Texas Spring 2026

[rwfromkansas]

I am still on the eastern edge of the elevated risk in Tarrant. I don't want massive hail after replacing the roof last year anyway, but I do enjoy severe storms, just not the worst of them.

[Gotwood]

Doesn’t feel like an enhanced risk type of day out. Guess we will see if clouds lift.

[TomballEd]

Doesn’t feel like an enhanced risk type of day out. Guess we will see if clouds lift.

HRRR at 8 pm had about 1800 j/Kg MLCAPE and a 40 knot LLJ from from the S with a 65 knot SSW winds at 500 mb on 15Z run, enhanced risk seems possible. 16Z run coming in looks even better on simulated radar. 16Z run STP

[Ntxw]

Here is a snippet of the risks from SPC. People these days see enhanced risk and assume the worst but categorically if decent coverage in severe thunderstorms (hail, wind etc) all qualify. In fact I would argue the risks are more lean towards the confidence of coverage. It doesn't automatically mean supercells and tornadoes. We have to read the discussion for the tornado etc level risks.



That said HRRR has a pretty widespread wall coverage/linear of storms, coverage quantifies. Maybe a few embedded strong/tor warned storms especially when they initiate before congealing.

[Fifty Rock]

Doesn’t feel like an enhanced risk type of day out. Guess we will see if clouds lift.

It's clear and 83* right now near Albany in West Texas only about 75 miles West of you.

[wxman22]

Doesn’t feel like an enhanced risk type of day out. Guess we will see if clouds lift.

It's clear and 83* right now near Albany in West Texas only about 75 miles West of you.

Yep it’s sunny here also in Wichita Falls.

[wxman22]

The latest HRRR

[rwfromkansas]

The clouds are slowly, slowly mixing east, but may still be over DFW for much of the day, but close enough to clearing to still pack a punch likely.

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/i/status/2031436514429714628

[rwfromkansas]

A strong cap, color me shocked! Lol.

[txtwister78]

Tornado Watch likely later this afternoon for portions of West Central TX down into the Hill Country/Southern Edwards Plateau region per SPC

[Fifty Rock]

 https://x.com/i/status/2031436514429714628

Not sure why they would put that out there. Seems like a mess up on someone's part.

[Fifty Rock]

 https://x.com/i/status/2031436514429714628

Not sure why they would put that out there. Seems like a mess up on someone's part.

[Gotwood]

Tornado Watch likely later this afternoon for portions of West Central TX down into the Hill Country/Southern Edwards Plateau region per SPC

This was always the area to watch.

[rwfromkansas]

I don't think the cap really changes the calculus for later, just not many initial discrete storms, right?

[CaptinCrunch]

Meteorological winter -- December to February -- was unseasonably warm across much of the contiguous U.S., ranking as the second-warmest winter on record since 1895, behind the 2023-24 season, according to a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

While the Northeast faced persistent blasts of bitter cold and snow, exceptional winter warmth in the West nearly pushed the nation to a new all-time high for the season.

Nine states finished off with their warmest winter on record: Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Texas, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming. Dozens of cities in the West and Plains saw a top 5 warmest winter with cities such as Albuquerque, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Salt Lake City seeing their all-time warmest.

Dallas, Texas, recorded 16 days with high temperatures of at least 80°F, the highest seasonal total on record.
For much of the country, winter was not only exceptionally warm, but exceptionally dry, ranking as the driest winter in 45 years across the Lower 48. Much of the western United States entered the season already grappling with drought, and persistent warmth fueled the worst snow drought in decades across parts of the Rockies as more precipitation fell as rain instead of snow.

Widespread, persistent drier-than-average conditions also impacted parts of the Heartland and Southeast, bringing drought expansion and intensification during the winter months. Multiple states, including Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Nebraska, experienced one of their driest winters on record.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report released on March 5, more than half of the contiguous U.S. is experiencing drought conditions, an increase of about 10% from the beginning of February.

2025 was Earth's 3rd-warmest year as climate impacts intensify. Florida is enduring its worst drought in 25 years, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System, with a heightened risk of wildfires this spring as conditions worsen across the state. All of Florida is currently experiencing some level of drought, with more than 70% of the state facing an extreme drought level 3 of 4, U.S. Drought Monitor data shows.

[wxman22]

The latest HRRR run It’s been consistently showing some potent storms here fwiw.

[wxman22]

Here we go.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 31
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
West-Central Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will quickly develop this
afternoon and evening while posing a threat for very large to
possibly giant hail initially (up to 3-4 inches in diameter). The
threat for a few tornadoes will increase this evening with any
persistent supercells, and a strong tornado appears possible. An
increasing threat for severe/damaging winds up to 70-80 mph should
also occur as thunderstorms eventually grow upscale into one or more
bowing clusters.

[HockeyTx82]

It looks like DFW's back in the enhanced again......

[TomballEd]

It looks like DFW's back in the enhanced again......

FTW is, DAL is not.