NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= Made Landfall at 185 mph / 892 mbs

[Fancy1002]

Melissa broke it’s dry eye record again, and then again shortly after.

[Teban54]

AF301 has left.

Next recon schedules, all in EDT:

• AF: Departure 5am, fix 7:30 am
• NOAA: Departure 4am, fix 8am

Now I better catch some sleep...

[Teban54]

[WaveBreaking]

Another one of my homemade GeoColor images

[SFLcane]

Nothing short of gut wrenching to see this unfold just seeing some of those hafs model solutions come to realization. My sincere prayers to those in the path of this generational storm. Some areas were this thing hits will be unrecognizable. Wind gusts in higher elevations could easily top 200 mph!

[HurricaneRyan]

I don't see this weakening enough to get below Category 5 when it hits Jamaica.

Pray for Jamaica.

[grapealcoholic]

back to deepening.. cloud tops gradient/contours getting smoother

895 next pass

she's going to bottom out -- close to mpi (sub 880)

[mrbagyo]

AWS are more numerous on the Eastern Part of Jamaica

[869MB]

While everyone is sleeping, or taking a nap, I just wanted to give a quick shout out to all the men and women who contributed with improving the weather computer modeling quality over the years. Hurricane Melissa is the latest example of how their hard work has increased forecaster’s confidence and provided the general public with sufficient lead time to prepare for such extreme storms such as this.

[kevin]

The last recon pass still showed no signs of double-wind maxima and the eye drop had 95%+ RH all the way to the surface. Melissa has been a category 5 hurricane for 23 hours so far and it might remain one until landfall in another 10 hours. This would make Melissa the longest-duration cat 5 since Irma. And the only reason it'll weaken is because, with likely catastrophic consequences, Jamaica is 'in its way'. I don't think I've ever seen such a long-duration cat 5 with no EWRC. Whether it's the shear being just high enough to prevent an EWRC or just Melissa's extremely stable core, she's a one-of-a-kind storm.

[kevin]

With landfall less than 12 hours away, it's also becoming more likely that Melissa will be added to this list. The most intense Atlantic hurricane landfalls.

892 mb - Labor Day - 1932
900 mb - Gilbert - 1988
900 mb - Camille - 1969
905 mb - Dean - 2007
910 mb - Cuba 1924 - 1924
910 mb - Dorian - 2019
914 mb - Janet - 1955
914 mb - Irma - 2017
918 mb - Cuba 1932 - 1932
919 mb - Michael - 2018

[Hammy]

eye looks like it's starting to destabilize some over the last few hours, could be a weakening trend

[Hurrilurker]

Picking up speed fast, weird after seeing it just crawl in the area for days. That's probably a good thing for Jamaica, don't want it sitting there long.

[grapealcoholic]

https://i.imgur.com/AwQL9Dt.gif

eye looks like it's starting to destabilize some over the last few hours, could be a weakening trend

alternatively, mesos which it's in the process of integrating

cdo looks impressive

[michelinj]

Can't see any evidence of the NOAA plane taking off yet, and it should have an hour ago. Hopefully it's on the way and just not reporting. At worst if it doesn't go at least we have the AF plane which should leave any minute.

[grapealcoholic]

nhc discussion mentions a second eyewall

better complete quick

[michelinj]

nhc discussion mentions a second eyewall

better complete quick

Yeah last few frames of satellite looks like something's going on near the eye. Saw it yesterday but it took mere hours to sort itself out before deepening again. Let's hope this EWRC if it is one gets disrupted by land influence

[aspen]

No sign of either recon plane taking off yet. What’s going on?

[grapealcoholic]

the thermodynamics & convective activity at play right now mean any structural changes complete very quickly

building a strong base for one final intensification round maybe, if it has time

[michelinj]

No sign of either recon plane taking off yet. What’s going on?

Yeah I'm not sure, they don't have loads of time before it'll start getting influenced by land too