Sleet possible near Houston

PTrackerLA · #1 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:00 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
155 PM CST WED JAN 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEGINNING JUST ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WITH THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUD COVER AND AN AREA OF -RA
SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN EVENT
EXPECTED TONIGHT/THURSDAY. WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE GFS IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE RETREATING AIRMASS AND
HAS THE BEST QPF FORECAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN WILL SET UP
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING OVER SE TX. FIRST AREAS OF -RA SPREADING UP
FROM MIDDLE TX COAST WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND AND WILL ONLY
ACT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UPWARD
FOR TONIGHT WITH REPORTS ALREADY OF -RA AT CRP/VCT. GIVEN DEPTH OF
COLD AIRMASS...SOME ICE PELLETS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF HOUSTON AT THE START OF THE EVENT (THROUGH 09Z
THU). DECIDED NOT TO MENTION SLEET IN FORECAST GIVEN THE LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIP...THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AND SFC TEMPS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS WARMING SLOWLY TOWARD MORNING.

Houston residents keep your eyes open for some ice pellets tonight!

GalvestonDuck · #2 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:05 pm

*shivers*

Johnny · #3 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:28 pm

Yep, temps didn't rise much at all today. I'm an hour north of Houston so I might get some sleet. All I know is that it is going to be a very cold rain. Now they aren't even bring the warm front onshore before the front coming in Thursday night which should clear us out.

#4 Postby **bfez1** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:31 pm

And then it's headed straight for New Orleans, right???
:lol:

#5 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:36 pm

Johnny wrote:Yep, temps didn't rise much at all today. I'm an hour north of Houston so I might get some sleet. All I know is that it is going to be a very cold rain. Now they aren't even bring the warm front onshore before the front coming in Thursday night which should clear us out.

Whaddaya mean it didn't even warm up today? We're having a heat wave!!! It got up to 45º!!! :roll:

****ssssssshhhhhhiiiiivvvvvveeeeeerrrrrr****** :eek:

Sorry I was trying to type while too cold!!! :lol:

The sleet possibilities do not surprise me. I've kind of been expecting it since the cold air has been staying in place and we obviously have a decently deep layer of cold air here since we have managed such warm temps the last two days with cloud cover. For those that don't know this area when we have cloud cover more often than not we warm up and we have not been warming up(at least not by our standards).

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:39 pm

Woohoo Ice Pellet watching tonight!!!!

I'll be there :-)

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:42 pm

Time sensitive ... yep, the arctic air is continuing to hold strong from the 700mb level on down to the SFC as one can see on the sounding how the shallow nature of the arctic air undercuts relatively warmer air aloft ...

#8 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:45 pm

Thanks SF for a better picture of what I was saying. AS you say it will be very time sensitive too. We are close to getting a return SE flow and when that happens we go to all rain quick if we even get any winter precip out of this.

OtherHD · #9 Postby **OtherHD** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:48 pm

Over my dead body!

southerngale · #10 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:49 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Whaddaya mean it didn't even warm up today? We're having a heat wave!!! It got up to 45º!!! ****ssssssshhhhhhiiiiivvvvvveeeeeerrrrrr****** Sorry I was trying to type while too cold!!!

You reached 45° today? That IS a heatwave. :lol:

Our expected high was 45° but we only made it to 43°

SOME ICE PELLETS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF HOUSTON AT THE START OF THE EVENT (THROUGH 09Z THU).

I'm east of Houston, actually just north of east. Guess I could see some too!

Lindaloo · #11 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:49 pm

So that means it may come to MS too? WOO HOO!!

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:50 pm

OtherHD wrote:Over my dead body!

ROTFLMAO

#13 Postby **bfez1** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:51 pm

Lindaloo wrote:So that means it may come to MS too? WOO HOO!!

After it comes to New Orleans--- :lol:

#14 Postby **bfez1** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:52 pm

OtherHD wrote:Over my dead body!

OtherHD, we'll miss ya--- :lol:

Lindaloo · #15 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 3:58 pm

Yep, we will miss ya HD. Hmmmm maybe. lol.

LOL Bonnie.

GalvestonDuck · #16 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 4:03 pm

ticka1 wrote:Woohoo Ice Pellet watching tonight!!!!

I'll be there

Better watch out for those ice pellets, especially if they're "cigar-sized!"

southerngale · #17 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 4:13 pm

OtherHD wrote:Over my dead body!

Yikes! Ok, but we'll miss ya. RIP!
Don't worry, I'll come visit your grave and put some snow over ya.

therock1811 · #18 Postby **therock1811** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 4:36 pm

LMBO!!!!!!!!! You guys are TOO funny!!!!!!!!

OtherHD · #19 Postby **OtherHD** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 4:44 pm

therock1811 wrote:LMBO!!!!!!!!! You guys are TOO funny!!!!!!!!

Maybe funny for you Jeremy, but right now, I have about 10 people that want me dead. :cry:

JCT777 · #20 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Jan 07, 2004 4:46 pm

OtherHD wrote:
therock1811 wrote:LMBO!!!!!!!!! You guys are TOO funny!!!!!!!!

Maybe funny for you Jeremy, but right now, I have about 10 people that want me dead.

I still like you, HD.

Sleet possible near Houston

Sleet possible near Houston

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