Hopefully not. Atlantic is virtually closed on potential develpment until 2004, but due to recent events, I wouldn't let my guard down, that would be stupid of my part.
To some people this might sound stupid or unbelievable, but I am seeing broad low pressure off the coast of Panama in the southern Caribbean. I would have to check the patterns that would steer this system either to the north or straight west. There is an ULH on top of it, so wind shear is not a problem, but closeness to land is. This cold front that just exited the United States might try to move this more northward and then, if that happens we could see some development even as a TD. Water is still warm and wind shear light, so there shouldn't be a reason if thunderstorms and broad low pressure are present. Even when we think "It's December nothing will develop", but you have to remember that tropical cyclones don't have a calendar to abide by.
As I said, I'm not trying to sound alarmist, but I am seeing the same kind of situation as with the pre-Odette system. Has anybody checked at any of the models to see if they see something forming? The global models have made an excellent performance as of late and successfully predicted the development of both Odette and Peter, so that would be something to examine.
Even if we think that it is stupid to say that this will develop (as climatology is virtually against it) something must have parked over the Atlantic recently and is wanting to develop systems this late. Remember, we didn't see anything form in November and now December is seeing activity. There must be some kind of pattern or circulation that travels the world, similar to the MJO, that initiates tropical cyclones. Just something to think about....
I would like to hear your opinions on this and any info about the models. Thank you.
Broad low pressure near coast of Panama...repeat of Odette?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
-
Josephine96
-
Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
I just checked the various models and none, to my understanding, develop any type of tropical system in the southern Caribbean. I, myself, am not receptive as to something developing, but being this 2003, yeah the same-old 2003, I would keep a partial eye on it. It is however, somewhat impressive as one would expect the Caribbean to be dominated by dry air in all levels this time of year. This is the dry season in central America and Panama is receiving some hefty thunderstorms as I write. Something to monitor...
0 likes
-
ncweatherwizard
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1243
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 9:45 am
- Location: Ft. Collins, CO
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146139
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
The Dominican Republic was hitted by Odette that left 2 people dead and many injured in the floods there so Odette was not a fish.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Blinhart, Blown Away, Canelaw99, cheezyWXguy, Cpv17, Datsaintsfan09, Google Adsense [Bot], islandgirl45, Miami Storm Tracker, redingtonbeach, riapal, Shawee, StPeteMike, Stratton23, TampaWxLurker, TomballEd and 165 guests