NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[GCANE]

Seeing radial fingers on IR now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[GCANE]

Hopefully there is an EWRC underway while on approach to Jamaica

[ScottNAtlanta]

Visible Satellite showing rapid convergence at the mid-levels.
This will work down to the surface before sunset.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

I wouldn’t be surprised if this drill down process were attempting to take place right now, that mlc looks vigorous, especially with upper level outflow beginning to increase radially from the center of that main burst. The current llc centered on the nw side of this burst seems to be losing influence. I wonder how long it will be before recon starts seeing evidence of this process.

Recon really is hitting that area. They've looped around and are going back to it

[GCANE]

Massive helicity on Water Vapor imagery.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[ljmac75]

11am cone now shows a 130 kt landfall in Jamaica.

If this verifies this would be the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in Jamaica.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WeatherMonitors/status/1981720259221434833

[Teban54]

11am cone now shows a 130 kt landfall in Jamaica.

If this verifies this would be the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in Jamaica.

The advisory also had an ominous note about why:

Every single Google DeepMind member shows the
system become a Category 4 hurricane or higher, and the uncertainty
is more related on the timing of when RI occurs. [...] The latest NHC intensity forecast is
on the higher end of the model solutions, but more or less in line
with the latest GDMI guidance.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks. The winds are going up now as the AF plane continues the mission.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 59kt at 15:58z
Peak SFMR: 58kt at 15:57z

[sasha_B]

Recon is observing 50～60 kt flight-level winds, and Melissa's satellite presentation is still improving. If that trend persists, I think it's quite possible that the NHC will go with 45 kts on the 18z advisory, which would be in line with their forecasts from last night.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it survived the Caribbean Graveyard (to say the least)...

[zzzh]

Extrap pressure down to 999.5mb

[Sciencerocks]

[Buck]

Recon is observing 50～60 kt flight-level winds, and Melissa's satellite presentation is still improving. If that trend persists, I think it's quite possible that the NHC will go with 45 kts on the 18z advisory, which would be in line with their forecasts from last night.

Special advisory:

12:30 PM EDT Fri Oct 24
Location: 15.6°N 74.5°W
Moving: ESE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1981426269855121660

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon suggests we are seeing more of a “meeting in the middle” scenario where the mlc and llc are converging, rather than a scenario where the mlc drills down to the surface and the old llc is discarded. Intensification looks to be occurring faster now.

[GCANE]

Now 80mm/hr rain rate
A monster in the making

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

[GCANE]

Tropical Storm Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1230 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT MELISSA IS STRENGTHENING...

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicates that
Melissa is strengthening, and maximum sustained winds are now
estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum
pressure from aircraft dropsonde data has dropped to 999 mb
(29.50 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1230 PM EDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 74.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

[underthwx]

Does Melissa have the potential to affect Florida?

[zzzh]

[Iceresistance]

I do not like the look of Melissa

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3dLD.png