NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[GCANE]

Very likely tapping into the EPAC moisture.
Appears to be a feeder band forming from Panama.

[kevin]

Center moving SSW based on the second pass. Could of course be a wobble so let's wait for the third pass. But that would be an unexpected development.

[WaveBreaking]

All hurricane models show Melissa forming a new LLC under a blob of convection in about a day and then restrengthening btw, so I feel like even though it will probably look dead tomorrow, it'll most likely only be a pulse-down phase (think Gabrielle from earlier this year).

I stand corrected. Looks like it’s already trying to get going this morning.

[cycloneye]

Center moving SSW based on the second pass. Could of course be a wobble so let's wait for the third pass. But that would be an unexpected development.

[MGC]

Upper level flow will be shifting from the SW later today. This is what the GFS has been seeing the past few days. Should tilt or perhaps decouple the MCL to the NE from Melissa. I don't agree with a landfall on Hispaniola but it is possible the far western Tiburon Peninsula could be impacted. Still think Jamaica and Cuba are at greatest risk. Hopefully the cyclone landfalls in Jamaica and does not have the opportunity to develop into a major hurricane tracking south of the island before recurving......MGC

[Teban54]

From the 11am EDT discussion:

The end intensity could be conservative if Melissa ends up further
south of Jamaica with less land interaction, as suggested by the 00z
ECMWF and HAFS guidance.

[cycloneye]

Center moving SSW based on the second pass. Could of course be a wobble so let's wait for the third pass. But that would be an unexpected development.

https://i.imgur.com/ONWjUdr.png

It is doing the reorganization thing doing mini loops. Third pass was SSE.

[TomballEd]

Is the new blob to the NW of the main blob the LLC developing convection?

https://i.imgur.com/LuPg5cR.gif

I believe it was. 1006 mb, it may finally have convection upstream of the center but it is still quite week.

Edit for week/weak error.

[Sanibel]

Opening back up in to a wave or slowly transitioning to West Caribbean?...

[Flwxguy86]

With more of a bend to the west, and the ridge being "centered to the northwest" I really think your gonna be looking at this storm knocking on the door of the gulf sometime next week, I think the models are gonna start catching up to that fact over the weekend and start showing it. I just hope if that is the case that some of these models that have it bomb out in to the 880's are overblown but I fear there not when its forecasted to be at 130MPH in 72 hours, with plenty of warm deep ocean to cover..I am looking forward to sunday when it seems like they will finally have a good handle on what's gonna happen.

[GCANE]

Hmm.
Seeing an interesting eddy in water-vapor imagery at just south of 15N 76W.
Shear is pretty low here and anti-cyclone is moving toward this area.

[sasha_B]

A circular eyewall (open to the southwest) was noted on the last VDM, with an eye 46 nm in diameter. Melissa is undoubtedly getting better-organised this morning, though as the NHC's discussion noted, it may be another 24 hours or so before the shear lets up enough for her to get a chance at rapid intensification.

[zzzh]

F. OPEN SW
G. C46

Latest VDM. What is going on here?

[GCANE]

Hmm.
Seeing an interesting eddy in water-vapor imagery at just south of 15N 76W.
Shear is pretty low here and anti-cyclone is moving toward this area.

Looking even more interesting on Visible satellite.
The tell will be if recon heads that way.

[kevin]

Hmm.
Seeing an interesting eddy in water-vapor imagery at just south of 15N 76W.
Shear is pretty low here and anti-cyclone is moving toward this area.

Looking even more interesting on Visible satellite.
The tell will be if recon heads that way.

I see it as well. Could pull the center farther SW over the coming hours. Not sure what that would do to the long-term track, but the recent behavior of Melissa is very intricate and imo possibly too complex/small-scale for models (even the hurricane models) to get a handle on. Even if the center relocation doesn't continue, no models (even the ones from a few hours ago) had the SSW motion that Melissa just made.

[cheezyWXguy]

Think we are seeing the very initial stages of core consolidation here, and the intense towers popping up in different areas are interesting. Not sure how long the eyewall reported by recon will last, I’d guess it’s just an intermittent feature as the system organizes and we will ultimately have a smaller core when all is said and done. That said, I wouldn’t expect that for another day or two

[cycloneye]

I recommend all to see this great video from Levi Cowan that is simply, pure 101.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1981396301444170107

[zzzh]

Latest dropsonde has 1004mb/27kt. The pressure is finally dropping

[cycloneye]

Look at the X of the 2 PM position where it is. To the left of the other points of the 11 AM track and that means at 5 PM, NHC will move slightly west the oficial track.

[kevin]

At first I thought a Jamaica landfall could prevent Melissa from becoming "too strong" (aka a cat 1 or less) before it inevitably strikes a populated area. But with that latest model cycle showing a cat 4/5 Jamaica landfall, I fear we're looking at a lose/lose and it'll be catastrophic no matter what happens. Maybe the best case scenario is a bombing out phase south of Jamaica and missing the island followed by EWRCs weakening Melissa.