Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snownado]

Not sure about Tulsa but OKC is definitely top 10 which is crazy to me. I remember the posts from Arkansas about the record cold week to start never seen before and then it just all went poof like that

Ironically that was the only precip this month too. It's really been awful

We deserve a big flip in January haha

Indeed about the dryness. December 2025 will also be the 6th driest on record for DFW with only 0.08".

[snownado]

Believe it or not, despite a roller coastet month tempwise, December 2025 is still on track for a top 10 warmest at DFW, possibly even tying or beating 2023 for #6...

For perspective, this will be the 3rd consecutive top 10 warmest December for DFW (2024 was #3) and 4th top 10 warmest December this decade (for those who might have forgot, 2021 sits at a extremely comfortable #1).

And Dec 2022 was saved by a singular dramatic arctic blast but still ended up +2.2F above normal. Had that not happened I have no doubt it would've been another top 10. Going forward, just predict above normal for December, you will be right 95% of the time even if it starts cold. Go back 10+ years and it's still all above normal. For all intents and purposes for us now December is an extended Fall month.

The 2001-2030 averages are really going to be something else.

Fortunately, we got a long while before we see them.

[Ntxw]

Not sure about Tulsa but OKC is definitely top 10 which is crazy to me. I remember the posts from Arkansas about the record cold week to start never seen before and then it just all went poof like that

Ironically that was the only precip this month too. It's really been awful

We deserve a big flip in January haha

45.5F currently in Tulsa will finish around that. Top 10, anywhere from 7-10, don't think it will surpass 46F for a top 5 run.

Tulsa Climo, NWS Tulsa has a great climate page!

https://www.weather.gov/tsa/climo_tuldecstemp

https://www.weather.gov/tsa/climo_tulrecbook#temp

[Ntxw]

Believe it or not, despite a roller coastet month tempwise, December 2025 is still on track for a top 10 warmest at DFW, possibly even tying or beating 2023 for #6...

For perspective, this will be the 3rd consecutive top 10 warmest December for DFW (2024 was #3) and 4th top 10 warmest December this decade (for those who might have forgot, 2021 sits at a extremely comfortable #1).

And Dec 2022 was saved by a singular dramatic arctic blast but still ended up +2.2F above normal. Had that not happened I have no doubt it would've been another top 10. Going forward, just predict above normal for December, you will be right 95% of the time even if it starts cold. Go back 10+ years and it's still all above normal. For all intents and purposes for us now December is an extended Fall month.

The 2001-2030 averages are really going to be something else.

Fortunately, we got a long while before we seen them.

We're already running ahead of 2001-2030 averages. We're not getting the 2001-2015 numbers anymore, above that consistently 2015-current. So whatever the new average will be, it's a lagging indicator.

[TomballEd]

Negative EPO, or as I think of it, flow up to the cold places up north can displace cold air to here. All that one can really look at this far out with any degree of confidence.

[Ntxw]

The next 7-10 days looks above normal, with minimal chances for precip. The prior models that showed storms from 3rd-8th is looking like it was a head-fake. +EPO regime we're looking to punt the first week-ish (not a surprise) but the EPO will likely flip to negative after the first week. We'll start seeing some cold and storms near mid month.

Ridge off the west and east coast still looks favorable for us. Mid month looks more like the real deal than the week prior.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles continue to look really good, operational models at this range are near useless, unless for fantasy fun purposes lol, i expect as we get closer to this time frame that the models will eventually get a lot more “ exciting” in my opinion.

[txtwister78]

Mid month has been on repeat here the last several days so nothing has changed in that regard. Way too early however to start attaching type/severity level of cold just yet or anything to do with moisture but at least the signal is there of what we look for to setup the delivery of cold into our neck of the woods.

Above normal temps also still on track in the meantime. All about waiting at this point.

[Harp.1]

Ensembles continue to look really good, operational models at this range are near useless, unless for fantasy fun purposes lol, i expect as we get closer to this time frame that the models will eventually get a lot more “ exciting” in my opinion.

Are the GFS and Euro ensembles similar, or is there a disparity? Just curious

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 both have a strong- EPO, but differences in the placement of the trough, EPS has a further east trough, but energy undercutting the block and an active STJ texas so still a favorable road for a winter storm across texas, GEFS has a more west- central based trough, both ensembles are still chilly though, in fact all the ensembles are

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 both have a strong- EPO, but differences in the placement of the trough, EPS has a further east trough, but energy undercutting the block and an active STJ texas so still a favorable road for a winter storm across texas, GEFS has a more west- central based trough, both ensembles are still chilly though, in fact all the ensembles are

Ok, thanks. I’m observing and watching from SE Louisiana, so I’m always interested in what happens in SE Texas.

[Stratton23]

No problem, personally i would like to see the EPS back up more west with the trough, but i certainly cannot complain about what the ensembles show, i have a feeling someones going to win the jack pot down the road, we will see

[Stratton23]

18z AI GFS looks similar to the 1985 january outbreak, looking at analog 500 mb height patterns, looks very similar to me, GFS looks decent as well, once that - EPO ridge pops off, its game on

[wxman22]

Norman is mentioning the potential pattern change.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The AI GFS looks like a dream run. Save that one.

[HockeyTx82]

Norman is mentioning the potential pattern change.

https://i.ibb.co/1tmkGjy1/605246102-1338197065012589-538755824607689797-n.jpg

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

[Stratton23]

Trend on the 18z GEFS is for a deeper west central trough and a stronger - EPO ridge, should see even colder trends in the days ahead

[Harp.1]

Man, we just need those troughs to dig a little further west….

[wxman22]

[Sambucol2024]

Trend on the 18z GEFS is for a deeper west central trough and a stronger - EPO ridge, should see even colder trends in the days ahead

When should we start heading to the stores for winter preps ?