Texas Winter 2025-2026

[bubba hotep]

The 06z Euro isn't a bad look at the end of the run.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 12 up here.

[orangeblood]

And the GFS brings it all together

[hurricane2025]

Ice storm = worse than hurricane don’t want that

[bubba hotep]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1768737600/1769277600-GOyZkLncS9k.png

Nearly perfect timing with the rotations of the TPV lobes across Canada and the Northern US. Allows just enough of a relaxation to get our storm really cranking.

ETA: This is pretty good agreement b/w the 06z Euro and the 12z GFS, and we are inside of a week of the potential event.

[wxman22]

Wow both the GFS and CMC are showing a major winter storm within 150 hours.

[Gotwood]

Ice storm = worse than hurricane don’t want that

We haven’t had a winter I’m desperate so I’ll take some ice.

[orangeblood]

Ice storm = worse than hurricane don’t want that

Yes, major statewide issues

[bubba hotep]

Wow both the GFS and CMC are showing a major winter storm within 150 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/YThtsGNd/gfs-mvslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/jP3z47F8/gemf-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-26.png

The CMC shows two systems moving through with cold air in place.

[Stratton23]

you get anything like what the GFS/ CMC show and it’s definitely going to be way colder than what the models show, with that kind of ice/ sleet on the ground, you are looking at probably 48-72 below freezing all day

[orangeblood]

Wow both the GFS and CMC are showing a major winter storm within 150 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/YThtsGNd/gfs-mvslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/jP3z47F8/gemf-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-26.png

The CMC shows two systems moving through with cold air in place.

Yep, big trend towards the phasing solution with cold air damming straight down into Texas

[rwfromkansas]

Geez I got down to 18 here in the north Fort Worth/Saginaw area. That’s some dry air. Impressive.

Was below freezing before midnight so a very needed hard freeze.

[wxman22]

Even the UKMET is onboard. It shows two waves like the CMC.

[txtwister78]

GFS continues to be our most consistent model with the ICON (colder), CMC on board and more importantly Euro playing catch up. Nonetheless you're now entering the range of models starting to come together on a cold/active setup across Texas.

Still some details to be worked out obviously but a colder solution would likely bring the heaviest axis of whatever precip falls further south and potentially longer duration. Still a ton to watch

[Harp.1]

Hey fellas! Don’t forget your buddy over here in south Louisiana! lol!! We have needs too! Ha ha ha!!!

[Iceresistance]

YIKES
(black outlines means screenshotted)

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkSYO.png

[Ntxw]

Getting the MJO correct is important. Euro has been too fast with it.

Taking the GFS will likely be better than the Euro in the days ahead (in this setup) due to the fact that it is handling the MJO much better. The Euro suite has been trying to shift into phase 8 which has been difficult the past couple of years due to the very warm waters stuck over the West Pacific so I think an extended stay in phase 7 is much more likely in accordance to recent climatology.

[rwfromkansas]

Well this is getting exciting.

I hope I starts Saturday so I am not stuck at a UIL school event with sleet falling (seen this before and I believe DFW would have more sleet than freezing rain).

Needs to be early enough to cancel.

[txtwister78]

Yup pointed to this also a wk ago regarding the MJO. Euro has wanted to race through 7 and GFS has gradually slowed progression in response to WPAC influence as you noted.

[bubba hotep]

UK (counts sleet & freezing rain as snow) also shows widespread and impactful winter storm.