Texas Spring 2026

[Stratton23]

cant wait for the front, this humidity is insufferable , feels like death out here

[Ntxw]

48F at noon DFW with light rain and wind chill 41F. It's coming stratton. We are going full blown El Nino next month and complete takeover in June.

[cycloneye]

For the Texas members, here is why Ntxw mentioned about El Niño comming fast. See the ENSO updates thread

[Edwards Limestone]

Let’s just hope it’s not another 2023 El Niño for Texas because that sucked. 2015 please.

[SnowyOwl31]

Looking pretty good for us in SE TX (If you want rain), particularly those of us south of I-10 that usually get the short end of the stick when it comes to rain lol.

[Ntxw]

Let’s just hope it’s not another 2023 El Niño for Texas because that sucked. 2015 please.

I know that's a year many people don't like, and fairly so! The walker circulation never really responded well to that El Nino partially because the western pacific and MC waters were hot and remained so. It was really a half baked El Nino. The rest of the Globe didn't play ball, but the response is much more traditional currently.

[txtwister78]

Plenty of data out there to suggest this is going to be an El Nino that delivers for areas that desperately need rainfall.

In the meantime over the next few days more rain enters the forecast across SC TX points south and east. Active pattern continues into next week and the good news is May looks active as well.

All of it without an uptick in severe weather which I'll take. At some point though that luck is going to run out. Just a matter of time.

[JDawg512]

Ugh once again the storms are missing my area... Hopefully more will pop up.

[Stratton23]

man it feels so nice outside! When that front came through over night , i had to double check the calendar lol! Love this cooler air!

[Cpv17]

man it feels so nice outside! When that front came through over night , i had to double check the calendar lol! Love this cooler air!

I was in Katy yesterday and the front blew in around 5 ish while I was walking into Dick’s lol immediate change.

[txtwister78]

1-2 inches of rain across portions of SC TX including the San Antonio metro with another 1-2 likely on the way in the next 48 hours. Not bad.

Keep it coming.

[txtwister78]

0z update: HRRR extended and a few other hi-res models increasing rainfall totals across SC TX over the next 24-36 hours.

Now 2-3 inches possible on top of the 1-2 inches that has already fallen. Love it!

Waiting our turn paying off.

[Cpv17]

I’m now up to 2” so far in the month of April. Not much yet for me, but a lot better than the past few months, that’s for sure.

[Stratton23]

HRRR and other short res models show raining picking up early monday morning and lasting all the way through early wednesday morning, next 48-60 hours could be rather messy on the roads, looks like mostly light- moderate rainfall on guidance though

[Edwards Limestone]

A great start to putting a dent in years of drought down here…keep it coming!

[wxman22]

More severe weather risks may be needed for the weekend also per SPC.

The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue
to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater
ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling
out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary
indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear
between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of
eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.

By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains
will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern
California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly.
Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main
trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern
Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries
(dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of
prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned
perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition
suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8,
certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any
given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional
probabilities at this time.

[Cpv17]

EPS looks good for us in SETX, GEFS is slowly backing off, though. Guess we’ll see who wins.

[Ntxw]

The subtropical jet is going to park itself over the southern plains. El Nino has arrived.



You can already tell when the cloudy days are outnumbering the sunny days.

[TomballEd]

STX needed the rain. My wife was bored, we went to San Antonio. No idea it is Fiesta Season. Windy and in the 50sF, expected crowds on the Riverwalk, it was dead. Rain was very hit and miss, looks like my part of Harris County received almost nothing while 20 miles away there was street flooding.

Looks like more of a 'farmers's rain' approaching HGX. We take/ 12Z HRRR is about an inch locally next 2 days, some very localized 6 inch amounts in the I-35 corridor from near AUS to SAT.

[Edwards Limestone]

The subtropical jet is going to park itself over the southern plains. El Nino has arrived.

https://i.postimg.cc/fb61nBFL/gfs-ens-uv250-namer-fh48-240-(1).gif

You can already tell when the cloudy days are outnumbering the sunny days.

It’s so beautiful!

As is this rain…3” in the last 3 days at my place and still coming down. You can almost hear the soil relaxing.