Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Yeah, this week is a good time to work on covering any exposed pipes and making sure you have all the necessary supplies in place just in case, hoping for more sleet/ snow on models, because thats a lot of ice, and that would cause widespread power outages, not to mention the grid, and we certainly dont want issues with that

[Tireman4]

12Z EC has over 1.5 inches of ice (sleet/freezing rain) across the D-FW area east through northern LA next Sat/Sun. Snow stays north of the area. That would be fun. Highs in the mid-20s next weekend up in D-FW. Sound like fun? Give me 100 degrees any day over that kind of mess.

For Houston, a light freeze Sunday (like this morning) and upper 20s next Monday. Just rain across SE TX, which is a good thing. I want the 70s that it promised me on the 00Z run back...

Sir, maybe you might want to take the client up on that trip to the Caribbean?

[HockeyTx82]

STORM2K WEATHER BOARD

INTERMEDIATE PRODUCT – FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY

WXMAN57 PRE‑ESCAPE POLAR SITUATION STATEMENT
ISSUED: As models begin the dangerous act of agreeing
VALID FOR: The Great State of Texas and all who fear frozen precipitation

---

...MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM...

...WXMAN57 HAS MOVED FROM “ESCAPING” TO “EYEING THE EXIT DOOR”...

Recent model runs have begun converging on the idea of a winter storm impacting Texas next weekend, accompanied by a notable drop in temperatures. While details remain fuzzy, the pattern has shifted enough to justify elevating the situation from “mild amusement” to “mildly concerned head‑tilt.”

Confidence in something happening is rising.
Confidence in exactly what is happening remains… Storm2k‑ish.

---

Discussion

Model Behavior
Guidance is showing:

- A growing cluster of solutions supporting wintry mischief somewhere in Texas
- Increasing agreement on colder air arriving on schedule, for once
- Enough ensemble support to make Wxman57 mutter “oh great, here we go”

Run‑to‑run consistency is improving, but not enough for a full Watch.
Ensemble spread is shrinking, but not enough for Wxman57 to unpack his winter coat.

Wxman57 Position
Given the evolving situation, Wxman57 is now:

- Acknowledging that a winter storm is becoming increasingly plausible
- Not yet issuing a Polar Watch, but no longer escaping at full speed
- Preparing the jet, but leaving the engines off… for now
- Monitoring for any 06z foolishness that would invalidate all of this

---

What This Means for Storm2k Posters

Do:
- Begin light preparations for potential winter weather
- Watch for continued model convergence
- Expect thread activity to increase 300%
- Keep an eye on Wxman57’s location for signs of imminent southbound flight

Do Not:
- Declare “historic storm incoming” based on one deterministic run
- Panic‑buy milk unless you were already low
- Post every single snow map without context
- Assume sleet, snow, freezing rain, or cold rain is “locked in”

---

Bottom Line

A winter storm may impact Texas next weekend.
Cold air likely arrives.
Details remain uncertain, but the trend is strong enough to warrant this intermediate product.

Wxman57 will upgrade to a full Escaping the Polar Watch if model agreement continues, or downgrade back to Nothingburger Advisory if the 06z GFS does what it usually does.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED
…when confidence increases, decreases, or Wxman57 reaches the airport.

[orangeblood]

Not only are all the globals are on board with a major southern plains winter storm but their Ensembles back them on…remarkable consensus and inside the 6 days window

12Z Euro Ens Mean precip showing a big flip as well

[DukeMu]

With a 1051 arctic HP centered over the Midwest Friday you can bet on a colder deeper into Texas outcome than what Euro currently has now. Obviously that will impact precip type further south.

Textbook winter storm event with an active southern jet.

Which would put SE TX in play potentially for freezing rain/sleet

Potentially however these setups when it comes to shallower arctic airmaases are always harder to game when it comes to the SE Texas region especially Houston metro points east into western Louisiana.

As I've mentioned previously during these outbreaks, cold air typically dams up against the Quachita moutain range in Arkansas and delays it south so as is the case with these events you often get arctic air delivered faster into the HC and SC TX region before it bleeds into SE TX as a result of that topography.

There are other factors however that can remove some of that (upper level assistance for example) but more times than not that's a legitimate impediment for ice along the SE coastal regions in particular.

The Ouachita shadow effect is pretty weak. The Ouachitas in eastern Oklahoma are maybe 2000 feet in altitude (the base is close to 1000 feet, up to 2500 feet in altitude in Ark...but cold air easily spills through passes and over the weathered down, old mountains. There may be a slight phase delay, but Shreveport is colder than Dallas. Also, air on the other side would be turbulent, lowering pressure and attracting more cold air. Air acts as a fluid, just like water. The effects are short-lived and minimal.

Also, the vector of arctic air spilling down east of the Rockies is from the NNW, avoiding the Oachitas which are lower in altitude than land west of OKC.

The GoM has by far the greatest modifying effect on cold, shallow air.

[txtwister78]

Which would put SE TX in play potentially for freezing rain/sleet

Potentially however these setups when it comes to shallower arctic airmaases are always harder to game when it comes to the SE Texas region especially Houston metro points east into western Louisiana.

As I've mentioned previously during these outbreaks, cold air typically dams up against the Quachita moutain range in Arkansas and delays it south so as is the case with these events you often get arctic air delivered faster into the HC and SC TX region before it bleeds into SE TX as a result of that topography.

There are other factors however that can remove some of that (upper level assistance for example) but more times than not that's a legitimate impediment for ice along the SE coastal regions in particular.

The Ouachita shadow effect is pretty weak. The Ouachitas in eastern Oklahoma are maybe 2000 feet in altitude (the base is close to 1000 feet, up to 2500 feet in altitude in Ark...but cold air easily spills through passes and over the weathered down, old mountains. There may be a slight phase delay, but Shreveport is colder than Dallas. Also, air on the other side would be turbulent, lowering pressure and attracting more cold air. Air acts as a fluid, just like water. The effects are short-lived and minimal.

Also, the vector of arctic air spilling down east of the Rockies is from the NNW, avoiding the Oachitas which are lower in altitude than land west of OKC.

The GoM has by far the greatest modifying effect on cold, shallow air.

Disagree in terms of their effect. That "shadow effect" definitely impacts how fast arctic cold gets into those areas because well I've seen it occur during multiple events and secondly it makes sense via the topography due to the shallow nature of the cold.

Modifying the cold is different than timing and so yes of course the gulf plays a role with that naturally but in terms of timing/precip which this far south is always the critical question when it comes to forecasting winter precip "delayed" can mean all the difference from frozen points west where that impediment doesn't factor in to liquid where it does as a result of that shadow effect.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The shadow effect is very real. I was heartbroken a few times in my childhood and teen years from the shadow effect.

Thanksgiving 1993 was a good example. Dallas got pounded by sleet. Longview got a cold rain until the very end then a brief burst of sleet. The mountains “saved” Longview from a major event.

[hurricane2025]

I will say this you don’t want an ice storm, also still don’t buy the models, if it was wed or Thursday then maybe

[Kirby68]

Which would put SE TX in play potentially for freezing rain/sleet

Potentially however these setups when it comes to shallower arctic airmaases are always harder to game when it comes to the SE Texas region especially Houston metro points east into western Louisiana.

As I've mentioned previously during these outbreaks, cold air typically dams up against the Quachita moutain range in Arkansas and delays it south so as is the case with these events you often get arctic air delivered faster into the HC and SC TX region before it bleeds into SE TX as a result of that topography.

There are other factors however that can remove some of that (upper level assistance for example) but more times than not that's a legitimate impediment for ice along the SE coastal regions in particular.

The Ouachita shadow effect is pretty weak. The Ouachitas in eastern Oklahoma are maybe 2000 feet in altitude (the base is close to 1000 feet, up to 2500 feet in altitude in Ark...but cold air easily spills through passes and over the weathered down, old mountains. There may be a slight phase delay, but Shreveport is colder than Dallas. Also, air on the other side would be turbulent, lowering pressure and attracting more cold air. Air acts as a fluid, just like water. The effects are short-lived and minimal.

Also, the vector of arctic air spilling down east of the Rockies is from the NNW, avoiding the Oachitas which are lower in altitude than land west of OKC.

The GoM has by far the greatest modifying effect on cold, shallow air.

Agree 100%. The only time I’ve seen the “hills” in OK or Ark have any effect is when you have the center of cold moving out of Canada into the NE and it tries to backdoor a front into Texas. That puts the hills directly between NE Texas and the cold air. Slows it down a little. Big cold moving straight south into Texas from Montana area, they have no effect at all.

[wxman22]

Yeah, as a native Houstonian I've also seen the Ouachita Mountains affect SE and East Texas several times during winter storm setups. The cold air damning effect is real when you're dealing with a shallow air mass.The western 1/3rd of SE Texas is not affected as much from the shadow effect. But the eastern 2/3rds of the area can sometimes be greatly affected by it.

[orangeblood]

The shadow effect is definitely at play with the center of Arctic sitting over the mid west . You can see it on the global temp depictions across NE Texas when heaviest precip is moving thru. You don’t see it as much when the HP is parked across Wyoming/Colorado

[Ntxw]

850mph temps on the guidance is also far to the north (deeper cold) so it is indeed a shallower air mass, at least as it looks like right now. The system(s) is also not a big wound up deep ULL, overrunning as others have stated so there is definitely an ice storm in there. Again it could change though, I don't expect the upper feature to be set in stone anytime soon.

A full phase into Big Bend area, with perfect timing would also yield a major snow storm (the dream)

[Brent]

I don't think I've ever seen a 12z cycle like today, where basically all the major models trended toward agreement on a storm. Usually, it takes a while for them all to fall in line.

I just pulled up the EPS and had to make sure it was the right city wowsers

Insane trends in the last couple days

Now I'm seeing why the NWS here put up a graphic already... They probably saw it coming

[dhweather]

STORM2K WEATHER BOARD

- Expect thread activity to increase 300%

Truer words have never been spoken.

[Cpv17]

I don't think I've ever seen a 12z cycle like today, where basically all the major models trended toward agreement on a storm. Usually, it takes a while for them all to fall in line.

I just pulled up the EPS and had to make sure it was the right city wowsers

Insane trends in the last couple days

Now I'm seeing why the NWS here put up a graphic already... They probably saw it coming

I was just scrolling through X and even saw people from the EC talking about severe cold in Texas. Rarely do they ever say anything about us.

[Iceresistance]

I don't like it either

 https://twitter.com/i/status/2012956022067908854

[wxman22]

I don't think I've ever seen a 12z cycle like today, where basically all the major models trended toward agreement on a storm. Usually, it takes a while for them all to fall in line.

I just pulled up the EPS and had to make sure it was the right city wowsers

Insane trends in the last couple days

Now I'm seeing why the NWS here put up a graphic already... They probably saw it coming

Yep, almost all of the 50 EPS ensemble members show snow here now next weekend. Big flip from the previous runs.

[Iceresistance]

Okay wow Euro, all that snow is from one storm, I've never seen the Euro this aggressive


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkbz5.png

[snownado]

Okay wow Euro, all that snow is from one storm, I've never seen the Euro this aggressive

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkbz5.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkbz5.png

How much of that is sleet contaminated?

[Brent]

Okay wow Euro, all that snow is from one storm, I've never seen the Euro this aggressive

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkbz5.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkbz5.png

Oh it's official I'm framing that run