at the perfect place in Western Caribbean and bombed out

The last few GFS runs have been relatively insistent on drowning Hispañola.

[Category5Kaiju]

Worth noting that the Caribbean waters where 98L seems to be headed toward are....very warm, to say the least. Currently warmer than anywhere in the EPAC and more comparable with WPAC warmth near the Philippines.

[ouragans]

Invest with 0/30... as far as I can remember, this is the 1st time

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025


East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Earlier satellite wind data indicated the system
lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph
to the north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conductive for slow development over the next couple of
days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, crossing
the Windward Islands and entering the Caribbean Sea by early next
week. By the middle of next week, the system is expected to slow
down over the central Caribbean Sea, where environmental conditions
could become more favorable for further development. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday and Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[chaser1]

Naked Swirl Alert - 12.5N & 53W (appears to be between 850mb & surface)

[weathaguyry]

Very high heat content in the Western Caribbean as usual, 98L is definitely something to watch.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Visualization01/cData/Blended/OHC/NATL/OHC-PNG/OHC-PNG_NATL_20251018.png

Very high heat content in the Western Caribbean as usual, 98L is definitely something to watch.

What does the color graph below represent?

[cycloneye]

According to todays TCPOD, there will not be recon to investigate the wave until next tuesday unless there are changes at the last minute.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 18 OCTOBER 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-139

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[chaser1]

According to todays TCPOD, there will not be recon to investigate the wave until next tuesday unless there are changes at the last minute.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 18 OCTOBER 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-139

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Makes sense, although flying the Gulfstream out there wouldn't be a bad idea for gathering some added data for the globals to crunch.

[SFLcane]

Worth noting that the Caribbean waters where 98L seems to be headed toward are....very warm, to say the least. Currently warmer than anywhere in the EPAC and more comparable with WPAC warmth near the Philippines.

https://i.imgur.com/jwOsvpp.png

Yes it’s very warm but fyi this only matters if we have a strong tc over that area which is certainly possible in this case lots of unknowns could even end up in the epac or not develop at all.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025


1. East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. This system is expected to move quickly westward at
20 to 25 mph, crossing the Windward Islands during the next day or
so. By the middle to latter part of next week, environmental
conditions could become more favorable for development, and a
tropical depression could form while the system slows down over the
central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward
Islands Sunday into Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Visualization01/cData/Blended/OHC/NATL/OHC-PNG/OHC-PNG_NATL_20251018.png

Very high heat content in the Western Caribbean as usual, 98L is definitely something to watch.

What does the color graph below represent?

It represents the depth which the warm water goes to

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track: Is moving very fast but will slowdown in the Caribbean Sea.

AL, 98, 2025101900, , BEST, 0, 126N, 551W, 30, 1010, DB

[Sciencerocks]