SPAC: MAILA - Tropical Cyclone

[sasha_B]

6z GFS takes Maila to 921 hPa with surface winds just over 115 kt at +72h, though as is often the case with lower-resolution model outputs the wind-pressure relationship doesn't quite add up - a 115 kt storm would be unlikely to attain that depth at ～10°S, and a 921 hPa cyclone would likely produce winds closer to 130 kt. Either way, that sort of solution would land Maila among the strongest and most intense storms of the year so far.

Worth noting that the GFS remains the top end of the guidance envelope, though. HAFS shows Maila peaking closer to 100 kt; HWRF scarcely gets above 90 kt; AI-GFS shows steady weakening (???) over the next 96h, and the Euro shows a fairly steady state in the short-term, with serious intensification only beginning once the storm starts to accelerate southwest towards Australia beyond the 96-hour range.

Maila is clearly intensifying right now, though, so I'm not going to lend too much weight to the lower-end model solutions. Fwiw the JTWC doesn't seem to have done so, either - their forecast peak as of 15z is 110 kt at +36 hours.

[sasha_B]

Warm spot / possible eye starting to take shape near Cyclone Maila's center on IR as of 1830z. CI 5.0 per JTWC's 1730z satellite bulletin (no eye pattern; T5.0 for LLC embedded in B). That said, there's still a substantial asymmetry/weakness in the CDO (warm swath in the west and NW quadrants), so it's not clear that this feature will be persistent or stable. 18z fix is a rather conservative 80 kt/970 hPa, but I suppose JTWC has to factor in the objective estimates, which have been stuck below T4.0 for more than 12h despite a clear developing trend. As with Vaianu, ADT does not seem to be handling this cyclone well; they're now more than a full T# lower than subjective estimates for both storms.

12z GFS continues to forecast a peak depth of <930 hPa. Other models remain much less bullish.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BOM_au/status/2040896332282335475