Texas Fall 2025

[Ntxw]

Yep Euro is trending 30s now everywhere and freeze basically rural and Red River areas northward towards the conglomerate. Frost/freezes north of I-10, outside the immediate urban areas which should be in the 30s.

While not overly impressive, where it came from (Arctic) should've been telling. Models were too warm with it a week ago around this time.







Current GFS.

[wxman22]

The NAM

[Brent]

Crazy to see 20s and back near 80 in the forecast

I think we need a snow pack up north to really flip the pattern more than a couple days

[Stratton23]

Brent we will in the coming weeks, it is still early in november and we usually dont have a huge snow pack across the US just yet though its starting to expand south somewhat, the fact that we could see potential freezing low temperatures all the way down to SE texas behind this front for early November when we dont have a widespread established snowpack yet is pretty impressive

[Brent]

Brent we will in the coming weeks, it is still early in november and we usually dont have a huge snow pack across the US just yet though its starting to expand south somewhat, the fact that we could see potential freezing low temperatures all the way down to SE texas behind this front for early November when we dont have a widespread established snowpack yet is pretty impressive

Apparently it's super late for Denver to not have snow yet but I get your point the weekend cold snap is pretty impressive despite that but really going back to 80 after is rough

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Brent we will in the coming weeks, it is still early in november and we usually dont have a huge snow pack across the US just yet though its starting to expand south somewhat, the fact that we could see potential freezing low temperatures all the way down to SE texas behind this front for early November when we dont have a widespread established snowpack yet is pretty impressive

Apparently it's super late for Denver to not have snow yet but I get your point the weekend cold snap is pretty impressive despite that but really going back to 80 after is rough

Avg snowfall is Oct 18th here in Denver. It's not looking good till maybe Thanksgiving. We need help from the MJO. Currently, we are having days in the mid-60's for the last 3 weeks. Bright sunshine and warm for the last month.
This reminds me very much of 2021, my first winter here, we had a little snow the night before Thanksgiving. Then on New years Eve we got dumped on. Then, every 5 days until April, we had snow. So i think we will catch up eventually. I anticipate the 5H will shift more and more to the west and direct the jet stream into a much more favorable path for us.

[Brent]

Brent we will in the coming weeks, it is still early in november and we usually dont have a huge snow pack across the US just yet though its starting to expand south somewhat, the fact that we could see potential freezing low temperatures all the way down to SE texas behind this front for early November when we dont have a widespread established snowpack yet is pretty impressive

Apparently it's super late for Denver to not have snow yet but I get your point the weekend cold snap is pretty impressive despite that but really going back to 80 after is rough

Avg snowfall is Oct 18th here in Denver. It's not looking good till maybe Thanksgiving. We need help from the MJO. Currently, we are having days in the mid-60's for the last 3 weeks. Bright sunshine and warm for the last month.
This reminds me very much of 2021, my first winter here, we had a little snow the night before Thanksgiving. Then on New years Eve we got dumped on. Then, every 5 days until April, we had snow. So i think we will catch up eventually. I anticipate the 5H will shift more and more to the west and direct the jet stream into a much more favorable path for us.

I just remember being in Breckenridge last December 7th and it was like the middle of winter on snow pack I remember them saying

Hopefully things flip soon because I see no snow there

I mean I have heard a stormier pattern is coming once we warm back up

[Ntxw]

Apparently it's super late for Denver to not have snow yet but I get your point the weekend cold snap is pretty impressive despite that but really going back to 80 after is rough

Avg snowfall is Oct 18th here in Denver. It's not looking good till maybe Thanksgiving. We need help from the MJO. Currently, we are having days in the mid-60's for the last 3 weeks. Bright sunshine and warm for the last month.
This reminds me very much of 2021, my first winter here, we had a little snow the night before Thanksgiving. Then on New years Eve we got dumped on. Then, every 5 days until April, we had snow. So i think we will catch up eventually. I anticipate the 5H will shift more and more to the west and direct the jet stream into a much more favorable path for us.

I just remember being in Breckenridge last December 7th and it was like the middle of winter on snow pack I remember them saying

Hopefully things flip soon because I see no snow there

I think the PDO is about to shift, and the Atlantic side blocking was there last year and probably some this year. For Denver and the front range that eastern trough is a dry-ish one. Need a big -RNA which I think peaked a few years ago. I think it will be a good winter for the mid-section of the country including Denver but will be a slow start due to the blocking.

Big ridges on and off this winter in the intermountain west at times due to the NAO/+PNA tendencies.

[lukem]

Avg snowfall is Oct 18th here in Denver. It's not looking good till maybe Thanksgiving. We need help from the MJO. Currently, we are having days in the mid-60's for the last 3 weeks. Bright sunshine and warm for the last month.
This reminds me very much of 2021, my first winter here, we had a little snow the night before Thanksgiving. Then on New years Eve we got dumped on. Then, every 5 days until April, we had snow. So i think we will catch up eventually. I anticipate the 5H will shift more and more to the west and direct the jet stream into a much more favorable path for us.

I just remember being in Breckenridge last December 7th and it was like the middle of winter on snow pack I remember them saying

Hopefully things flip soon because I see no snow there

I think the PDO is about to shift, and the Atlantic side blocking was there last year and probably some this year. For Denver and the front range that eastern trough is a dry-ish one. Need a big -RNA which I think peaked a few years ago. I think it will be a good winter for the mid-section of the country including Denver but will be a slow start due to the blocking.

Big ridges on and off this winter in the intermountain west at times due to the NAO/+PNA tendencies.

Do you think this will be a long-term shift into a new positive PDO era, or a temporary one like we saw in 2015?

[Ntxw]

I just remember being in Breckenridge last December 7th and it was like the middle of winter on snow pack I remember them saying

Hopefully things flip soon because I see no snow there

I think the PDO is about to shift, and the Atlantic side blocking was there last year and probably some this year. For Denver and the front range that eastern trough is a dry-ish one. Need a big -RNA which I think peaked a few years ago. I think it will be a good winter for the mid-section of the country including Denver but will be a slow start due to the blocking.

Big ridges on and off this winter in the intermountain west at times due to the NAO/+PNA tendencies.

Do you think this will be a long-term shift into a new positive PDO era, or a temporary one like we saw in 2015?

These things are hard to predict in terms of duration but the progression of the equatorial warm pool in the IO->WPAC indicates we will eventually see an El Nino of sorts soon, if not next year then probably the following. The PDO likely gears up for it alongside. Should it flip it will last some years, the previous one lasted 5-6 years.

[wxman22]

A Freeze Watch was just issued here.

[869MB]

I think the PDO is about to shift, and the Atlantic side blocking was there last year and probably some this year. For Denver and the front range that eastern trough is a dry-ish one. Need a big -RNA which I think peaked a few years ago. I think it will be a good winter for the mid-section of the country including Denver but will be a slow start due to the blocking.

Big ridges on and off this winter in the intermountain west at times due to the NAO/+PNA tendencies.

Do you think this will be a long-term shift into a new positive PDO era, or a temporary one like we saw in 2015?

These things are hard to predict in terms of duration but the progression of the equatorial warm pool in the IO->WPAC indicates we will eventually see an El Nino of sorts soon, if not next year then probably the following. The PDO likely gears up for it alongside. Should it flip it will last some years, the previous one lasted 5-6 years.

I’m fairly confident we will see an El Niño by the end of next year due to that warm pool you’re eluding to…we just need some effective Kelvin waves by the end of Spring/beginning of Summer to get the transition kickstarted. I’ve been wanting to say I feel the PDO will eventually flip positive, but I don’t want to jinx it. More importantly, I want to believe that this forthcoming flip will be the one that transitions us eventually into predominantly +PDO for the next 20 or so years, but I definitely don’t want to get way ahead of myself with this line of thinking.

Nonetheless, an El Niño coupled with a +PDO, even if just temporarily for a few years, would be a real game changer and would be a welcomed relief for us especially here in SC & SE TX.

[Ntxw]

Do you think this will be a long-term shift into a new positive PDO era, or a temporary one like we saw in 2015?

These things are hard to predict in terms of duration but the progression of the equatorial warm pool in the IO->WPAC indicates we will eventually see an El Nino of sorts soon, if not next year then probably the following. The PDO likely gears up for it alongside. Should it flip it will last some years, the previous one lasted 5-6 years.

I’m fairly confident we will see an El Niño by the end of next year due to that warm pool you’re eluding to…we just need some effective Kelvin waves by the end of Spring/beginning of Summer to get the transition kickstarted. I’ve been wanting to say I feel the PDO will eventually flip positive, but I don’t want to jinx it. More importantly, I want to believe that this forthcoming flip will be the one that transitions us eventually into predominantly +PDO for the next 20 or so years, but I definitely don’t want to get way ahead of myself with this line of thinking.

Nonetheless, an El Niño coupled with a +PDO, even if just temporarily for a few years, would be a real game changer and would be a welcomed relief for us especially here in SC & SE TX.

The reason I think a PDO flip may be in the cards is last winter and this summer we did not see the extreme -PDO tendencies in the broad pattern (persistent Aleutian ridge). I do think we are in a ~2013-2015 ish type transition period. If we were looking a deep -PDO/Nina second year then this winter would be sure fire bet to torch. But because the atmosphere has not been playing ball gives us some hope.

[Ntxw]

NWS is now forecasting even the inner urban areas to get close to freezing (North Texas) so you know 20s will be in the surrounding areas. Freeze watches/advisories may be needed, extending down to central Texas. It's been fun to watch this air mass slosh up there and come down.

This was a good early season stress test for modeling of some Arctic origin air, driven by an early season powerhouse HP system. The pattern and air source strategy turned out to be a little better than the model world.

[TomballEd]

A freeze to kill vegetation during a drought and then perhaps a return to warm weather won't do anything good for fireweather.

[HockeyTx82]

NWS is now forecasting even the inner urban areas to get close to freezing (North Texas) so you know 20s will be in the surrounding areas. Freeze watches/advisories may be needed, extending down to central Texas. It's been fun to watch this air mass slosh up there and come down.

This was a good early season stress test for modeling of some Arctic origin air, driven by an early season powerhouse HP system. The pattern and air source strategy turned out to be a little better than the model world.

https://i.imgur.com/rI7MopG.png

https://i.imgur.com/aWYv7Kq.png

Can you copy paste this for sometime in January or February?

[rwfromkansas]

What is that site or model that tracks the origin of airmasses? I recall a post recently showing that. Need to bookmark this stuff.

Anyway, begone mosquitoes. FWD is following the NAM pretty well and shows 30 IMBY along the 35W corridor in north Fort Worth. I think it is likely basically anywhere from a few miles east of 35W on west get a freeze since we don't have as much of the heat island effect.