NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Based on an analysis of recon data (TDR/HDOBs) and Cuban radar, I estimate that Josh's location in Crawford did see a brief pause in precip, but with gusty mesovortex winds to hurricane force. The location may have had glimpses of the stadium effect at times. His pressure observation won't be directly representative of the landfall intensity - at his distance from the eye, pressures could have been as high as 910mb w/ a 892mb landfall. The gradient was extremely sharp! Pressures above this could suggest some weakening prior to landfall, and pressures 900mb and below would at the very least confirm an 892mb landfall intensity & imply that it may have been stronger. Let's hope he had a barometer set up further west.

[Blown Away]

Based on an analysis of recon data (TDR/HDOBs) and Cuban radar, I estimate that Josh's location in Crawford did see a brief pause in precip, but with gusty mesovortex winds to hurricane force. The location may have had glimpses of the stadium effect at times. His pressure observation won't be directly representative of the landfall intensity - at his distance from the eye, pressures could have been as high as 910mb w/ a 892mb landfall. The gradient was extremely sharp! Pressures above this could suggest some weakening prior to landfall, and pressures 900mb and below would at the very least confirm an 892mb landfall intensity & imply that it may have been stronger. Let's hope he had a barometer set up further west.

Josh M was literally on the E edge of that eyewall. I was hoping he would see the stadium since he documents these storms so amazingly well.

[Ubuntwo]

So you think the gusts being updated and changing every 5 minutes is just for show?
The airport closed this morning and there are internet connection outages all over the island but Weather Underground is usually connected to something.

The airport normally needs to have up to the minute wind speed information for take offs and landings. 5 or 10 mph wrong and you can cause an excursion.

They have a history section for the airport station and the most recent observation is from 5 AM, despite regularly updating "current conditions":


NWS also has direct obs from the airport & the most recent one is from 5 AM as well.
https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/MKJS.html

I would agree that Wunderground appears to be displaying model outputs. Though I would be surprised if Montego Bay saw conditions exceeding category 2 due to the rapid deterioration we observed.

[Nimbus]

Based on an analysis of recon data (TDR/HDOBs) and Cuban radar, I estimate that Josh's location in Crawford did see a brief pause in precip, but with gusty mesovortex winds to hurricane force. The location may have had glimpses of the stadium effect at times. His pressure observation won't be directly representative of the landfall intensity - at his distance from the eye, pressures could have been as high as 910mb w/ a 892mb landfall. The gradient was extremely sharp! Pressures above this could suggest some weakening prior to landfall, and pressures 900mb and below would at the very least confirm an 892mb landfall intensity & imply that it may have been stronger. Let's hope he had a barometer set up further west.

Southern shore of west Jamaica is a disaster area now, he must have been caught up helping with search and rescue. Maybe upload some video tonight?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Is that an eye coming out? If the mid-level core survived the mountains and drills down the surface we could be off to the races again.

[Ubuntwo]

Based on an analysis of recon data (TDR/HDOBs) and Cuban radar, I estimate that Josh's location in Crawford did see a brief pause in precip, but with gusty mesovortex winds to hurricane force. The location may have had glimpses of the stadium effect at times. His pressure observation won't be directly representative of the landfall intensity - at his distance from the eye, pressures could have been as high as 910mb w/ a 892mb landfall. The gradient was extremely sharp! Pressures above this could suggest some weakening prior to landfall, and pressures 900mb and below would at the very least confirm an 892mb landfall intensity & imply that it may have been stronger. Let's hope he had a barometer set up further west.

Southern shore of west Jamaica is a disaster area now, he must have been caught up helping with search and rescue. Maybe upload some video tonight?

I hope he's alright. The entire parish is without internet/electricity, so he will need to wait on access to Starlink or the like before any uploads. I would concur disaster response is probably his priority at the moment. Crawford saw the RMW for over an hour.

Josh M was literally on the E edge of that eyewall. I was hoping he would see the stadium since he documents these storms so amazingly well.

Crawford was balanced on the razor's edge. +- .5 miles would have made the difference. Parallax, inward slope of the eye, and mesovortex timing makes it really tough to say whether he saw the stadium or not.

[Hurrilurker]

Jamaica's terrain really put the clamps on it more than I expected for a relatively short pass, but it looks like it's recovering quickly offshore. Wouldn't be surprised to see it get back down to the 940s.

[Nimbus]

So you think the gusts being updated and changing every 5 minutes is just for show?
The airport closed this morning and there are internet connection outages all over the island but Weather Underground is usually connected to something.

The airport normally needs to have up to the minute wind speed information for take offs and landings. 5 or 10 mph wrong and you can cause an excursion.

They have a history section for the airport station and the most recent observation is from 5 AM, despite regularly updating "current conditions":
https://i.imgur.com/BSPiIyS.png

NWS also has direct obs from the airport & the most recent one is from 5 AM as well.
https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/MKJS.html

I would agree that Wunderground appears to be displaying model outputs. Though I would be surprised if Montego Bay saw conditions exceeding category 2 due to the rapid deterioration we observed.

Its not model output changing every couple minutes.
Would have to be an elaborate hoax on the part of Weather Underground.
Just changed again and I'm thinking the airport just stopped updating their web page and left their wind speed observations connected to Weather Underground?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

So you think the gusts being updated and changing every 5 minutes is just for show?
The airport closed this morning and there are internet connection outages all over the island but Weather Underground is usually connected to something.

The airport normally needs to have up to the minute wind speed information for take offs and landings. 5 or 10 mph wrong and you can cause an excursion.

They have a history section for the airport station and the most recent observation is from 5 AM, despite regularly updating "current conditions":
https://i.imgur.com/BSPiIyS.png

NWS also has direct obs from the airport & the most recent one is from 5 AM as well.
https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/MKJS.html

I would agree that Wunderground appears to be displaying model outputs. Though I would be surprised if Montego Bay saw conditions exceeding category 2 due to the rapid deterioration we observed.

Its not model output changing every couple minutes.
Would have to be an elaborate hoax on the part of Weather Underground.
Just changed again and I'm thinking the airport just stopped updating their we page and left their wind speed observations connected to Weather Underground.

https://imgur.com/4YHFT8T

Those huge weather aggregators fake their outputs all the time. Fake radars based on satellite imagery, etc. So much garbage from those sites. If you can’t see the original data, don’t trust it.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1983282541944607176

 https://x.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1983183276253872558

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like she is off to the races again. Fortunately she doesnt have much time to really intensify.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like she is off to the races again. Fortunately she doesnt have much time to really intensify.

[sasha_B]

Melissa's eye does seem to be warming up pretty quickly now, despite the serious deterioration that's been evident from satellite and recon observations.

[Kazmit]

Looks like the time over land worked as a sort of pseudo EWRC that has given it a much larger eye.

[dukeblue219]

Quite the eye popping out tonight.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ok, Melissa is not done yet by any means. I fear she is rapidly intensifying once more.

[Nuno]

Melissa after landfall looking like a "mature" cyclone. The october big eyed storms. Much larger eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

It also seems to be moving more northeast - that would give it a bit more time over water.

[Nimbus]

Melissa after landfall looking like a "mature" cyclone. The october big eyed storms. Much larger eyewall.

Agreed these have large wind and precipitation fields and so damage is more widespread.
Larger eye hopefully won't go below 940 again NHC still kept her at cat 3 for destructive potential.
Cuba needs to get their final preps done.
At least she is moving faster now so the precip totals will only have hours not days.

[aspen]

What’s going on with the AF plane? They’re circling at ~5200 gpm, still several hundred miles out from Melissa.