Texas Winter 2025-2026

Winter Weather Discussion

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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#1281 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Dec 30, 2025 9:44 pm

Brent wrote:Theres definitely still a signal here around the 10th 11th

I think it's gonna be later in January for a better setup though. It's just so far out still

Again what is disturbing me is the lack of moisture the last few weeks

Apparently even with the cold start OKC will make the top 10 warmest Decembers... Right behind last year...


Been dominated by HP thus far. High means dry and so in that regard it's been a typical La Nina pattern unfortunately across Oklahoma and Texas.
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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#1282 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Dec 30, 2025 9:44 pm

Probably mid 70’s, I dont think the warmup in early january is going to be nearly as warm as what we just saw, and its a brief mild period as the transition to a colder pattern starts, it takes some time for things to switch
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#1283 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 30, 2025 10:04 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Probably mid 70’s, I dont think the warmup in early january is going to be nearly as warm as what we just saw, and its a brief mild period as the transition to a colder pattern starts, it takes some time for things to switch


Right I mean if it follows the usual pattern it might even be February

It's not gonna happen quick.. unless we can get something big up here earlier to change the pattern but I'm not holding my breath on that with how dry it's been
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#1284 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Dec 30, 2025 11:22 pm

Crazy range in temps across my area right now. Forecasted low is 34. In town it's low 30s and rural it's mid to upper 20s.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#1285 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 31, 2025 12:06 am

GFS still showing the winter storm threat next weekend here
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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#1286 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Dec 31, 2025 1:48 am

After looking at the newest ensemble runs tonight , not only does the pattern look good for potentially winter mischief across the state in mid january, but i do have a thought in my head that this could be a really significant cold air dam bursting event, setup looks like a mix of 2014, 2021, it already looks cold already, but i think the possibility of a severe arctic outbreak with a tanking - EPO is definitely at least in the cards
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#1287 Postby Sambucol2024 » Wed Dec 31, 2025 2:11 am

Stratton23 wrote:After looking at the newest ensemble runs tonight , not only does the pattern look good for potentially winter mischief across the state in mid january, but i do have a thought in my head that this could be a really significant cold air dam bursting event, setup looks like a mix of 2014, 2021, it already looks cold already, but i think the possibility of a severe arctic outbreak with a tanking - EPO is definitely at least in the cards


2021 as in record breaking temps?
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#1288 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Dec 31, 2025 2:41 am

Sambucol2024 unlikely, that kind of cold is going to be difficult to repeat, but I do think potential is here for an outbreak maybe similar to December 2022, except this time we may have a more active DTJ
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