2025 NATL hurricane season is here

[Category5Kaiju]

There hasn't been a single Category 1 storm this season. Iirc, the last time something like this happened was 1999, which was also a year with an unusually high major hurricane to tropical storm ratio.

[FireRat]

Who said this season was boring? Who thought it would have 2 cat 5's and a cat 4 and maybe another cat 4-5? Only thinking Mellissa could be a disaster of epic proportions for some countries / Islands including the Bahamas is very sad.

Examples from other wx boards that I’ve been a member of for a long time (AmericanWx/SouthernWx) of 5 different bored people:

1. Posted just yesterday at American:

One of the biggest dud seasons of this decade.


2. Posted just 4 days ago at American from someone who used to post here:

One of the most uninteresting and boring seasons I can remember. It’s hilarious we have had two 5s tho in the middle of literally nothing else


3. Posted just 5 days ago:
Boring


4. Posted 10 days ago from a Floridian at a different board:

Since the season is over I’d give this past year a F+. Zero storms to track, Gulf was dead.

He’s never been shy about wanting hurricanes to hit FL and the stronger the better.


5. Oct 5th from a pro met at American:

This may be the most boring tropical season in decades
——————

These are just a few examples. At least they’re being honest. More than just CONUS hits, they want to be hit where they live.

I'll add this much. When I was around 10-12 yr's old, I became fascinated in severe weather as a result of the daily afternoon thunderstorms that developed out west in the Everglades west of Miami. My interest and knowledge in severe weather expanded over time. By the time I became 12 or 13 years old, I was dying for a hurricane to hit Miami! I wanted nothing more then to see & feel the impact of a hurricane. From my middle to my late teens, my fascination only grew and took whatever Environmental Sciences classes available at Miami-Dade College. I'll never forget my favorite teacher Mr. Tony Toney (yes, pronounced as "Tony Tony" - no lie LOL). I became a Co-operative weather observer for the Mia NWS (located at the NHC in Coral Gables). One day while there, I was introduced to two guys who I was told "chased" hurricanes. I nearly lost my mind and struck up a friendship with both of them. I eventually chased my 1st hurricane (Danny - in Louisiana). Was an awesome experience! Other hurricane chases followed. One day, a hurricane followed me. That was Andrew. That was the first time that I ever felt at risk and even thought that I might die. I had family and friends badly impacted by the storm and spent a good deal of time helping, cleaning, finding & shuttling ice & water back-and-forth to help. I witnessed the pain, damage and suffering of others yet I was not old enough to be a home-owner, understand Homeowner insurance issues, or was i faced with the financial, food, or housing issues while living further north up in Broward Co. I continued to chase hurricanes but my perspective changed quite a bit over that time. Eventually I became a homeowner and was still excited to have Katrina unexpectedly develop and move west over Miami-Dade & Broward. I was outside my home carefully watching and videoing the event. Had some minor roof damage and messed up everyone's yards. Got through that fine - fun times lol. Then came Wilma and that was worse. More expensive prep, more damage, longer without electric or A/C, and greater impact to family. Thereafter, I began to dread the prospects of a hurricane threatening S. Florida. I continued to remain fascinated by all types of severe weather, severe climates, and hurricanes. My fascination never diminished but my maturity, broader understanding of a hurricane's impact to others, and perhaps most importantly - the social awareness of suffering that others have had (and continue to) as a result of any type of severe weather.

No one should be faulted or shamed for wanting to visualize or experience the world we live in. Furthermore, to be human is to err. Not everybody communicates equally well and poorly expressed thoughts can easily be taken out of the intended context. It only becomes in very bad taste, when one's desire is expressed in a manner that fully disregards the hurt & pain of others for one's own benefit That form of expression & disregard is not professional and certainly not nice.

Wow Chaser, that is some awesome perspective! Really illustrates what many of us, including myself, have experienced growing up fascinated by the weather!

I had a similar experience in Florida but a little after. Came to the US with my parents to Miami in June 1994 as a kid, missed Andrew by less than 2 years but got to still see remnant damage in South Dade and heard all the stories of Andrew. I even got the Andrew Cassete tape with Brian Norcross in it haha. Those Miani thunderstorms also captivated my interest in extreme weather.

I too, wanted to experience a hurricane and got my first taste of one with Georges, outer bands of course. Very distinct to the typical summer storms. Floyd looked like it could be it the following year, but also missed spectacularly. 2004 teased us in Broward, ans finally got to experience Katrina and then Wilma in 2005... which confirmed I was nuts about these storms, but also got to see the dark side of these storms, with people losing their property. We had roof damage and lost a few trees.

Storms are just gonna storm, we will always be excited to see and experience them, but like you said, very important to never disregard the pain and disaster that others will experience just because we want to be in a hurricane. 100% agreed.

[chaser1]

Examples from other wx boards that I’ve been a member of for a long time (AmericanWx/SouthernWx) of 5 different bored people:

1. Posted just yesterday at American:

One of the biggest dud seasons of this decade.


2. Posted just 4 days ago at American from someone who used to post here:

One of the most uninteresting and boring seasons I can remember. It’s hilarious we have had two 5s tho in the middle of literally nothing else


3. Posted just 5 days ago:
Boring


4. Posted 10 days ago from a Floridian at a different board:

Since the season is over I’d give this past year a F+. Zero storms to track, Gulf was dead.

He’s never been shy about wanting hurricanes to hit FL and the stronger the better.


5. Oct 5th from a pro met at American:

This may be the most boring tropical season in decades
——————

These are just a few examples. At least they’re being honest. More than just CONUS hits, they want to be hit where they live.

I'll add this much. When I was around 10-12 yr's old, I became fascinated in severe weather as a result of the daily afternoon thunderstorms that developed out west in the Everglades west of Miami. My interest and knowledge in severe weather expanded over time. By the time I became 12 or 13 years old, I was dying for a hurricane to hit Miami! I wanted nothing more then to see & feel the impact of a hurricane. From my middle to my late teens, my fascination only grew and took whatever Environmental Sciences classes available at Miami-Dade College. I'll never forget my favorite teacher Mr. Tony Toney (yes, pronounced as "Tony Tony" - no lie LOL). I became a Co-operative weather observer for the Mia NWS (located at the NHC in Coral Gables). One day while there, I was introduced to two guys who I was told "chased" hurricanes. I nearly lost my mind and struck up a friendship with both of them. I eventually chased my 1st hurricane (Danny - in Louisiana). Was an awesome experience! Other hurricane chases followed. One day, a hurricane followed me. That was Andrew. That was the first time that I ever felt at risk and even thought that I might die. I had family and friends badly impacted by the storm and spent a good deal of time helping, cleaning, finding & shuttling ice & water back-and-forth to help. I witnessed the pain, damage and suffering of others yet I was not old enough to be a home-owner, understand Homeowner insurance issues, or was i faced with the financial, food, or housing issues while living further north up in Broward Co. I continued to chase hurricanes but my perspective changed quite a bit over that time. Eventually I became a homeowner and was still excited to have Katrina unexpectedly develop and move west over Miami-Dade & Broward. I was outside my home carefully watching and videoing the event. Had some minor roof damage and messed up everyone's yards. Got through that fine - fun times lol. Then came Wilma and that was worse. More expensive prep, more damage, longer without electric or A/C, and greater impact to family. Thereafter, I began to dread the prospects of a hurricane threatening S. Florida. I continued to remain fascinated by all types of severe weather, severe climates, and hurricanes. My fascination never diminished but my maturity, broader understanding of a hurricane's impact to others, and perhaps most importantly - the social awareness of suffering that others have had (and continue to) as a result of any type of severe weather.

No one should be faulted or shamed for wanting to visualize or experience the world we live in. Furthermore, to be human is to err. Not everybody communicates equally well and poorly expressed thoughts can easily be taken out of the intended context. It only becomes in very bad taste, when one's desire is expressed in a manner that fully disregards the hurt & pain of others for one's own benefit That form of expression & disregard is not professional and certainly not nice.

Wow Chaser, that is some awesome perspective! Really illustrates what many of us, including myself, have experienced growing up fascinated by the weather!

I had a similar experience in Florida but a little after. Came to the US with my parents to Miami in June 1994 as a kid, missed Andrew by less than 2 years but got to still see remnant damage in South Dade and heard all the stories of Andrew. I even got the Andrew Cassete tape with Brian Norcross in it haha. Those Miani thunderstorms also captivated my interest in extreme weather.

I too, wanted to experience a hurricane and got my first taste of one with Georges, outer bands of course. Very distinct to the typical summer storms. Floyd looked like it could be it the following year, but also missed spectacularly. 2004 teased us in Broward, ans finally got to experience Katrina and then Wilma in 2005... which confirmed I was nuts about these storms, but also got to see the dark side of these storms, with people losing their property. We had roof damage and lost a few trees.

Storms are just gonna storm, we will always be excited to see and experience them, but like you said, very important to never disregard the pain and disaster that others will experience just because we want to be in a hurricane. 100% agreed.

Wow, do you still have the infamous Andrew - Brian Norcross Tape The old original clunky VHS tape? NOW look what you've started . I'm gonna have to dig to find mine but I KNOW I must still have mine too. Only problem is, I'm sure that I no longer own any VHS player to watch it. Yep, it sounds like you definitely caught the same "weather-bug" that I did!

[galaxy401]

This is a small sample range but the past few years seem to have the activity in hurricane season more backloaded. August and early September have been getting increasingly inactive while later September and October are becoming more active.

[Travorum]

2025 is now the second Atlantic season ever with more than 2 Category 5 Hurricanes, with a whopping 60% of hurricanes being Category 5s. Absolutely wild stuff.

[kevin]

A bit of an easy statistic with the cat 5 drought after 2007, but still: there have been more category 5 hurricanes in the last 3 months than in the 10-year period Sep/01/2007 - Sep/01/2017.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

A bit of an easy statistic with the cat 5 drought after 2007, but still: there have been more category 5 hurricanes in the last 3 months than in the 10-year period Sep/01/2007 - Sep/01/2017.

For some reason this reminds me of a Monster Hunter YouTube video titled "Everybody So Big-Big!"

[Teban54]

2025 is now the second Atlantic season ever with more than 2 Category 5 Hurricanes, with a whopping 60% of hurricanes being Category 5s. Absolutely wild stuff.

2024-25 is now the second time that two consecutive years featured at least two Cat 5 each, the other being 1932-33. It's also the second two-year period with five Cat 5s (the highest on record), the other being 2004-05.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looking back in hindsight, the “bust” talks in early September aged like milk inside a wide open container, left outside in a Florida swamp during the peak of summer.

[AnnularCane]

Looking back in hindsight, the “bust” talks in early September aged like milk inside a wide open container, left outside in a Florida swamp during the peak of summer.

Funny, that's exactly what happened last year. I sense a trend.

[Teban54]

Looking back in hindsight, the “bust” talks in early September aged like milk inside a wide open container, left outside in a Florida swamp during the peak of summer.

There was a time when it actually seemed plausible to many that Erin would be the only MH of the season. Those were some good times.

[chaser1]

2025 is now the second Atlantic season ever with more than 2 Category 5 Hurricanes, with a whopping 60% of hurricanes being Category 5s. Absolutely wild stuff.

2024-25 is now the second time that two consecutive years featured at least two Cat 5 each, the other being 1932-33. It's also the second two-year period with five Cat 5s (the highest on record), the other being 2004-05.

Which adds that much greater curiosity and interest to see how next Hurricane Season plays out. Will there be any Cat 5's next year? That should outright NOT occur, and yet I am practically expecting it to happen. Crazy stuff, man.

[Category5Kaiju]

2025 is now the second Atlantic season ever with more than 2 Category 5 Hurricanes, with a whopping 60% of hurricanes being Category 5s. Absolutely wild stuff.

2024-25 is now the second time that two consecutive years featured at least two Cat 5 each, the other being 1932-33. It's also the second two-year period with five Cat 5s (the highest on record), the other being 2004-05.

Which adds that much greater curiosity and interest to see how next Hurricane Season plays out. Will there be any Cat 5's next year? That should outright NOT occur, and yet I am practically expecting it to happen. Crazy stuff, man.

Given how the past 10+ years have behaved, unless we see some truly anomalous pattern shift, then I think there’s a very real possibility that 2026 will feature at least a high-end Category 4 system, if not yet another 5 (let alone multiple 5s). If 2026 operationally records a 5, then this would break the record for the most consecutive seasons that recorded Category 5 hurricanes (2016-2019).

The bottom line is, the Atlantic has generally seen anomalously warm temperatures in recent times. Given this fundamental trait that is critical for powerful storms, storms that otherwise would have capped at a lower intensity are becoming stronger. I guarantee you that if storms like Ike 2008 or Georges 1998 occurred during recent times, they probably would’ve been outright Category 5 systems. If a year that started off with a -AMO look like 2018 or a strong El Niño year like 2023 still saw Category 5 systems, then that really is telling.

[Teban54]

The bottom line is, the Atlantic has generally seen anomalously warm temperatures in recent times. Given this fundamental trait that is critical for powerful storms, storms that otherwise would have capped at a lower intensity are becoming stronger. I guarantee you that if storms like Ike 2008 or Georges 1998 occurred during recent times, they probably would’ve been outright Category 5 systems. If a year that started off with a -AMO look like 2018 or a strong El Niño year like 2023 still saw Category 5 systems, then that really is telling.

There was also an inverse argument made recently that, if Erin and Humberto occurred in earlier decades, they would have most likely been standard CV Cat 4s rather than Cat 5s.

[al78]

The bottom line is, the Atlantic has generally seen anomalously warm temperatures in recent times. Given this fundamental trait that is critical for powerful storms, storms that otherwise would have capped at a lower intensity are becoming stronger. I guarantee you that if storms like Ike 2008 or Georges 1998 occurred during recent times, they probably would’ve been outright Category 5 systems. If a year that started off with a -AMO look like 2018 or a strong El Niño year like 2023 still saw Category 5 systems, then that really is telling.

There was also an inverse argument made recently that, if Erin and Humberto occurred in earlier decades, they would have most likely been standard CV Cat 4s rather than Cat 5s.

This is the sort of debate that can rage on forever and I'm not sure how helpful it is in the grand scheme of things. I agree that improvements in monitoring tropical cyclones may have had some contribution to trends in intense hurricane numbers, but fundamental physics suggests that if you increase the ocean temperature, you increase the maximum potential intensity, and therefore load the odds in favour of super-intense storms. If we take the atmospheric conditions over a long period of time as being quasi-random, there are always going to be periods where the atmosphere becomes favourable enough for a developing tropical cyclone to take full advantage of anomalously warm SSTs.

[al78]

Looking back in hindsight, the “bust” talks in early September aged like milk inside a wide open container, left outside in a Florida swamp during the peak of summer.

Moral of the story: Wait until an event/season is over before you analyse the forecasts.

[FireRat]

I'll add this much. When I was around 10-12 yr's old, I became fascinated in severe weather as a result of the daily afternoon thunderstorms that developed out west in the Everglades west of Miami. My interest and knowledge in severe weather expanded over time. By the time I became 12 or 13 years old, I was dying for a hurricane to hit Miami! I wanted nothing more then to see & feel the impact of a hurricane. From my middle to my late teens, my fascination only grew and took whatever Environmental Sciences classes available at Miami-Dade College. I'll never forget my favorite teacher Mr. Tony Toney (yes, pronounced as "Tony Tony" - no lie LOL). I became a Co-operative weather observer for the Mia NWS (located at the NHC in Coral Gables). One day while there, I was introduced to two guys who I was told "chased" hurricanes. I nearly lost my mind and struck up a friendship with both of them. I eventually chased my 1st hurricane (Danny - in Louisiana). Was an awesome experience! Other hurricane chases followed. One day, a hurricane followed me. That was Andrew. That was the first time that I ever felt at risk and even thought that I might die. I had family and friends badly impacted by the storm and spent a good deal of time helping, cleaning, finding & shuttling ice & water back-and-forth to help. I witnessed the pain, damage and suffering of others yet I was not old enough to be a home-owner, understand Homeowner insurance issues, or was i faced with the financial, food, or housing issues while living further north up in Broward Co. I continued to chase hurricanes but my perspective changed quite a bit over that time. Eventually I became a homeowner and was still excited to have Katrina unexpectedly develop and move west over Miami-Dade & Broward. I was outside my home carefully watching and videoing the event. Had some minor roof damage and messed up everyone's yards. Got through that fine - fun times lol. Then came Wilma and that was worse. More expensive prep, more damage, longer without electric or A/C, and greater impact to family. Thereafter, I began to dread the prospects of a hurricane threatening S. Florida. I continued to remain fascinated by all types of severe weather, severe climates, and hurricanes. My fascination never diminished but my maturity, broader understanding of a hurricane's impact to others, and perhaps most importantly - the social awareness of suffering that others have had (and continue to) as a result of any type of severe weather.

No one should be faulted or shamed for wanting to visualize or experience the world we live in. Furthermore, to be human is to err. Not everybody communicates equally well and poorly expressed thoughts can easily be taken out of the intended context. It only becomes in very bad taste, when one's desire is expressed in a manner that fully disregards the hurt & pain of others for one's own benefit That form of expression & disregard is not professional and certainly not nice.

Wow Chaser, that is some awesome perspective! Really illustrates what many of us, including myself, have experienced growing up fascinated by the weather!

I had a similar experience in Florida but a little after. Came to the US with my parents to Miami in June 1994 as a kid, missed Andrew by less than 2 years but got to still see remnant damage in South Dade and heard all the stories of Andrew. I even got the Andrew Cassete tape with Brian Norcross in it haha. Those Miani thunderstorms also captivated my interest in extreme weather.

I too, wanted to experience a hurricane and got my first taste of one with Georges, outer bands of course. Very distinct to the typical summer storms. Floyd looked like it could be it the following year, but also missed spectacularly. 2004 teased us in Broward, ans finally got to experience Katrina and then Wilma in 2005... which confirmed I was nuts about these storms, but also got to see the dark side of these storms, with people losing their property. We had roof damage and lost a few trees.

Storms are just gonna storm, we will always be excited to see and experience them, but like you said, very important to never disregard the pain and disaster that others will experience just because we want to be in a hurricane. 100% agreed.

Wow, do you still have the infamous Andrew - Brian Norcross Tape The old original clunky VHS tape? NOW look what you've started . I'm gonna have to dig to find mine but I KNOW I must still have mine too. Only problem is, I'm sure that I no longer own any VHS player to watch it. Yep, it sounds like you definitely caught the same "weather-bug" that I did!

I sure did catch the weather bug haha!! This is my prized possesion



I also have the same issue, no VHS player anymore!
Hope you find yours too, something worthy of keeping!

[cycloneye]

I only say "What a season".

[LarryWx]

I know many here must be exhausted, but is Melissa going to end up being the last NS of the season? Probably not. Why? I’ll look at non-El Nino seasons only:

Since the start of the current active era, there have been 76% (16 of 21) of non-Nino seasons with at least one NS with TCG in the Nov-Dec period. The only ones without any TCG in Nov-Dec were 1995, 2000, 2010 (Thomas’ TCG was Oct 29), 2012, and 2021 (Wanda started Oct 30th).

So, I’m giving it ~75% chance for at least one more NS in 2025.

[FireRat]

I know many here must be exhausted, but is Melissa going to end up being the last NS of the season? Probably not. Why? I’ll look at non-El Nino seasons only:

Since the start of the current active era, there have been 76% (16 of 21) of non-Nino seasons with at least one NS with TCG in the Nov-Dec period. The only ones without any TCG in Nov-Dec were 1995, 2000, 2010 (Thomas’ TCG was Oct 29), 2012, and 2021 (Wanda started Oct 30th).

So, I’m giving it ~75% chance for at least one more NS in 2025.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we got a few more storms, and even another significant Hurricane in November... even Late November, in this tricky 2025.