2026 EPAC Season

[HurricaneRyan]

Even the waters by California look warmer than normal

[Kingarabian]

Waters in the far eastern Pacific have persistent pockets of cooler than normal waters. Could be a long tracker season if disturbances have to wait till they get near 100W to develop.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Waters in the far eastern Pacific have persistent pockets of cooler than normal waters. Could be a long tracker season if disturbances have to wait till they get near 100W to develop.

I think towards the back half of the season the Pacific coast of Mexico could find itself grappling with powerful recurves with the very positive anoms extending up towards Baja

[cycloneye]

@HurricaneManWx
The current SST for the ENP is approximately 28.5C whereas the climatological mean for mid-April is closer to 27C.

​The 2026 trajectory is currently positioned several standard deviations above the historical envelope and is currently running above 2024/2025.

While a seasonal rise is normal, the rate of warming over the last 30 days is significantly higher than the 1991-2020 average in the Pacific.

 https://x.com/HurricaneManWx/status/2045641683359138217

[South Texas Storms]

Waters in the far eastern Pacific have persistent pockets of cooler than normal waters. Could be a long tracker season if disturbances have to wait till they get near 100W to develop.

I think towards the back half of the season the Pacific coast of Mexico could find itself grappling with powerful recurves with the very positive anoms extending up towards Baja

Agreed. That's fairly common during El Nino events, and these sometimes lead to some major flood events across Texas, especially in October (1998 and 2021 to name a few).

[Astromanía]

Less than a month for the season to start, what are the numbers you expect for the season? Mine are 22/14/10
ACE 245

Edit:
24/15/10 ACE 265 I went more bullish

[cycloneye]

23/11/7 ACE 323.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

22/15/9 ACE 230 is my guess. Everything is lining up for a well-above avg (if not hyperactive) year

[Hurricane2022]

27/16/12, ACE 290 - very 2018-esque.

[Category5Kaiju]

28/16/11 with 310 ACE is my guess. And a bold guess I'm also making is that this year will reach the auxiliary naming list.

[cycloneye]

Will this basin reach the supplemental list?

Aidan, Bruna, Carmelo, Daniella, Esteban, Flor, Gerardo, Hedda, Izzy, Jacinta, Kenito, Luna, Marina, Nancy, Ovidio, Pia, Rey, Skylar, Teo, Violeta, Wilfredo, Xinia, Yariel, and Zoe.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Will this basin reach the supplemental list?

Aidan, Bruna, Carmelo, Daniella, Esteban, Flor, Gerardo, Hedda, Izzy, Jacinta, Kenito, Luna, Marina, Nancy, Ovidio, Pia, Rey, Skylar, Teo, Violeta, Wilfredo, Xinia, Yariel, and Zoe.

Not a far fetched proposition at all, wouldn't be surprised if my prediction is too bearish...although the inclusion of X, Y and Z on the regular lists makes them a little harder to exhaust than in the Atlantic

[Ulf]

Will this basin reach the supplemental list?

Aidan, Bruna, Carmelo, Daniella, Esteban, Flor, Gerardo, Hedda, Izzy, Jacinta, Kenito, Luna, Marina, Nancy, Ovidio, Pia, Rey, Skylar, Teo, Violeta, Wilfredo, Xinia, Yariel, and Zoe.

Not a far fetched proposition at all, wouldn't be surprised if my prediction is too bearish...although the inclusion of X, Y and Z on the regular lists makes them a little harder to exhaust than in the Atlantic

The CPAC having their own name list also makes exhausting the EPAC list even harder.

[cycloneye]

Looks like Amanda will be up by mid may as the MJO moves thru the basin.

[Category5Kaiju]

Will this basin reach the supplemental list?

Aidan, Bruna, Carmelo, Daniella, Esteban, Flor, Gerardo, Hedda, Izzy, Jacinta, Kenito, Luna, Marina, Nancy, Ovidio, Pia, Rey, Skylar, Teo, Violeta, Wilfredo, Xinia, Yariel, and Zoe.

Not a far fetched proposition at all, wouldn't be surprised if my prediction is too bearish...although the inclusion of X, Y and Z on the regular lists makes them a little harder to exhaust than in the Atlantic

The CPAC having their own name list also makes exhausting the EPAC list even harder.

Here's the thing: there are 24 regular names. If a season is ultra-active, with at least 25 names, it really boils down to how many CPAC formations happen. It could definitely very well be the difference between not exhausting the normal list and reaching at least Aidan before the season is all done.

[Astromanía]

Oh look, 31 °C waters

[cycloneye]

Just before the 15th.

12z GFS



18z GFS

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/2049232666617401671