Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm sure we will see some sub 15F in NE TX tomorrow.

[Stratton23]

Newest CPC hazard outlook has a slight risk of hazardous excessive cold temperatures all the way down to central texas, the game is officially on folks!

[TomballEd]

Euro seems to suggest the possibility of some winter season severe for parts of Texas. Warm front near US 84 with mid 60sF DPs to the S of it. Right now looks like storms Sunday afternoon form on the front and move into cooler air, no free warm sector convection. But a week to change.

[wxman22]

Newest CPC hazard outlook has a slight risk of hazardous excessive cold temperatures all the way down to central texas, the game is officially on folks!

Yep, this has my attention lol.

[wxman22]

I wonder if the ICON got any upgrades over the last year. As the ICON has done a good job this season of NOT showing phantom winter storms. The ICON is an underrated model.The Euro is close to showing a big winter storm, especially if you assume the likely scenario that it is too warm with temps in this range.Just saying that to say that if I see the ICON and EURO get onboard with the storm I will feel more confident.

[WacoWx]

Point forecast just changed significantly for next weekend in Dallas.

[orangeblood]

Looking ahead, I know we have had ongoing discussions about the next week or two but my scope is shifting to the Aleutian trough pattern the ending days of Jan and opening week of Feb. I've noted several times, in winter true Aleutian low patterns are often precursors to big cold dumps. As they send poleward heat flux to attack the PV and perturb the troposphere-stratosphere couplet, yes we would deal with some warmth as it happens prior. This would annotate a mid to late Feb unusual cold snap, potentially. I would not be surprised if the coldest air of the season was during this time period for some.

https://i.imgur.com/EHiMj0f.png

https://i.imgur.com/Kmju9j1.png

https://i.imgur.com/2rz5xQo.png

I hope you’re onto something here because 1st part of Feb has Major Blowtorch potential for almost the entire NA continent

[Ntxw]

Looking ahead, I know we have had ongoing discussions about the next week or two but my scope is shifting to the Aleutian trough pattern the ending days of Jan and opening week of Feb. I've noted several times, in winter true Aleutian low patterns are often precursors to big cold dumps. As they send poleward heat flux to attack the PV and perturb the troposphere-stratosphere couplet, yes we would deal with some warmth as it happens prior. This would annotate a mid to late Feb unusual cold snap, potentially. I would not be surprised if the coldest air of the season was during this time period for some.

https://i.imgur.com/EHiMj0f.png

https://i.imgur.com/Kmju9j1.png

https://i.imgur.com/2rz5xQo.png

I hope you’re onto something here because 1st part of Feb has Major Blowtorch potential for almost the entire NA continent

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1768651200/1769947200-yq7QrXlMdnA.png

Indeed, I fully expect warmth as the Aleutian low sets up. But the strat will play a much bigger role than any point this winter so far. We will start to feel the effects of the onset of El Nino. The pattern in Feb will probably sway away from what we have seen, possibly a strong finish to winter.

[Stratton23]

Thays some big long duration cold on the 18z AI GFS wow

[Ntxw]

18z GFS has a ton of cold air to the north. Bulldozer.

[Harp.1]

18z GFS has a ton of cold air to the north. Bulldozer.

But it’s dry for now. Arrghhhh!!!

[Stratton23]

Dont worry about that, this far out, besides it might not be a dry run, i see a couple of shortwaves coming off the coast of california that may try to interact with the cold air on this gfs run

[Harp.1]

Dont worry about that, this far out, besides it might not be a dry run, i see a couple of shortwaves coming off the coast of california that may try to interact with the cold air on this gfs run

Cold air came in from a completely different angle from the last run.

[txtwister78]

The GFS has overunning written all over it. A ton of arctic air in the midwest...those temps further south would be colder with that presentation

[Stratton23]

Bingo, also interesting to see a - NAO block, that would essentially trap the cold air in the south for an extended period

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has a ton of cold air to the north. Bulldozer.

But it’s dry for now. Arrghhhh!!!

You spoke too soon, because look at 10-12 days from now:


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk25L.png

[Harp.1]

18z GFS has a ton of cold air to the north. Bulldozer.

But it’s dry for now. Arrghhhh!!!

You spoke too soon, because look at 10-12 days from now:

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk25L.png Realize, I’m over in south Louisiana. I’m looking at if from a selfish perspective! lol!!
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk25L.png

[cajungal]

18z GFS has a ton of cold air to the north. Bulldozer.

But it’s dry for now. Arrghhhh!!!

You spoke too soon, because look at 10-12 days from now:

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk25L.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk25L.png

Still would be way too far north for us in SE Louisiana

[Stratton23]

overunning events usually are more of a ice/ sleet threat compared to snow, so just a bit colder on that GFS and youre talking a multi day ice storm for the deep south, that would be brutal

[Wthrfan]

Nice to have an actual winter day in OKC...high around 40, lows into the mid-upper teens tonight.