NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[chris_fit]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMBPM0KYLgo

Live from Montego Bay

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Have there ever been 2 consecutive seasons with sub-900mb hurricanes?

Sub-900 mbar hurricanes are like legends. They only happen every so often, separated by a decade or not longer.

Having two seasons back to back with these kinds of hurricanes is a first in recorded Atlantic history.

...Or twice in a few months, if you're 2005. Not to diminish back-to-back seasons with sub 900 storms, because it's literally an unprecedented feat (and one, you could argue, that actually more impressive because it requires more than just one really conductive season), but I'm not sure we'll see another season this century where we have multiple sub-900 storms.

As the climate warms these once-rare storms are becoming more common.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

They say it only takes one storm to define the season...

And this was the third category 5 storm of the season. Despite a slightly slow start it has been a blockbuster season.

[Hurricane2022]

The eye still intact despite being well over the mountains

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983227705194651836

[johngaltfla]

Sad to say this, but it is crossing near the thinnest stretch of land in Western Jamaica. This bodes poorly for Cuba and the Southern Bahamas.

[CronkPSU]

maybe a dumb question but we all know the higher the elevation of a storm, the stronger the winds...if there are verified weather observatories that survive up in those mountains with higher winds, would those be counted for the official records?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Sad to say this, but it is crossing near the thinnest stretch of land in Western Jamaica. This bodes poorly for Cuba and the Southern Bahamas.

Mountains lower on this side of the island too. Even the little northward wobble will spare Melissa some of the higher peaks. Bad news for Cuba.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

maybe a dumb question but we all know the higher the elevation of a storm, the stronger the winds...if there are verified weather observatories that survive up in those mountains with higher winds, would those be counted for the official records?

Hurricane ratings are based on the 1-minute sustained windspeeds at 10 meters elevation. There will be higher winds at elevation, and that will be acknowledged in the TCR, but that doesn't change the landfall intensity.

[CronkPSU]

maybe a dumb question but we all know the higher the elevation of a storm, the stronger the winds...if there are verified weather observatories that survive up in those mountains with higher winds, would those be counted for the official records?

Hurricane ratings are based on the 1-minute sustained windspeeds at 10 meters elevation. There will be higher winds at elevation, and that will be acknowledged in the TCR, but that doesn't change the landfall intensity.

thanks, really helpful answer!

[weunice]

This is the storm I wish we had better visibility into ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hurricane_of_1780
Another October Caribbean monster ...

[WaveBreaking]

[rwfromkansas]

This is the storm I wish we had better visibility into ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hurricane_of_1780
Another October Caribbean monster ...

I was curious if there was a documentary on this hurricane, found a NOVA episode that kind of recreates it, so I am going to try to find that to watch.

This storm is absolutely a monster.

Is it possible it is wobbling to avoid the higher elevations?

[cheezyWXguy]

The eye still intact despite being well over the mountains

Yeah but you can tell the storm’s structure is taking a hit more than IR would suggest. On visible, it’s getting progressively harder to see the bottom of the eye. This is because the surface circulation’s movement is being slowed relatively by friction with land, while the higher levels aloft continue onward, resulting in tilting. Not to say it isn’t still catastrophically strong, but Jamaica is still going to weaken it by a good amount.

[Exalt]

Sad to say this, but it is crossing near the thinnest stretch of land in Western Jamaica. This bodes poorly for Cuba and the Southern Bahamas.

That’s what I was saying, this west of track movement gives it the most ideal conditions to either stay a Cat 5 or restrengthen over a larger portion of water before Cuba

[jconsor]

Agreed. The part of SE Cuba expected to be hit hardest (Santiago de Cuba) has very little precedent for Cat 3s, and none for Cat 4s:  https://x.com/yconsor/status/1983236668933988715

Sad to say this, but it is crossing near the thinnest stretch of land in Western Jamaica. This bodes poorly for Cuba and the Southern Bahamas.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Looking at the the peak 10 second flight level wind in southeast quadrant of the storm earlier during the Air Force mission. I was trying to give perspective of the wind field from the eye to the southeast compared to some of the coast. Landfall was in New Hope. Josh Morgerman in Crawford.



Closer:

[Exalt]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

[kevin]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

The last dropsonde before leaving had 894 mb with 7 kt surface wind so the most intense dropsonde (892 mb) was one earlier. That makes me think NHC will keep it at 892 mb in post-analysis unless surface measurements show a more intense storm. If they do decide to update it without new surface measurements I don't expect bigger shifts than 890 - 891 mb.

[ATDoel]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

I think the only way they change it is if they get good land based data that indicate it was stronger than measured by HH.