XMAS Storm update #3. Model Split! Midwest/N.Lakes or OV ???

[Guest]

Unbelievable at 72 hrs out that we have such disagreement on the models..........

First off looking at the overnight & 12zGFS run of the models it looks like some will be happier and some not. They more or less take our storm system up into IL/IN with the heaviest snows focused from Eastern IA over to Chicago and most of central and southern WI and on over into central and northern MI. And then the storm slowly makes its way to the ene to Lake Erie providing a decent wrap around in MI, WI, IL, IN and then even a bit on over into OH but NOT nearly as much as the earlier runs from yesterday and alot of days leading up to yesterday had showed.

Now as far as the ETA/GGM goes they show a track farther east with a hit on the OV and Southern Lakes. Namely IN, OH, se MI AND n.KY into the western areas of WV and w.PA.

Right now the EC is somewhat ODDLY enough closer to the GFS camp...
And the Euro is siding with the GGEM and ETA<------Out to 84hrs anyways which is far as the ETA goes.

This is turing into one big nightmare of a forecast to do on this system!!!
It can go either way for any of the areas i have listed above with one exception beeing that areas farther east into the OV/Southern Lakes will either have a heavy rain to some snow or a heavy snow event and farther west into the midwest/Northern Lakes its either a snowstorm or just light snow with a light accumulation at most possible.

All i can say for now is to keep checking in for more updates on this event for xmas. I will admit right now i dont know which to side with. I would like to say the latter which gives me the big hit but doing what i do for this site that would be only -removed- to a degree which i wont do. So as i said im split right now on who will get what with this storm system. It can go either way. NOT a good trend for me as seeing how my confidence was a bit higher yesterday for a hit on my area with the heavier snows.

Any other thoughts on this please share. "Make them valid thoughts btw and NOT NWS discussions or the sort. Thanks.

[WEATHERGURU]

The Global Canadian & UKMET both have been very consistent with the track the last 2 or 3 day from south central Tennessee to northeast Ohio. The GFS has been all over the place would you all agree. Your thoughts?

[Upslope]

We are actually starting to see the differences in resolution between the ETA and GFS coming into play with our next system.

The higher resolution of the ETA allows it to pick up on low level cold air much better than the GFS and that's exactly what it's doing. In an odd twist, the ETA is the one showing the northern stream to be the dominant feature.

I agree! Here's why... there IS going to be a nice resevoir of cold air in southern Canada for this storm to tap. The GFS is not picking up on this and thus allows the storm to form much more to the NW than the ETA. With the ETA, the cold air isn't going to be denied as it has single digit temps into Minnesota and teens into Iowa at 84hrs. This in turn forces a weak low into Ky and weakens it as another low forms overf northern Georgia. Ridging in the western Atlantic would force any such low to turn northward along the east slopes of the apps.

As the 500mb low closes off... the low may actually dumbell back westward similar to what the UKEMT is suggesting. The GGEM isn't too far off in this idea, as well.

Bottom line is that the cold in Canada is looking more and more impressive as it surges southward into this system and argues for a more eastward cutoff position at 500mb.

I have been on board for days now about one low into the OV and another forming and riding the appy express. The ETA is about as close to my assesment as I can find. Could the GFS verify with it's solution? Of course it could and it may very well. I'm just reading the pattern we are in and riding this horse until it bucks me off!

Either way OV and lakes see some snow from this storm. The question is, is the eastern or western parts of these areas? Tough call right now!

[WEATHERGURU]

Here is the 12Z UKMET. Looks good for snow in southeast Michigan. Your thoughts?
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

[therock1811]

Looks good to me...

[Guest]

We are actually starting to see the differences in resolution between the ETA and GFS coming into play with our next system.

The higher resolution of the ETA allows it to pick up on low level cold air much better than the GFS and that's exactly what it's doing. In an odd twist, the ETA is the one showing the northern stream to be the dominant feature.

I agree! Here's why... there IS going to be a nice resevoir of cold air in southern Canada for this storm to tap. The GFS is not picking up on this and thus allows the storm to form much more to the NW than the ETA. With the ETA, the cold air isn't going to be denied as it has single digit temps into Minnesota and teens into Iowa at 84hrs. This in turn forces a weak low into Ky and weakens it as another low forms overf northern Georgia. Ridging in the western Atlantic would force any such low to turn northward along the east slopes of the apps.

As the 500mb low closes off... the low may actually dumbell back westward similar to what the UKEMT is suggesting. The GGEM isn't too far off in this idea, as well.

Bottom line is that the cold in Canada is looking more and more impressive as it surges southward into this system and argues for a more eastward cutoff position at 500mb.

I have been on board for days now about one low into the OV and another forming and riding the appy express. The ETA is about as close to my assesment as I can find. Could the GFS verify with it's solution? Of course it could and it may very well. I'm just reading the pattern we are in and riding this horse until it bucks me off!

Either way OV and lakes see some snow from this storm. The question is, is the eastern or western parts of these areas? Tough call right now!

You know i think your on to something here with the ETA...

Have a look at the 18z run and notice how it is starting to now clearly pick up on the ideas you have suggested here. Notice how it does show a new low forming in Eastern TN which imo would help bring down the colder air into these parts alot quicker then the other models are showing. Only problem i see with this is where it depicts the ULL?????? Either way it will be intresting to see the 18z GFS and as well more so the 00z runs of all the models. My guess is that it will pick up better on the colder air and as well adjust the location of the ULL farther east.................If i had to pick a area of who will get the best shot at the heaviest snowfall i would have to say eastern Indiana into Southern Michigan and on over into western OH and down into Central KY at this point anyways. Still to far to the west for me anyways. Would be a heavy rain to some accumulating snow event perhaps depending on how long that storm sits and spins over the Southern Lakes/SE Canada.

I will add to this after the GFS finishes udating.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/fp0_084.shtml

[WEATHERGURU]

Hey King are you say we would have a shot at heavy snow here in your opinion?

[Upslope]

The new EURO implies a major snowstorm for much of the OV and lakes!

One low heads for indy and washes out with a new low forming over TN and heading north to near Columbus by Christmas Eve day. Then northward to Michigan by Christmas.

Taken at face value, the EURO has a wind driven snowstorm for Kentucky, Indiana, Parts of Illinois, western Ohio and Michigan!

It's just one run of one model, but it sure looks similar to the ETA at 84hrs.

[Guest]

Well it looks like they are honing in on Western OH/Indiana/central KY/ and Central and southern Michigan. BTW thats a bad track for me. Need it to go thru western PA near OH line up across Lake Erie. Not looking the best for me anyways lots of rain to perhaps a couple of inches of snow at most. Oh well.
perhaps maybe they will do one more change in my favor which im starting to doubt. But who knows.

[StormCrazyIowan]

I have a VERY bad feeling about this......

[Guest]

I have a VERY bad feeling about this......

You and me both..............

[Stormsfury]

ETA 12z 500mb 72 hours out.


ETA 12z SFC plots/thickness schemes.


ECMWF Day 3 MSLP ...

EURO 500mb Abs. Vorticity -

EURO 500mb Heights.

SF

[Stormsfury]

GFS 12z 72 hours 500mb heights/vort...


GFS 12z 72 hours SFC/Thickness ---


GFS 500mb Heights/Vort loop...


12z GFS/ECMWF runs at Day 3 very comparatively similar ... wow... BOTH indicating SFC low in SE MO (ECMWF 1006 mb, GFS 1008 mb) ... but that's where the similarities end ... the ECMWF takes the SFC low right over Columbus, OH (996mb) from SE MO, while the GFS takes the low into IN at 96 hours ... 1004mb ...

Model Comparisons for the 12z ETA/12z GFS at 84 hours ... notice the 12z GFS cutoff is MUCH broader than the sharper ETA ... and further EAST than the GFS ... and potential for DT's Double E rule to take effect ...

ETA


GFS


SF