Texas Winter 2025-2026

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5481 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 27, 2026 10:44 am

Will any sites show it? I don’t want to have to set up my own model effectively though it might be a fun summer project. Surely it costs $$.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5482 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 27, 2026 10:47 am

So any thoughts on DFW school tomorrow? Expected more melt on the roads than we saw but we probably will hit 40 today.

I’m betting a delay at least.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5483 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 27, 2026 10:51 am

rwfromkansas wrote:So any thoughts on DFW school tomorrow? Expected more melt on the roads than we saw but we probably will hit 40 today.

I’m betting a delay at least.

That's the tricky part. My daughter's school doesn't do half days. Wednesday morning will be dangerous but Wednesday afternoon should be fine. I'm ready for things to get back to normal now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5484 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 27, 2026 11:04 am

gpsnowman wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:So any thoughts on DFW school tomorrow? Expected more melt on the roads than we saw but we probably will hit 40 today.

I’m betting a delay at least.

That's the tricky part. My daughter's school doesn't do half days. Wednesday morning will be dangerous but Wednesday afternoon should be fine. I'm ready for things to get back to normal now.


Some clouds today will prevent total decimation of the ice. The ice and sleet is actually quite resilient even if it is 40. Some melting for sure but maybe not enough to pass the all clear 'eyeball test' look out your window. Freezing fog tomorrow morning will be an issue...my guess another day of closure. It needs to be safe for the buses to run, and the kids to get to the bus stop this is the question to ask and you can probably predict it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5485 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 27, 2026 11:45 am

gpsnowman wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:So any thoughts on DFW school tomorrow? Expected more melt on the roads than we saw but we probably will hit 40 today.

I’m betting a delay at least.

That's the tricky part. My daughter's school doesn't do half days. Wednesday morning will be dangerous but Wednesday afternoon should be fine. I'm ready for things to get back to normal now.


Yeah I am in another yearbook deadline so glad it won’t close all week but tomorrow may be iffy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5486 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 27, 2026 11:52 am

Not a good setup for DFW and majority of North Texas in the morning....frz fog with almost zero visibility. I doubt schools will open back up

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5487 Postby Harp.1 » Tue Jan 27, 2026 12:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:Guidance is strengthening the -AO starting around the week of the 10th. This is a very strong signal, with ridging -WPO and -EPO, the -AO would block a lot of cold air models aren't seeing yet (beyond range). Honestly I haven't been this confident about such a pattern in recent years. Would be shocked if it did not produce cold and/or snow.

I hope you are correct in your assessment. The latest gfs is uneventful. Maybe it’s too early.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5488 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 27, 2026 12:21 pm

Harp.1 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Guidance is strengthening the -AO starting around the week of the 10th. This is a very strong signal, with ridging -WPO and -EPO, the -AO would block a lot of cold air models aren't seeing yet (beyond range). Honestly I haven't been this confident about such a pattern in recent years. Would be shocked if it did not produce cold and/or snow.

I hope you are correct in your assessment. The latest gfs is uneventful. Maybe it’s too early.


Ensembles my friend. Outside of the cold shot this weekend I'm not expecting much during Aleutian low period through the first week of Feb. Source region mild before it shifts.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5489 Postby Harp.1 » Tue Jan 27, 2026 12:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Harp.1 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Guidance is strengthening the -AO starting around the week of the 10th. This is a very strong signal, with ridging -WPO and -EPO, the -AO would block a lot of cold air models aren't seeing yet (beyond range). Honestly I haven't been this confident about such a pattern in recent years. Would be shocked if it did not produce cold and/or snow.

I hope you are correct in your assessment. The latest gfs is uneventful. Maybe it’s too early.


Ensembles my friend. Outside of the cold shot this weekend I'm not expecting much during Aleutian low period through the first week of Feb. Source region mild before it shifts.

Thank you, sir. Keep us posted please!
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5490 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:02 pm

Ntxw Yeah outside of the first few days of february being mild ( and even thats looking questionable now with ensembles sniffing out another cold front ) the rest of the month looks cold, with the SPV weakening and prolonging our - AO into early march which could keep things below normal temperatures wise , early february might be the only “warm” part of the month lol, will be interesting to watch week 2 when the effects of the PV split will be felt potentially
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5491 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:19 pm

I just realized my sloped driveway is still completely covered. Street barely looks better than yesterday.

And clouds coming in…

Betting school will cancel.

I really thought we would be good the other day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5492 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:22 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:I just realized my sloped driveway is still completely covered. Street barely looks better than yesterday.

And clouds coming in…

Betting school will cancel.

I really thought we would be good the other day.


Cloud cover really seems to be slowing the melting today. Roads are still 100% ice covered in my neighborhood. Neighbor tried to head out but returned to the house before ever making it out of the neighborhood.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5493 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:24 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:I just realized my sloped driveway is still completely covered. Street barely looks better than yesterday.

And clouds coming in…

Betting school will cancel.

I really thought we would be good the other day.

Yep. Just walked around the house and not much melting at all. Some peeks of sun but mostly cloudy. Didn't even hear water dripping from the roof. Agree, no school tomorrow. Hopefully most of it melts Wednesday afternoon but I have a feeling some of it will remain for days considering the cold returns on Friday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5494 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:26 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I just realized my sloped driveway is still completely covered. Street barely looks better than yesterday.

And clouds coming in…

Betting school will cancel.

I really thought we would be good the other day.

Yep. Just walked around the house and not much melting at all. Some peeks of sun but mostly cloudy. Didn't even hear water dripping from the roof. Agree, no school tomorrow. Hopefully most of it melts Wednesday afternoon but I have a feeling some of it will remain for days considering the cold returns on Friday.


Interesting part is, like back in 2013, the more people attempt to drive in it, breaks it up into clumps harder to melt, refreeze, repeat. Cobblestones.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5495 Postby Quixotic » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:30 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I just realized my sloped driveway is still completely covered. Street barely looks better than yesterday.

And clouds coming in…

Betting school will cancel.

I really thought we would be good the other day.




Cloud cover really seems to be slowing the melting today. Roads are still 100% ice covered in my neighborhood. Neighbor tried to head out but returned to the house before ever making it out of the neighborhood.


So I went out yesterday afternoon and it wasn’t too bad. 20 mph.
Last night it was more slippery and rock solid. This morning, above 32 and some melt but anything over 10 mph was impossible. Started to slide a few times on a 2 mile trip but was able to control it eventually. I can’t have another day of being stuck in here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5496 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:42 pm

Man i am really really loving the look of the ensembles today in february
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5497 Postby Harp.1 » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:48 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Man i am really really loving the look of the ensembles today in february

Can you elaborate?
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5498 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:52 pm

I just got above freezing, but I heard about freezing fog that is coming
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5499 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:57 pm

Harp.1 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Man i am really really loving the look of the ensembles today in february

Can you elaborate?


Basically a short break from winter next week but signs are pointing to another period of cold returning after the 8th-9th timeframe and with ridging out west (+PNA) looking like it will retract around that time and with other favorable teleconnections in play like EPO and AO, things (pattern) could get active again across the southern plains as cold returns.

That's about as elaborate as you can be this far out.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5500 Postby Harp.1 » Tue Jan 27, 2026 1:59 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Harp.1 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Man i am really really loving the look of the ensembles today in february

Can you elaborate?


Basically a short break from winter next week but signs are pointing to another period of cold returning after the 8th-9th timeframe and with ridging out west looking like it will retract around that time and with other favorable teleconnections in play like EPO and AO, things (pattern) could get active again across the southern plains as cold returns.

That's about as elaborate as you can be this far out.

Thank you, sir
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