NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Teban54]

With such a huge discrepancy in FL and SFMR winds, as well as continued skepticism of SFMR at higher ends... Will the 159 kt SFMR be thrown out completely?

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports 923-924mb, pretty nice drop since last mission

[PavelGaborik10]

Data looks to support cat 5 to my eye, granted I'm not professional.

[Fancy1002]

In my opinion, the latest recon justifies 160mph, but it’s even more shocking to me that they didn’t go with 155.

[mrbagyo]

923-924
145 knots on 06z update?

[Travorum]

With such a huge discrepancy in FL and SFMR winds, as well as continued skepticism of SFMR at higher ends... Will the 159 kt SFMR be thrown out completely?

I think maybe not completely disregarded but maybe weighted less; between the CI# 8.1 ADT, the T7.5 subjective fix that will probably come through at 06z, the FL winds, and the SFMR measurement, there's probably enough support for at least 140kts.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Please see the SFMR thread at the end for context. However, the storm is strengthening.

The 2am EDT advisory was posted at 1:57:33am EDT.

At 1:54am EDT an HDOB through the center was posted from recon ending at 1:53:30am EDT.

That ob in the southeast quadrant from where the plane was incoming from to the center had winds of (OB19, ending at 1:53am EDT):

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 155mph
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 161mph
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 170mph

In the northwest quadrant in the ten minutes after that (OB20, ending at 2:03am EDT):

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 161mph
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 166mph
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 183mph

See this thread on Bluesky about SFMR being unreliable from earlier NOAA mission where SFMR was turned off:
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ce6exp ... 4fslz5zk2b

Alan Gerard from earlier mission: "Seems as if recon is finding #Melissa potentially intensifying again. Eye dropsonde measured 949 mb with 26 kt of wind at sfc, implying 946-7 mb central pressure. 115 kt SFMR winds in NW quad and 122 kt FL winds in SE quad."

‪James Franklin‬: "Alan, unless something has changed recently, the SFMR data aren’t considered properly calibrated. NOAA turned off the transmission of the SFMR but that’s harder to do on the AF C-130s."

‪Alan Gerard‬: "Thanks for the update on that. I didn’t know if that was the situation still or not. I will avoid mentioning going forward"

James Franklin‬: "I haven’t heard anything and I understand the fixes are non-trivial, so yeah, use with caution, especially at the high end."

[Jr0d]

Now 144kt flight level winds and 159kt sfmr estimated winds,unrealiable but still useful information.

If eyewall will stays intact another hour or two, I think we may find higher winds in the southwest/northeast eye pass.

Looks like I wont be sleeping anytime soon.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 135 kt for the intensity. Very little weight on the SFMR, but the FL winds and pressure drop support a higher intensity.

[MarioProtVI]

With such a huge discrepancy in FL and SFMR winds, as well as continued skepticism of SFMR at higher ends... Will the 159 kt SFMR be thrown out completely?

I think maybe not completely disregarded but maybe weighted less; between the CI# 8.1 ADT, the T7.5 subjective fix that will probably come through at 06z, the FL winds, and the SFMR measurement, there's probably enough support for at least 140kts.

NHC has thrown out SFMRs beginning last year in high end hurricanes because of its faulty issues so they’re only going by the FL->surface reduction method. It doesn’t matter if satellite estimates think it’s a 5, recon weighs much more over that, and recon supports at most 135 kt. Basically this is just Eta 2.0.

[ElectricStorm]

I also agree with 135kts being a good estimate, and with no double wind max this is well on its way to 140kts+ very soon unless something drastically changes.

[mrbagyo]

With such a huge discrepancy in FL and SFMR winds, as well as continued skepticism of SFMR at higher ends... Will the 159 kt SFMR be thrown out completely?

I think maybe not completely disregarded but maybe weighted less; between the CI# 8.1 ADT, the T7.5 subjective fix that will probably come through at 06z, the FL winds, and the SFMR measurement, there's probably enough support for at least 140kts.

NHC has thrown out SFMRs beginning last year in high end hurricanes because of its faulty issues so they’re only going by the FL->surface reduction method. It doesn’t matter if satellite estimates think it’s a 5, recon weighs much more over that, and recon supports at most 135 kt. Basically this is just Eta 2.0.

They badly need to recalibrate the algorithm for the ADT.

[CrazyC83]

I also agree with 135kts being a good estimate, and with no double wind max this is well on its way to 140kts+ very soon unless something drastically changes.

Pressure is likely around 922 mb from what I could see.

[Fancy1002]

I'd go with 135 kt for the intensity. Very little weight on the SFMR, but the FL winds and pressure drop support a higher intensity.

So would it be correct to assume that it will be category five by morning, as long as there aren’t any additional surprises like an Eyewall replacement cycle.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 135 kt for the intensity. Very little weight on the SFMR, but the FL winds and pressure drop support a higher intensity.

So would it be correct to assume that it will be category five by morning, as long as there aren’t any additional surprises like an Eyewall replacement cycle.

Most likely. The pressure seems to be falling again at a good rate.

[WaveBreaking]

Eye’s been having some noticeable trochoidal oscillation recently

[cheezyWXguy]

I also agree with 135kts being a good estimate, and with no double wind max this is well on its way to 140kts+ very soon unless something drastically changes.

Since the northern quadrant hasn’t been sampled yet, there’s a chance it already does have 140kt winds.

[mrbagyo]

-90 cloudtops are exploding on the eastern sector of the CDO.
could this be a precursor to EWRC?

[CrazyC83]

-90 cloudtops are exploding on the eastern sector of the CDO.
could this be a precursor to EWRC?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3Qu3.gif

Doubtful. It appeared to go through a pseudo-EWRC today and I don't think it has anything concentric?

[CrazyC83]

In general, the SFMR should have little weight around 130 kt and up, and thrown out completely around 150 kt and up. I'd want to see a flight-level wind of at least 150 kt before going cat 5, or a dropsonde suggesting such.