SPAC: MAILA - Tropical Cyclone

[Subtrop]

90P INVEST 260331 1200 9.3S 163.6E SHEM 15 0

[Ethaninfinity]

Was this invest removed? It looks like if this area becomes the stronger system between the two modeled in the spac it could be around for quite a while with a high ceiling.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.2S 157.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM EAST
OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE, INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT WITH QUICK CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Surprised no one has brought up the stall this thing could undergo. Milne Bay Province of PNG and Solomon Islands could be in trouble

[Hurricane2022]

And here we go. JTWC upgraded it to Tropical Storm 30P. Now let's see it this will ger named by BOM or TCWC Moresby (it will be the 1st storm named by this agency since 2007 if this happens!).
And it's very unfortunately going to be a catastrophic event com Papua New-Guinea and Solomon Islands as the models shows this system stalling over those islands for several days while quickly intensifying to a C3-C4 Severe Tropical Cyclone. Pray for them!

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/E2Q6XwV.gif

What the hell

[Hurricane2022]

History is made: we now have Tropical Storm MAILA. It's the first storm to form in the TCWC Port Moresby AOR since Severe Tropical Cyclone Guba in 2007 – Almost 20 years ago.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2040411801330794708

[Hurricane2022]

If HAFS-A verifies, we may see a historic duo of C4 Tropical Cyclones spinning in the South-west Pacific, with Maila and 91P (soon-to-be Vaianu).

[StormWeather]

If HAFS-A verifies, we may see a historic duo of C4 Tropical Cyclones spinning in the South-west Pacific, with Maila and 91P (soon-to-be Vaianu).
https://i.imgur.com/FDcDC2K.png

Forgive me for not knowing, but how would it be historic for there to be two C4 cyclones spinning simultaneously? What the records behind that?

[Hurricane2022]

If HAFS-A verifies, we may see a historic duo of C4 Tropical Cyclones spinning in the South-west Pacific, with Maila and 91P (soon-to-be Vaianu).
https://i.imgur.com/FDcDC2K.png

Forgive me for not knowing, but how would it be historic for there to be two C4 cyclones spinning simultaneously? What the records behind that?

The last time we had simultaneous C4+ cyclones in the SPAC was in 2010, with Ului and Thomas. This situation has some other precedents as there are three or four other instances of this happening, but this is still very rare—and therefore historic.

[cycloneye]

The merry go around.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2040457852133777499

[cycloneye]

Intensity
category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour

Location
within 45 kilometres of 9.1 degrees South, 154.7 degrees East, 580 kilometres west of Honiara and 830 kilometres east of Port Moresby

Movement
west at 7 kilometres per hour

Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, has developed in the Solomon Sea and the environment is generally favourable for further development. Maila is forecast to become a severe tropical cyclone by late Sunday or early Monday. Steering influences are balanced and Maila is expected to be slow moving over the Solomon Sea through until the middle of next week, when it is forecast to begin moving southwest. This system is not expected to directly impact the Queensland coast before the middle of next week.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2040519258841505886


 https://x.com/i/status/2040504538235539909

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2040507453792542851

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is intensifying in the Solomon Sea and the environment is generally favorable for further development. Maila is forecast to become a severe tropical cyclone by later tonight or early Monday morning. Steering influences are balanced and Maila is expected to be slow moving over the Solomon Sea through until the middle of the week, when it is forecast to begin moving southwest. This system is not expected to directly impact the Queensland coast before the middle of the week.

[TomballEd]

Don't see an OHC product but I see very warm water that is pretty deep. I wondered because of the slow motion.




I don't know if is me, Imgur or S2K but I have to refresh to see images

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2040631916354007340