Texas Winter 2025-2026

[wxman22]

The 3k NAM shows snow showers, but will it reach the ground or be virga is the question.

[Tireman4]

Good news to report heights have risen in Alaska. They are going to warm up from the deep freeze! After spending forever below zero (since mid Dec) Fairbanks may get all the way up close to freezing !

https://i.imgur.com/IsnyzD4.gif

Meanwhile for us the cooldowns begin! Kudos to Stratton for sticking to his guns, ~mid month brought about change. There is at least 2 or 3 successive fronts/cold air masses the next week or so as what looked like ~near normal may bring more below normal. Will the big one occur?

They have had a brutal winter. Just absolutely brutal and that is saying something for them.

[Ntxw]

The 3k NAM shows snow showers, but will it reach the ground or be virga is the question.

https://i.ibb.co/cSSx5YpY/IMG-0561.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/S4dt8Jzb/IMG-0562.jpg

Rooting for the Lake-enhanced! Warm waters, disturbance overhead creating W-E winds, slight north/nw wind at the surface.

[Brent]

Officially the warmest January on record here right now

And yeah Fairbanks was almost #1 for below zero days. It was insane even for them

[Wthrfan]

Good news to report heights have risen in Alaska. They are going to warm up from the deep freeze! After spending forever below zero (since mid Dec) Fairbanks may get all the way up close to freezing !

https://i.imgur.com/IsnyzD4.gif

Meanwhile for us the cooldowns begin! Kudos to Stratton for sticking to his guns, ~mid month brought about change. There is at least 2 or 3 successive fronts/cold air masses the next week or so as what looked like ~near normal may bring more below normal. Will the big one occur?

They have had a brutal winter. Just absolutely brutal and that is saying something for them.

Have a good friend that moved to Juneau last summer. He says it's been the coldest and snowiest winter they have had in 30 or 40 years.

[snownado]

Not in our region, but apparently, Detroit got a surprised 4-7" of snow yesterday (only an 1" or less was expected) and Toronto's worst storm in at least a decade is underway. Again, also not originally expected.

I'm posting this to show you how quickly weather setups can evolve despite model outputs, for those who are hoping for true winter weather at some point this season here in TX/OK...

[wxman57]

I just received word that one of our clients would like an in-person presentation about the 2025 hurricane season and an outlook for 2026. Bad news is that the presentation would be in - ST. CROIX. Date would be the 24th-27th, while the Gulf coast is freezing. Who in the world would want to be on a warm Caribbean island while everyone along the Gulf coast is freezing? I can't think of anyone. What a ridiculous request!

The audacity of that client. How dare he? Why would one ask such a thing? You have every right to turn that down.

Looks like it's going to be a remote presentation. I researched flights from Houston to St. Croix. No nonstop flights, have to go through Atlanta or Miami. Fastest flight is about 8 hrs, not counting travel time to the airport an hour's drive from my house and being there 2 hours early. That makes it about 11-12 hours travel time both there and back for a 15 min presentation. Also, for some reason, hotels in St. Croix are quite expensive this time of year (Disney deluxe resort expensive). Trip cost would be $2500-$3000, which the client would pay. One of my teammates is from San Juan and is there now, actually. This forecaster is presenting at the AMS conference in Houston on the 25th-26th, so he/she cannot travel to St. Croix. Oh well, I can put on a tropical shirt and present from southwest Houston.

Quick look at 12Z models and some Gulf coast locations, like south Louisiana, could see some sleet and snowflakes Sunday morning, but surface temps will likely be above freezing there. That'll be true for coastal parishes and counties on Sunday from LA to FL. Farther north, away from the coast, there could be some travel issues.

[HockeyTx82]

100 pages and not a single snow flake has fallen for most if not all of us here.

We are desperate and due for a big one!

[Ntxw]

100 pages and not a single snow flake has fallen for most if not all of us here.

We are desperate and due for a big one!

Look DFW has never had a season without at least a trace of winter precip in 127+ years of record keeping! The streak is under threat, it better deliver at least ONE snowflake Saturday, we will make 5 pages out of it.

[txtwister78]

The GFS is so bad I think it's going to end up missing on the SE event it's been advertising. Euro probably has the better solution with moisture staying mostly offshore .

[HockeyTx82]

100 pages and not a single snow flake has fallen for most if not all of us here.

We are desperate and due for a big one!

Look DFW has never had a season without at least a trace of winter precip in 127+ years of record keeping! The streak is under threat, it better deliver at least ONE snowflake Saturday, we will make 5 pages out of it.

Yup, the stores will be empty and we will "SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING"

[Tireman4]

https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/south ... dium=email

[JayDT]

100 pages and not a single snow flake has fallen for most if not all of us here.

We are desperate and due for a big one!

Look DFW has never had a season without at least a trace of winter precip in 127+ years of record keeping! The streak is under threat, it better deliver at least ONE snowflake Saturday, we will make 5 pages out of it.

I’ll be ready to contribute

[orangeblood]

500 mb look has a lot of potential for a big southern plains winter storm Jan 24-26th time frame!!

[orangeblood]

Then big changes showing up with the Pacific jet crashing into the west coast towards the end of month, flooding the country with pacific air.

[Stratton23]

Yup, thats a good setup for something fun, give it another week and models should start to see things again, the EPS has been remarkably consistent with its 500 MB pattern so it has to be given the most weight here, also looks like GFS/ Euro have some sort of SSW the last week of january that could have implications in the 2nd half of february, we arent done by a long shot

[Stratton23]

orangeblood we may get a retraction briefly in the pacific , but id have to argue that it would be a temporary flip because the MJO looks like its going to go through at least 8 and 1 and those aren’t warm phases so we may have a bit of a battle going on, not seeing any signs of it going back into the null phase now, think brief period of pacific air in early february, but MJO going through 8 and likely 1 would strongly suggest the - EPO blocking pattern over NA returns sometime around the end of the first week of february

[Ntxw]

Then big changes showing up with the Pacific jet crashing into the west coast towards the end of month, flooding the country with pacific air.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1768478400/1769774400-38eA3MtE2Tw.png

This has been modeled pretty well by the weeklies. Towards the end of the month and beginning of Feb, an Aleutian low or trough pattern will take shape. This is another jet extension, and significant attack of the strat PV. Unfortunately for us this has yielded warmth more than usual this winter so another period of mild weather will come. Towards the middle and later part of Feb a more meaningful western trough will take place with -PNA. A cold pool will develop in W-Canada at that time, in tandem with the big hit to the SPV some time earlier. So mid-late Feb we will manifest another potential, of course climo by that time the further south you are, the less it is meaningful. So the next ~2 weeks need to cash, more so the southern tier.

[TomballEd]

I just received word that one of our clients would like an in-person presentation about the 2025 hurricane season and an outlook for 2026. Bad news is that the presentation would be in - ST. CROIX. Date would be the 24th-27th, while the Gulf coast is freezing. Who in the world would want to be on a warm Caribbean island while everyone along the Gulf coast is freezing? I can't think of anyone. What a ridiculous request!

To be paid, or at least take a tax write off, in the middle of winter, that is living your best life.

[txtwister78]

Yup, thats a good setup for something fun, give it another week and models should start to see things again, the EPS has been remarkably consistent with its 500 MB pattern so it has to be given the most weight here, also looks like GFS/ Euro have some sort of SSW the last week of january that could have implications in the 2nd half of february, we arent done by a long shot

And he's back! Lol. Concerned you were throwing in the towel there a day or two ago my friend.

In all seriousness late month (as I've been preaching for days) was always our window of opportunity because for the first time we can actually view some verifiable signals via the MJO and of course the impacts of that shifting our latitude blocking that in turn align better with what you look for to deliver the goods into our region. The EPS and even its AI demonstrate.that perfectly

Details this far out obviously as you and others point out are a long way from becoming reality but at least we've got a "real" chance here to cash in. Let the real model tracking begin! Lol