Texas Spring 2026

[txtwister78]

Yeah those climate models were out in front as mentioned and now Euro in alignment but again with this type of El Nino presentation not surprising.

Happy Easter to all.

[TomballEd]

Hooks had 0.37, IAH an inch. I think my house was closer to the IAH number. I mentioned before there would be SETX winners and losers. Low 60s here but breezy and cool.


Looking ahead, besides severe chances end of the week into the weekend and following weekend, GFS and 0Z Euro have a signal for heavy rains in the Hill Country and maybe NC Texas and SC Texas. That signal has existed for several days

[TomballEd]

Euro Weeklies for May/June/July. A wet signal is clearly showing up in the Plains. MCS season is probably going to be active this year.

https://i.postimg.cc/g08XYXRG/seas5-qpfa-3mon-conus-MJJ.png

Not to be a turd in the punchbowl but a forecast 3/4" of an inch above the normal over 3 months mean keeps the drought from getting worse, maybe even reduces the category, but it doesn't refill many reservoirs or aquifers. The 'bad water line' of the Edwards has always been close to I-35 (far SE Bexar county is on the salty side of the bad water line), if they pump below the level of the salt water line the freshwater aquifer will start getting salty.

[wxman22]

Euro Weeklies for May/June/July. A wet signal is clearly showing up in the Plains. MCS season is probably going to be active this year.

https://i.postimg.cc/g08XYXRG/seas5-qpfa-3mon-conus-MJJ.png

Not to be a turd in the punchbowl but a forecast 3/4" of an inch above the normal over 3 months mean keeps the drought from getting worse, maybe even reduces the category, but it doesn't refill many reservoirs or aquifers. The 'bad water line' of the Edwards has always been close to I-35 (far SE Bexar county is on the salty side of the bad water line), if they pump below the level of the salt water line the freshwater aquifer will start getting salty.

It's a 3 month mean the signal is supposed to be smoothed out and not taken verbatim.That's not how Anomaly maps work. All you're looking for in this range is whether they show average, below average, or above average anomalies. The exact precip amounts are impossible to decipher this far out.

[Cpv17]

Euro Weeklies for May/June/July. A wet signal is clearly showing up in the Plains. MCS season is probably going to be active this year.

https://i.postimg.cc/g08XYXRG/seas5-qpfa-3mon-conus-MJJ.png

Not to be a turd in the punchbowl but a forecast 3/4" of an inch above the normal over 3 months mean keeps the drought from getting worse, maybe even reduces the category, but it doesn't refill many reservoirs or aquifers. The 'bad water line' of the Edwards has always been close to I-35 (far SE Bexar county is on the salty side of the bad water line), if they pump below the level of the salt water line the freshwater aquifer will start getting salty.

Its a 3 month mean the signal is supposed to be smoothed out, and not taken verbatim.That's not how Anomaly maps work. All you're looking for in this range is wether they show average, below average, or above average anomalies. The exact precip amounts are impossible to decipher this far out.

Agreed, it’s a pretty good look overall. Hope it verifies. This is the worst drought I’ve had around where I live in a long while.

[TomballEd]

Euro Weeklies for May/June/July. A wet signal is clearly showing up in the Plains. MCS season is probably going to be active this year.

https://i.postimg.cc/g08XYXRG/seas5-qpfa-3mon-conus-MJJ.png

Not to be a turd in the punchbowl but a forecast 3/4" of an inch above the normal over 3 months mean keeps the drought from getting worse, maybe even reduces the category, but it doesn't refill many reservoirs or aquifers. The 'bad water line' of the Edwards has always been close to I-35 (far SE Bexar county is on the salty side of the bad water line), if they pump below the level of the salt water line the freshwater aquifer will start getting salty.

It's a 3 month mean the signal is supposed to be smoothed out and not taken verbatim.That's not how Anomaly maps work. All you're looking for in this range is whether they show average, below average, or above average anomalies. The exact precip amounts are impossible to decipher this far out.

I get that, but the mean being barely above average means more than a few ensemble members are below average or that is essentially a forecast of normal rainfall for most of STX. It is the right three months to be average but a darker shade of green would be better.

[txtwister78]

Not to be a turd in the punchbowl but a forecast 3/4" of an inch above the normal over 3 months mean keeps the drought from getting worse, maybe even reduces the category, but it doesn't refill many reservoirs or aquifers. The 'bad water line' of the Edwards has always been close to I-35 (far SE Bexar county is on the salty side of the bad water line), if they pump below the level of the salt water line the freshwater aquifer will start getting salty.

It's a 3 month mean the signal is supposed to be smoothed out and not taken verbatim.That's not how Anomaly maps work. All you're looking for in this range is whether they show average, below average, or above average anomalies. The exact precip amounts are impossible to decipher this far out.

I get that, but the mean being barely above average means more than a few ensemble members are below average or that is essentially a forecast of normal rainfall for most of STX. It is the right three months to be average but a darker shade of green would be better.

I think the overall signal and that's what these long range outlooks represent at this stage in time should be viewed as a positive one for our state. More importantly it fits the type of El Nino we're transitioning into from an analog perspective and so it's not just about the output but the background support that exist which gives those forecast more credibility

Again I'm going to keep repeating this but it's important given the current state of our drought conditions along with the absolutely brutal dry summers we've had over the past several years and that is how can one look at these outlooks (climate and now euro seasonal) as anything but positive considering the alternative??? Lol

Obviously no need to figure it all out now in terms of guessing on total amounts or get into the weeds just yet regarding "how much above normal" we actually end up. The point is what would we all be saying absent those signals headed into the summer withva drought in place? So let's see how it all plays out but I'm just as optimistic as I was in March about the prospects in April and here we are.

[Ntxw]

It's a 3 month mean the signal is supposed to be smoothed out and not taken verbatim.That's not how Anomaly maps work. All you're looking for in this range is whether they show average, below average, or above average anomalies. The exact precip amounts are impossible to decipher this far out.

I get that, but the mean being barely above average means more than a few ensemble members are below average or that is essentially a forecast of normal rainfall for most of STX. It is the right three months to be average but a darker shade of green would be better.

I think the overall signal and that's what these long range outlooks represent at this stage in time should be viewed as a positive one for our state. More importantly it fits the type of El Nino we're transitioning into from an analog perspective and so it's not just about the output but the background support that exist which gives those forecast more credibility

Again I'm going to keep repeating this but it's important given the current state of our drought conditions along with the absolutely brutal dry summers we've had over the past several years and that is how can one look at these outlooks (climate and now euro seasonal) as anything but positive considering the alternative??? Lol

Obviously no need to figure it all out now in terms of guessing on total amounts or get into the weeds just yet regarding "how much above normal" we actually end up. The point is what would we all be saying absent those signals headed into the summer withva drought in place? So let's see how it all plays out but I'm just as optimistic as I was in March about the prospects in April and here we are.

Yeah the alternative is they show above normal heights, above normal temps, and below normal precipitation which is what they have been showing for years season after season. It's a good sign, beggars can't be choosers. El Nino usually has a year, either of or the next year, that rainfall is pretty good.

[txtwister78]

I get that, but the mean being barely above average means more than a few ensemble members are below average or that is essentially a forecast of normal rainfall for most of STX. It is the right three months to be average but a darker shade of green would be better.

I think the overall signal and that's what these long range outlooks represent at this stage in time should be viewed as a positive one for our state. More importantly it fits the type of El Nino we're transitioning into from an analog perspective and so it's not just about the output but the background support that exist which gives those forecast more credibility

Again I'm going to keep repeating this but it's important given the current state of our drought conditions along with the absolutely brutal dry summers we've had over the past several years and that is how can one look at these outlooks (climate and now euro seasonal) as anything but positive considering the alternative??? Lol

Obviously no need to figure it all out now in terms of guessing on total amounts or get into the weeds just yet regarding "how much above normal" we actually end up. The point is what would we all be saying absent those signals headed into the summer withva drought in place? So let's see how it all plays out but I'm just as optimistic as I was in March about the prospects in April and here we are.

Yeah the alternative is they show above normal heights, above normal temps, and below normal precipitation which is what they have been showing for years season after season. It's a good sign, beggars can't be choosers. El Nino usually has a year, either of or the next year, that rainfall is pretty good.

Exactly!

[Cpv17]

The GFS and Euro are worlds apart. I’m not believing anything past 3 days out.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS and Euro are worlds apart. I’m not believing anything past 3 days out.

For this kind of range, I prefer ensemble forecasting, but even that has agreement issues

[Cpv17]

The GFS and Euro are worlds apart. I’m not believing anything past 3 days out.

For this kind of range, I prefer ensemble forecasting, but even that has agreement issues

I’ve noticed that as well.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS and Euro are worlds apart. I’m not believing anything past 3 days out.

For this kind of range, I prefer ensemble forecasting, but even that has agreement issues

I’ve noticed that as well.

I will mention that the euro has been starting to become more and more aggressive with the setups later down the road, so maybe it's caving to the GFS/GEFS?

[Cpv17]

For this kind of range, I prefer ensemble forecasting, but even that has agreement issues

I’ve noticed that as well.

I will mention that the euro has been starting to become more and more aggressive with the setups later down the road, so maybe it's caving to the GFS/GEFS?

Maybe. I noticed that on X people are freaking out on severe weather potential from the latest run of the GFS.

[Brent]

I’ve noticed that as well.

I will mention that the euro has been starting to become more and more aggressive with the setups later down the road, so maybe it's caving to the GFS/GEFS?

Maybe. I noticed that on X people are freaking out on severe weather potential from the latest run of the GFS.

Oh the usual suspects are already hyping here. I'm like guys it's about to be 70s and sunny the next 3-4 days. Relax. We'll be wishing for this weeks weather in a few months

I'm not gonna worry about it too far out