2026 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Last season this basin was very active with 18/10/3 and it occured without having El Niño. The 2026 season will have positive ENSO, but the unknown is how strong El Niño may be by the summer and fall. It looks like the season will have plenty of activity regardless if ENSO is between warm Neutral and El Niño. Below is the list of names and there are some familiar and well remembered.

Amanda
Boris
Cristina
Douglas
Elida
Fausto
Genevieve
Hernan
Iselle
Julio
Karina
Lowell
Marie
Norbert
Odalys
Polo
Rachel
Simon
Trudy
Vance
Winnie
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

[Yellow Evan]

There have been some changes in the Pacific SST configuration. We’ve seen some erosion in the -ENSO base state since the NHEM monsoon system shut down, with MJO largely avoiding the Indian Ocean and we’ve also seen the WPAC warm pool expand eastward. The subtropics and extratropics have also taken on a SST configuration of an EOF2 Victoria Mode typically seen in the winter before El Niño onset, with a +PMM becoming quite distinct in recent weeks. This does remind me a bit of the North Pacific evolution during 2013-14 winter given this and the incoming mid latitude pattern for January but it’s hard to say anything definitive at this stage other than +ENSO of some flavor is likely and in turn at least an average Pacific tropics.

[cycloneye]

My big ones for this basin are 5 as +ENSO will be present. Boris, Douglas, Lowell, Marie and Rachel.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like there's a very good chance of a very active, if not hyperactive, EPAC. NS-wise, expecting a count in the 20s, and MH-wise, expecting at least 7, with at least one Category 5 storm.

I also definitely think that we'll see at least a few real scares to Mexico, Hawaii, and the Southwestern US. Remains to be seen to what degree and in what form, but I'm really hoping if it's an active year that all the storms harmlessly head on out to sea.

[Astromanía]

The EPAC basin has consistently impacted Mexico with major hurricanes this decade. A strong El Niño increases the likelihood of multiple Category 3+ hurricane landfalls, as seen during the 2023 season. Therefore, close monitoring is needed at the beginning and especially toward the end of the season for potential direct impacts. Particular attention should be given to Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Guerrero, Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima, as these states are typically the most affected. Potential impacts to Hawaii should also be monitored, as is commonly observed during El Niño years.

[Yellow Evan]

2023 was a different flavor of ENSO, with its anomalies focused in the east and triggered by a coastal Nino event and one much more associated with impacts in Mexico and the southwestern United States. I don’t think a repeat of such event is in order at this time.

[Kingarabian]

Looking like a big EPAC season if this WWB materializes

[Yellow Evan]

Within the context of discussing ENSO elsewhere, about a week ago, I complied these years as analogs for the Pacific SST configuration, which by extension can be applied to both the EPAC and WPAC season. These years are subjecr to and probably will change some as we draw closer:

1957
1965
1968
1982
1997
2002
2006
2009
2014
2018

Based primarily on comparisons of the Pacific SST configuration of the previous month, (when applicable) the previous few months trade wind pattern and sub-surface configuration at the same time as now, the recent/ongoing establishment of +VM and +PMM, expected transition from weak -ENSO to +ENSO, absence of a strong -PDO. Subject to change - I think these may be a little too bullish in the +PDO/strong +ENSO direction given the behavior of PDO since 2020 and we’re not near the typical return period of a strong +ENSO event.

Average ACE unofficially of all satellite era years of the above set is 177 ACE with 1.7 Category 5s and 7.14 major hurricanes and a 29% chance of an 155+ knot system.

[cycloneye]

Will this surface trough be the first TC in this basin of 2026? Some models modestly form it. Would not be surprised if NHC issues a STWO if the trends of some models continue.

[Astromanía]

Regardless of what it comes from, it’s a signal that conditions may become favorable soon, and high activity could continue throughout the year. At this point, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a hyperactive season by the end of the year, much more active than 2023, but it’s still too early to say. I wonder what the SMN will come up with in their predictions for this year, as they handled last year well.

[cycloneye]

If the Euro ENSO outlook is right, the upcomming season will be hyperactive.

[Yellow Evan]

If the Euro ENSO outlook is right, the upcomming season will be hyperactive.

Not necessarily. 2002 and 2009 ended up with a near average ACE total despite moderate to strong +ENSO events because the Atlantic and rest of Pacific tropics did not fully cooperate. Depending on if the current +PMM persist, I can see a similar outcome.

[Yellow Evan]

Analog average for the EPAC: 166 ACE (excluding 1957 and 1963, uses unofficial values)
Tentative ACE forecast: 165 ACE

There is some divergence among stronger El Niño years in the historical dataset. Years like 2002 and 2009 (not currently an analog) only yielded moderate activity and were devoid of a significant +PMM. Years like 1982 had a significant +PMM and +PDO that passed 200 ACE. Furthermore, February 2026 EPAC SSTs are 5th highest on record and exceeds February 2014 and February 1957 by ~.2C but also trails 2015 and 2018 by ~.2C. It is worth noting that after detrending for tropical warmth, February 2026 still narrowly runs ahead of February 2014 but is behind February 1957 by ~.15C . The modeled trade pattern for March would support further warming, raising the possibility that the gap between 2026 and 1957 narrows. Also worth noting that both 1957 and 2014 ushered in heightened periods of activity.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The look of the PMM early on is definitely a plus despite the iffy/muddled PDO. I still do not consider myself too well versed in EPAC climo compared to the NATL but given said PDO isn't definitively cool with the horseshoe off NA compared to most recent years (including 2023), I'm wondering if the +PMM could end up negating any of its potentially adverse effects in that regard if it can persist into the season.

[Ntxw]

The look of the PMM early on is definitely a plus despite the iffy/muddled PDO. I still do not consider myself too well versed in EPAC climo compared to the NATL but given said PDO isn't definitively cool with the horseshoe off NA compared to most recent years (including 2023), I'm wondering if the +PMM could end up negating any of its potentially adverse effects in that regard if it can persist into the season.
https://i.imgur.com/kqWCPXG.png

Much like the NATL, unusual warmth say, south of 20-30N MDR is best fuel for systems. Works much the same in the EPAC. PDO has long term effects, but that is ever changing now because ocean gradients are shifting northward.

[cycloneye]

If the El Niño expected turns out more east based, then the TC activity in this basin should be plenty and possibly hyperactive.