NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

What’s g limit?

2.5Gs

Not what’s the G limit, what is G limit, the term?

He is referring to G force. Gravity force. 2.5x gravity is like the gravity on jupiter’s surface. Too damaging to fly in

[CrazyC83]

Based on that dropsonde, I would go with 175 kt for the intensity.

I could see 165; what's your line of thought for sustained 175?

(P.S.- I say that not intending to sound critical, but out of curiosity and as someone who really appreciates all your insight!)

That 172 dropsonde seems legit with the other data and satellite signature.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Incredible how powerful this will be for SW Jamaica.

Does anyone have any webcams or storm chasers who are trying to post live in the core of the storm as it approaches?

[cheezyWXguy]

Unbelievable drop in the S eyewall — 172 kt at the surface and increasing to 203 kt (!!!) at 916mb and 219 kt (!!!) at 906mb. Could 170 kt be justifiable with this?

Honestly I think it’s conceivable that an upgrade to at least 165kt could be in the cards for post season analysis. Although SFMRs are unreliable, I imagine that the ample amount of FL and dropsonde sampling could provide sufficient data between the surface and aloft to make sense of all those 170kt+ readings. I think Derek Ortt was right when he talked about conversion factors being much closer to 1 than normal for this storm.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983181787473031335

[NotoSans]

Based on that dropsonde, I would go with 175 kt for the intensity.

I could see 165; what's your line of thought for sustained 175?

(P.S.- I say that not intending to sound critical, but out of curiosity and as someone who really appreciates all your insight!)

That 172 dropsonde seems legit with the other data and satellite signature.

The surface splash is still considered gust and cannot be used directly for intensity estimate. WL150 converts to 158kt which is in line with flight-level data. KZC PWR also suggests somewhere between 160kt and 165kt.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Incredible how powerful this will be for SW Jamaica.

Does anyone have any webcams or storm chasers who are trying to post live in the core of the storm as it approaches?

It seems many have already gone down. Cell failure of one carrier has taken down a few.

[weeniepatrol]

TDR shows cat 5 winds at 34000 feet

[NotoSans]

Looks like no more recon. NOAA plane is now above operational level. AF has stopped transmitting and is too far from the storm now.

[StormPyrate]

Incredible how powerful this will be for SW Jamaica.

Does anyone have any webcams or storm chasers who are trying to post live in the core of the storm as it approaches?

It seems many have already gone down. Cell failure of one carrier has taken down a few.

the only one I can still find is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpE7rs9Nkg8

[edu2703]

Very strong winds on the webcam in Treasure Beach: https://www.youtube.com/live/z2HfoQ_HMfY

[StormPyrate]

Northern Jog

[tolakram]

STAY ON TOPIC please.

[CrazyC83]

This is a sick feeling knowing that so many people lie in the path of this monster. Jamaica will never be the same.

[Beef Stew]

The next recon we'll be getting looks to be once Melissa is between Jamaica and Cuba. Until then, it's just going to be surface observations. Landfall looks to be coming up quickly.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983181787473031335

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Very strong winds on the webcam in Treasure Beach: https://www.youtube.com/live/z2HfoQ_HMfY

Oh my goodness. Pray for Jamaica folks.

[Beef Stew]

This is a sick feeling knowing that so many people lie in the path of this monster. Jamaica will never be the same.

I'm afraid this is going to be Jamaica's Maria. I'm just hoping that the compact windfield minimizes damage to the most densely populated centers on the eastern half of the island. It's going to be terrible regardless...

[Teban54]

What’s g limit?

2.5Gs

Not what’s the G limit, what is G limit, the term?

G-force is a measure of force per unit mass exerted on an object, in terms of standard gravity. For example, if you're standing on the ground, you experience 1.0 G upward, which cancels out the 1G of gravity and allows you to be stationary.

In aviation, it's commonly used to describe the load factor, which describes the upward force exerted on the aircraft in terms of g-forces. In straight and level flight, you're usually experiencing 1 G. Aircrafts making a turn (banking) usually increases the load factor required to maintain level flight, which is why you, as a passenger, may feel that you're "pushed" into your seat in the process. When the aircraft experiences turbulence, the load factor often fluctuates.

Each aircraft is rated for a maximum load factor, which specifies the maximum force that an aircraft can be subject to. Forces above this certified limit are unsafe, and can result in mechanical failures or even breaking up of the aircraft. Some standard values are listed here.

With the kind of wild elevation changes that the AF plane experienced in Melissa's eye, the aircraft was almost certainly experiencing intermittent or oscillating load factors higher than it was certified for. An inspection of the aircraft would likely be needed to see if they did any damage.

This is also why it would be a bad idea to go in for a second pass immediately: if the high G-forces already accelerated metal fatigue, the airframe could have already been made more fragile, which would increase the risk of a second pass even if the first pass turned out okay.

[tallywx]

Interesting that the NOAA plane flew all the way there just to make one pass. Some operational tolerance must have been exceeded.