Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

txtwister78 probably, its honestly just a head scratcher trying to figure out what comes next, i wish winters weren’t this difficult to forecast, unfortunately thats the price for living down here, we dont get easy winters to forecast lol

Agreed but that also makes the chase even more fun/awesome when one of these comes together and hits.

Yep, 100% agree with that. You can go live up north all you want, but snow there is the norm and not really exciting.

[orangeblood]

After a quick hitting cold shot next weekend, not a bad look for a repeat cold shot setup end of Jan from the 12Z GEFS

[Cpv17]

After a quick hitting cold shot next weekend, not a bad look for a repeat cold shot setup end of Jan from the 12Z GEFS

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_stream/1768046400/1769428800-qloAgSXEVl0.png

Will we ever get anything inside of 10 days? I’m no longer believing anything past 10 days anymore, not even ensembles.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 I think its at least more believable this time because the MJO is actually finally getting a boost out of the null phase and into 7 and likely 8, i get the skepticism though, the MJO being stuck in the null phase for the last several weeks has really killed any signal for sustainable cold, I do think we are going in the right direction though, we will see

[Stratton23]

18z GFS still digs the trough out west, but surface temperatures are warmer, so its all cold rain, but its really close, will be interesting to see if ensembles tick up because the GFS has consistently been sticking with this idea, Euro made an adjustment back west to SW on its 12z run, again all we need is marginal cold ( 30-32 degrees ) and it could be fun, dont see anything significant yet, but lets see what happens, surprises happen from time to time

[Ntxw]

Cpv17 I think its at least more believable this time because the MJO is actually finally getting a boost out of the null phase and into 7 and likely 8, i get the skepticism though, the MJO being stuck in the null phase for the last several weeks has really killed any signal for sustainable cold, I do think we are going in the right direction though, we will see

Hard pass on P8. Ridging pops up here in p8 extended which is what the model generally shows. It needs to stay and loop in 7! Great for Panhandle of FL to Boston though.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw i thought P8 was favorable for us?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw i thought P8 was favorable for us?

P8 has never truly been favorable. It wasn't that favorable in December. Historically it is popular in social media and forecasters...for the east coast. I mean yeah it's better than P4-6 but it's east shunted. You want 7-8-1-2 quickly out of 8.

[Brent]

Yeah at this point the only slim hope I have anytime soon is next weekend and even that doesn't look that great to me

Everything else inside 10 days has fallen apart and trended to a torch

I just don't know about this winter.... Hopefully February can do better because the clock is ticking. I don't want this year to join the awful winters we've had here but it's becoming more likely by the weeks now

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Yeah at this point the only slim hope I have anytime soon is next weekend and even that doesn't look that great to me

Everything else inside 10 days has fallen apart and trended to a torch

I just don't know about this winter.... Hopefully February can do better because the clock is ticking. I don't want this year to join the awful winters we've had here but it's becoming more likely by the weeks now

Brent, I understand the frustration lol. We will ultimately miss it most likely in my area also. May not be our winter for different reasons. We can still be optimistic since it's Jan 10th but we will need a big shakeup, which im not sure we will get.

[Brent]

Yeah at this point the only slim hope I have anytime soon is next weekend and even that doesn't look that great to me

Everything else inside 10 days has fallen apart and trended to a torch

I just don't know about this winter.... Hopefully February can do better because the clock is ticking. I don't want this year to join the awful winters we've had here but it's becoming more likely by the weeks now

Brent, I understand the frustration lol. We will ultimately miss it most likely in my area also. May not be our winter for different reasons. We can still be optimistic since it's Jan 10th but we will need a big shakeup, which im not sure we will get.

It's like I said this morning ever since we had that cool front in August it just feels like something went horribly wrong. September and October were too warm... November was kind of normal for a bit then I always had concerns when we had the early cold but I mean the stretch since mid December has been beyond anything ever recorded here and it just won't go away now

[Stratton23]

Yep i definitely understand the frustration firsthand lol, but i think there is reason to be * Cautiously “ Optimistic. MJO finally getting a kick start is a great step in the right direction , and lets see how my crazy prediction of something fun happening around MLK day, if that pans out lol hahaha, but Brent id be very surprised if you dont get at least 1-2 decent systems before winter is over

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Yeah at this point the only slim hope I have anytime soon is next weekend and even that doesn't look that great to me

Everything else inside 10 days has fallen apart and trended to a torch

I just don't know about this winter.... Hopefully February can do better because the clock is ticking. I don't want this year to join the awful winters we've had here but it's becoming more likely by the weeks now

Brent, I understand the frustration lol. We will ultimately miss it most likely in my area also. May not be our winter for different reasons. We can still be optimistic since it's Jan 10th but we will need a big shakeup, which im not sure we will get.

It's like I said this morning ever since we had that cool front in August it just feels like something went horribly wrong. September and October were too warm... November was kind of normal for a bit then I always had concerns when we had the early cold but I mean the stretch since mid December has been beyond anything ever recorded here and it just won't go away now

It is interesting for sure. I personally don't like dry cold. I want some action.

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies has been thinking our best week is second week of Feb, couple of runs now.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Yep i definitely understand the frustration firsthand lol, but i think there is reason to be * Cautiously “ Optimistic. MJO finally getting a kick start is a great step in the right direction , and lets see how my crazy prediction of something fun happening around MLK day, if that pans out lol hahaha, but Brent id be very surprised if you dont get at least 1-2 decent systems before winter is over

Stratton, if the mjo makes it there eventually to phase 7 and if it dont get cold, then it's just not happening from various reasons this winter. We just aren't getting that shakeup most want

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Euro weeklies has been thinking our best week is second week of Feb, couple of runs now.

They aren't very accurate imo

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies has been thinking our best week is second week of Feb, couple of runs now.

They aren't very accurate imo

To be fair, they've never been cold. We just interpreted that way from 500mb but they've largely shown near to above normal most of the winter so far. Some times we see what we want to see and not what it actually has!

From Dec 25th for the coming week.



Week after

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Euro weeklies has been thinking our best week is second week of Feb, couple of runs now.

They aren't very accurate imo

To be fair, they've never been cold. We just interpreted that way from 500mb but they've largely shown near to above normal most of the winter so far. Some times we see what we want to see and not what it actually has!

From Dec 25th for the coming week.

https://i.imgur.com/vI4dac4.png

Week after

https://i.imgur.com/5NmLpsc.png

Regardless, we need some type of shakeup to get things turned around imo.

[Ntxw]

They aren't very accurate imo

To be fair, they've never been cold. We just interpreted that way from 500mb but they've largely shown near to above normal most of the winter so far. Some times we see what we want to see and not what it actually has!

From Dec 25th for the coming week.

https://i.imgur.com/vI4dac4.png

Week after

https://i.imgur.com/5NmLpsc.png

Regardless, we need some type of shakeup to get things turned around imo.

I'm only pointing it out because it's what looks different. It could be totally wrong but if we're looking for anything than that is the 'next' thing.

[Stratton23]

ill make a fun bet with everyone, if im right about the shortwave and possibly some frozen fun around MLK, ill become the official/ unofficial cold miser of the group, and ill change my avatar to the cold miser. If im wrong however, ill change my avatar to the heat miser ( similar to wxman57’s avatar ) for the rest of this winter! How does that sound everyone? Just though id have a little fun here lol