NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Those radar images suggest the outer eyewall is already very well formed and the moat is very narrow. Should be a smoother than average transition to the new eyewall, if not an outright meld, during the overnight hours. I wonder what intensity recon will find this at shortly.

[USTropics]

Recon is about 50 miles NW of Jamaica, so they might arrive to sample the peak

I honestly think we're looking at a Milton scenario here, recon should get there to sample this peak. If our hurricane models are correct, we're looking at another peak in ~36 hours, HAFS-A and HAFS-B modeled the pressure to get down to 910mb. The only variable that can prevent Melissa from reaching MPI is literally an internal structure change like an EWRC. We'll have to wait and see when that occurs and how it needs to recover after, but definitely a catastrophic scenario that is going to unfold on Tuesday in Jamaica.

[BobHarlem]

Long range radar loop (the short range one hasn't been updated in a few hours)

[zhukm29]

Looks like a perfectly circular donut... with still another day over the warmest waters of the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Recon is about 50 miles NW of Jamaica, so they might arrive to sample the peak

I honestly think we're looking at a Milton scenario here, recon should get there to sample this peak. If our hurricane models are correct, we're looking at another peak in ~36 hours, HAFS-A and HAFS-B modeled the pressure to get down to 910mb. The only variable that can prevent Melissa from reaching MPI is literally an internal structure change like an EWRC. We'll have to wait and see when that occurs and how it needs to recover after, but definitely a catastrophic scenario that is going to unfold on Tuesday in Jamaica.

Sadly no matter what about your last sentence.

[USTropics]

The one thing I am seeing right now, and you have to get a really good high-res longwave IR product going, is a slight degradation in the western inner core. Temperatures have been going up in the last ~90 minutes here in this quadrant:

[eastcoastFL]

Melissa is looking more and more impressive on radar every minute. Amazing

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The one thing I am seeing right now, and you have to get a really good high-res longwave IR product going, is a slight degradation in the western inner core. Temperatures have been going up in the last ~90 minutes here in this quadrant:

https://i.imgur.com/G1swuUp.gif

You can see quite a tongue of dry air intruding outside of the CDO. No idea if it's mixing in though. Might just be enough to keep it from going sub-920mb or something crazy tonight.

[HurricaneBelle]

Guessing she's moving just enough to avoid upwelling

[hurricaneCW]

Guessing she's moving just enough to avoid upwelling

Yes but the depth of warm water in the region extends very far down. Even a near stall wouldn't cause a lot of upwelling

[ATDoel]

Guessing she's moving just enough to avoid upwelling

The warm water here extends to tremendous depths, it would need to sit in the same spot for a long time to cause any upwelling.

[Keldeo1997]

932.4 Extap

Edit: with 30kt winds so might be in the 920s

[MarioProtVI]

Only 129 kt FL.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Only 129 kt FL.

Strongest winds are likely in the NE quad.

[NDG]

She's going for Cat 5 tonight!

[Beef Stew]

Melissa has an absurdly perfect satellite presentation for a sub category 5 storm (at least as of now).

[CrazyC83]

If we had SFMR on that plane, we might have had a better idea. There's nothing to suggest an intensity higher than 125 kt, although the pressure looks to be about 931 mb as it likely missed the eye.

[Travorum]

There's a bit of a secondary wind maximum showing up, its more pronounced on the E side:

[ljmac75]

Eye dropsonde is 937 with 41 kt winds (~933) which would be a continuation of the 2 mb/hr deepening rate we've seen.

[Travorum]

A big burst of convection is coming up in the W eyewall: