SPAC: INVEST 94P

[Subtrop]

94P INVEST 260110 1200 13.4S 161.7E SHEM 15 1006

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.2S
160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, COMPLETELY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPARSE CONVECTION
DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. A 121031Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
PATCH OF 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON 94P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS
SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE
CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S 157.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES
RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), MINIMAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD 28-33 KTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1S 158.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 159.3E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. A 191048Z METOP-C ASCAT REVEALS 18-23 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF 94P. IN ADDITION, A LARGE SWATH OF WINDS UP TO
25 KTS ARE OBSERVED 112 NM AND DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
ONGOING SUPPORT FOR 94P TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KTS IN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

[Ulf]

https://i.imgur.com/RWx8gvq.png

Wrong thread?
Tropical Low 16U is Invest 91S while Invest 94P became extratropical two days ago while moving southwest toward New Zealand before having a chance to get named.

[cycloneye]

OK, thanks. Is there now.