2026 ENSO Updates

[DorkyMcDorkface]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

On another note, Latest hovmollers from the GFS indicate strong trade bursts til the end of the month...

GEFS a little quicker to propagate the easterlies away from the dateline than the EPS, although they aren't as potent on the latter. Could slow down short-term progression somewhat, I guess this is kind of like La Niña's last stand. Probably not gonna matter much in the long-term, but we'll see.



Fwiw here's the AI GFS and AIFS ensemble mean, basically with the same idea for each respective suite:

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2022320129258692752

[Yellow Evan]

Question to the members. Is there a possible scenario depending on how strong it gets that the upcoming El Niño will be long in duration around 2 to 3 years? 26-27-28?

Need this El Niño to not be strong enough that it erodes any +PMM and the ITCZ doesn’t shift too far south, which would strengthen equatorial trades about a year from now, which would terminate the event, in order for a multi-year El Niño to be possible.

[cycloneye]

Folks, look what is already showing up. Boom!

[cycloneye]

Good message from Dr Levi Cowan.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/2022485178338423096



@TropicalTidbits
Looks like a flip from La Niña to El Niño is on the way this upcoming hurricane season. The equatorial Pacific thermocline has deepened over the last 2 months as upper ocean heat anomalies discharge eastward, which should eventually reverse the SST anomaly at the surface in the coming months.

El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity through changes in average wind shear and convective instability. In recent years, the Atlantic has shown the potential to offset these negative impacts if its own water is warm enough to distort the base state (see 2023). For now, seasonal models don't foresee that this year, with an intense dipole in precipitation anomalies evident in the current NMME forecast for peak hurricane season, indicating a dominant El Niño pattern. A super active hurricane season would be unlikely if this forecast verifies, but that also wouldn't guarantee a small number of storms that strike land.

As always, it's best to be prepared just in case every single hurricane season if you live in an area prone to hurricanes. This can include areas well inland, as we have unfortunately seen in the southeastern U.S. in recent years.

[cycloneye]

The MJO is at the Indian Ocean.

[Kingarabian]

Until the models resolve the MJO properly we won't know what type of WPAC WWB we'll get.

[cycloneye]

Until the models resolve the MJO properly we won't know what type of WPAC WWB we'll get.

When we will know the models are right about the MJO?

[cycloneye]

Good thread from Dr Ben Noll.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2022742655160258927

[cycloneye]

The subsurface is on fire.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2023407352217588161

[cycloneye]

Niño 1+2 up to +1.0C.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/2023420139262382297

[cycloneye]

If the expected MJO in march doesn't cooperate, then the strong el niño status may not be in the cards? I guess time will tell.

[cycloneye]

Good thread here.

 https://x.com/peacockreports/status/2023772258733375664



 https://x.com/peacockreports/status/2023776647430971808

[vbhoutex]

Thanks Luis! Definitely an interestinng read which also helped me understand how the forming of la Nina and el nino happens.

[cycloneye]

About PMM and SPMM.

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/2023785168297767131

[cycloneye]

The CPC weekly update of 2/17/26.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

[Kingarabian]

If the expected MJO in march doesn't cooperate, then the strong el niño status may not be in the cards? I guess time will tell.

I think currently, warm ENSO has the greatest odds this summer. El Nino will be favored once we see two spring WWBs.

[Yellow Evan]

If the expected MJO in march doesn't cooperate, then the strong el niño status may not be in the cards? I guess time will tell.

Probably opens the door for a 2014 type situation where a stronger El Niño is potentially delayed onto the next year but there’s still weaker event also accompanied by a +PMM.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

If the expected MJO in march doesn't cooperate, then the strong el niño status may not be in the cards? I guess time will tell.

Probably opens the door for a 2014 type situation where a stronger El Niño is potentially delayed onto the next year but there’s still weaker event also accompanied by a +PMM.

I guess a fail mode like that is still on the table but the subsurface warmth is just so expansive at the moment, it really won't take much of a WWB to get things going.