NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Beef Stew]

Not quite sure where 907 is coming from in the VDM, but we’ll see what the NHC goes with in a little over an hour.

[GCANE]

Longitude is just about at the west end of Jamaica with it wobbling to the SW.
I don't know.

[kevin]

210 kt instantaneous wind at 907 mb in the NE eyewall. Not sure if I've ever seen a 200+ kt reading on a dropsonde, even at altitude.

[Zonacane]

EDIT; haven’t had enough caffeine yet, don’t mind me.

[Beef Stew]

210 kt instantaneous wind at 907 mb in the NE eyewall. Not sure if I've ever seen a 200+ kt reading on a dropsonde, even at altitude.

https://i.imgur.com/efYzoRe.png

Insane reading- I can’t remember seeing anything that high either off the top of my head. Dorian or Milton maybe? I know the NHC is usually quite hesitant about using dropsondes to upgrade wind speed, but I’d have to think that these readings (even with the reduction from instantaneous winds) plus the consistent 155+ FL winds in most quadrants of Melissa are enough to justify at least 145 kts at this point. Depending on the weight given to dropsondes and SFMR, an argument could be made for 150, but I’d be shocked if they went that high.

[zzzh]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432358847577587866/MELISSA_AF308_2013A_vdm_202510271251.png?ex=6900c3a1&is=68ff7221&hm=7e41ce078a486cc00c47687a437e6e4ae879b3a0c12601c124f161543a58d662&

Vdm has 907mb

extrap pressure

The AF plane never measured any sub-910 extrap pressure, though. Even the NOAA didn't go that low (and I wouldn't expect an AF VDM to use NOAA data).

The original VDM message only said 916 mb, and AF's dropsonade data hasn't been available yet. So I have no idea where the 907 could have plausibly come from.

here is the full VDM:

URNT12 KNHC 271316
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132025
A. 27/12:51:50Z
B. 16.30 deg N 078.09 deg W
C. 700 mb 2353 m
D. EXTRAP 907 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C10
H. 154 kt
I. 249 deg 4 nm 12:48:00Z
J. 320 deg 153 kt
K. 249 deg 4 nm 12:48:00Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. NA
O. NA
P. 7 C / 3042 m
Q. 25 C / 3035 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0 nm
U. AF308 2013A MELISSA OB 10
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
MAX FL WIND 158 KT 008 / 6 NM 11:35:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[Extratropical94]

210 kt instantaneous wind at 907 mb in the NE eyewall. Not sure if I've ever seen a 200+ kt reading on a dropsonde, even at altitude.

https://i.imgur.com/efYzoRe.png

I believe Beryl last year had a drop with a quadruple pennant, can't remember though if it was >200kts or "just" 198/199. Definitely not 210.

Edit:

According to the tropicalatlantic.com archives, it was 198. https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

Highest in Milton was 189. https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

[MarioProtVI]

This season is really odd with now THREE C5s, and everything else not named Erin, Humberto, Gabrielle and Imelda ended up underwhelming, yet were likely to end with above-average ACE. Very weird.

Also that dropsonde is insane and I think is the highest gust (210 kt) measured in a TC in a dropsonde besting out Megi by 1 kt..

[Category5Kaiju]

This season is really odd with now THREE C5s, and everything else not named Erin, Humberto, Gabrielle and Imelda ended up underwhelming, yet were likely to end with above-average ACE. Very weird.

Also that dropsonde is insane and I think is the highest gust (210 kt) measured in a TC in a dropsonde besting out Megi by 1 kt..

Very 1999 or 2007-like in that sense. The overall conditions/storm strength behavior this year were very binary. Storms that didn't have optimal conditions to strengthen greatly struggled, and storms that did massively overperformed.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Isabel in 2003 had one at like 200kts if I'm remembering correctly. Was a record at the time.

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[tulum07]

If it does not start the turn NW/N this AM, it is not making landfall in Jamaica.

[Chris90]

A dropsonde in Katrina measured a 234kt gust 53mb above the surface, so Melissa doesn't have the record yet, but she's upper echelon for sure.

[Teban54]

[Hayabusa]

Wow! Look that CI!

2025OCT27 024021 7.4 908.3 152.0 7.4 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.14 -78.47 EYE 16 IR 73.8 16.25 77.45 ARCHER GOES19 19.2
2025OCT27 031021 7.5 905.1 155.0 7.5 8.1 8.2 3.7T/24hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.30 -79.68 EYE 15 IR 73.8 16.25 77.45 ARCHER GOES19 19.2
2025OCT27 034021 7.7 898.7 161.0 7.7 8.3 8.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.12 -79.97 EYE 15 IR 73.8 16.28 77.51 ARCHER GOES19 19.3
2025OCT27 041021 7.8 895.5 164.0 7.8 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.96 -78.14 EYE 15 IR 73.8 16.27 77.57 ARCHER GOES19 19.2
2025OCT27 051021 8.0 888.9 170.0 8.0 8.2 8.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.84 -78.98 EYE 15 IR 73.8 16.28 77.60 ARCHER GOES19 19.3
2025OCT27 053021 8.1 885.5 173.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.78 -78.86 EYE 15 IR 73.8 16.28 77.60 ARCHER GOES19 19.3
2025OCT27 054021 8.1 885.5 173.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.92 -78.79 EYE 15 IR 73.8 16.30 77.66 ARCHER GOES19 19.3
2025OCT27 061021 8.1 885.5 173.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.80 -78.55 EYE 15 IR 73.8 16.31 77.69 ARCHER GOES19 19.3
2025OCT27 064021 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.1 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.72 -78.25 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.28 77.72 ARCHER GOES19 19.3
2025OCT27 071021 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.16 -78.22 EYE 13 IR 73.8 16.29 77.72 ARCHER GOES19 19.3
2025OCT27 074021 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.87 -78.24 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.33 77.75 ARCHER GOES19 19.3
2025OCT27 081021 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.34 -78.39 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.31 77.75 ARCHER GOES19 19.3
2025OCT27 084021 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.04 -78.20 EYE 15 IR 73.8 16.35 77.78 ARCHER GOES19 19.4
2025OCT27 091021 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.31 -78.54 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.35 77.80 ARCHER GOES19 19.4
2025OCT27 094021 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 19.26 -78.00 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.39 77.84 ARCHER GOES19 19.4
2025OCT27 101021 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 21.02 -78.15 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.36 77.89 ARCHER GOES19 19.4
2025OCT27 111022 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.63 -78.16 EYE 15 IR 73.8 16.36 77.95 ARCHER GOES19 19.4
2025OCT27 113022 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 21.31 -78.21 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.36 77.95 ARCHER GOES19 19.4
2025OCT27 114022 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 21.69 -78.14 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.35 77.99 ARCHER GOES19 19.4
2025OCT27 121020 8.1 886.5 173.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 21.05 -77.95 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.34 78.00 ARCHER GOES19 19.4
2025OCT27 124020 8.1 886.5 173.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 21.81 -77.72 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.35 78.05 ARCHER GOES19 19.4
2025OCT27 131020 8.0 889.8 170.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 21.90 -77.31 EYE 14 IR 73.8 16.31 78.09 ARCHER GOES19 19.4

[Stormgodess]

Longitude is just about at the west end of Jamaica with it wobbling to the SW.
I don't know.

Could Melissa's ugly blob eastern twin be affecting her track? It's as big as she is.

I know nothing, so I panicked for a second when I saw this loop, it looked like the ugly twin was forming an eye


 https://x.com/BradyBGWX/status/1982807170568618209

[BobHarlem]

Looks like the west motion has stopped, may be doing a small cyclonic loop then start the north drift.

[chaser1]

This season is really odd with now THREE C5s, and everything else not named Erin, Humberto, Gabrielle and Imelda ended up underwhelming, yet were likely to end with above-average ACE. Very weird.

Also that dropsonde is insane and I think is the highest gust (210 kt) measured in a TC in a dropsonde besting out Megi by 1 kt..

Very 1999 or 2007-like in that sense. The overall conditions/storm strength behavior this year were very binary. Storms that didn't have optimal conditions to strengthen greatly struggled, and storms that did massively overperformed.

We need to create a new broad time span view metric; Sort of a "Volatility Gradient". As a graph however, I do not think that a range of results would at all correlate with any graph that simply tracks seasonal Instability verses Stability (conditions). I'm sure that someone must have conducted a similar thesis paper with that in mind

[Jr0d]

I should be sleeping, been up all night but now I have to wait for the NHC discussion and hopefully one more AF recon eye pass.

I saved the dropsonde plot image from Tropical Tidbits that shows the 210kt winds. Can't sleep after seeing that.

[Sanibel]

Looks like the west motion has stopped, may be doing a small cyclonic loop then start the north drift.

Agreed...Starting to look like a killer hurricane...

The blob is convergence from the tropical flow easterlies piling up against a stalled Low...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

9am EDT Monday: A sonde just measured what might be one of the highest winds ever recorded by sonde, if accurate

Please keep the following in mind. This is a momentary wind recorded as the sonde falls. It's a fraction of a second I believe. Maybe around 0.25 or 0.5 seconds, I'm not sure. Not 1 minute sustained or even a gust which I think is 3 seconds.

In the following particular sonde these pressure levels are this high in geopotential feet:

925mb level is 144 ft
850mb level is 2,572 ft

At the 907mb level, a momentary wind of 242 mph was recorded.

At the surface, 162mph.

Here's the sonde:
https://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.c ... duct=sonde

Some of the of the other readings on the way down were 222mph, 220mph, 220mph, 213mph.

Some historical comparisons from browsing my recon archive. (I didn't search with a program, just looking at some of the top Atlantic storms in history) These are significant levels reported in the dropsonde, not from raw dropsonde data. If recon wasn't in a storm at the time of peak winds, it obviously would not have caught the highest. And also obviously, a sonde is unlikely to just happen to just catch the highest winds as it gets violently thrown around. And this and some of these others could be errors. This is raw unverified data that is subject to error. Also, my archive might have missed some.

I'm not saying this is a complete list, just some of the ones I looked up.

Katrina in 2005 had one for a single reading of 269mph:
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... 3-919-234-

Some of the of the other readings on the way down were 213mph, 212mph, 208mph, 207mph.

Rita in 2005 had one at 236mph.

Irma in 2017 had 229mph.

Dorian in 2019 had one at 224mph and another on another mission of 223mph.

Milton in 2024 had 218mph.

Felix in 2007 had 214mph.

Dean in 2007 had 205mph.

Maria in 2017 had 199mph.



Also added Isabel in 2003 to that list: It had 227mph

I was curious and asked ChatGPT and it said 203 knots. Well, maybe in 2003 when the article it found was from:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/mwr_pdf/2003.pdf

"The highest winds measured by reconnaissance aircraft were 158 kt at 700-mb flight level and 157 kt at 2560 m between 1700 and 1730 UTC 13 September. A 156-kt 700-mb wind was observed at 1719 UTC 12 September. Stronger winds were observed from GPS dropsondes in the eyewall, with a maximum of 203 kt reported at 806 mb (1372 m) at 1753 UTC 13 September. This is the strongest wind ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane."

That's about 234mph. My archive has the one for 227mph. There's been some since 2003.

And again, this is a value somewhere in a sonde on the way down. None of these are at the surface.