January Update: Severe Cold and Snow Likely Down the Road

[JCT777]

sertorious - hope you get some cold air and also some snow to go with it.

[sertorius]

Thanks!! So do I!! The GFS does look real good 8-10 days-doesn't it always!! I'll just wait and see what happens!!

[donsutherland1]

Just a brief update...

At 8 pm, the following temperatures were being reported:

Boston: 4
New York City: 10
Philadelphia: 15
Richmond: 29
Washington, DC: 24

Overnight, Boston will likely drop to below zero--around -3 to -1--while NYC and Philadelphia should fall into the single digits. Richmond and Washington, will probably fall to the lower teens.

Is it cold enough for everyone?

As cold as this might be, the latest run of the ECMWF has lent support to the idea that following a storm, an even colder air mass will overspread the eastern U.S.

850 mb temperatures for Friday (1/16/2004) 12Z are incredibly low:

Boston: -27C
New York City: -26C
Philadelphia: -25C
Richmond: -21C
Washington, DC: -22C

With snowcover, this would imply that Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston would all fall below zero--could NYC see its lowest minimum temperature since 1943? DC would have a shot at subzero cold (IAD would probably fall to subzero levels) and Richmond would probably be deep in the single digits.

As for the storm that would usher in this bitter air mass, it is still too soon to say for sure whether it would bring a significant snowfall to much of the Mid-Atlantic and coastal New England. Certainly, at least a few inches looks reasonable at this time but it's too soon to make a definitive call, as some guidance suggests a larger accumulation. Even if the SECS does result, the extreme cold that follows it would probably garner the bigger headline.

Overall, I still remain highly confident that before the cold pattern breaks, there will likely be at least a widespread 4"-8" (or perhaps more) snowfall in the East.

With regard to the 2004 Ice Bowl, I also have high confidence that the Patriots will shrink the Titans' offense to miniscule proportions and on to the AFC Championship game.

[Stormsfury]

The ECMWF 3 day average might be implying something very brutal on the horizon and even worse, COULD have implications on the DEEP SOUTH as well getting into the act, with overrunning and very dry, arctic air in place, a serious icestorm threat Deep SOUTH ...

ECMWF Day 10 3 day average ...

[Stormsfury]

And notice this loop I created for the ECMWF 1/9 12z run ... and this COULD BECOME downright frightening ... even IF this system doesn't materalize into a potential MECS/SECS, the amount of cold air in place in the east along with an undercutting s/w underneath the PNA ridging implying the potential for one hell of an overrunning event downstream and ICE, ICE Baby ... even DEEP INTO THE SOUTHLAND STATES ... You're on notice.



SF

[greg81988]

could you explain to me how to read this.
Thanks

[Stormsfury]

could you explain to me how to read this.
Thanks

I just edited my post above ...

SF

[donsutherland1]

Good point, SF.

I believe the Deep South will need to keep an eye on the situation. Before the cold pattern ends, I would not be surprised if there were a hard freeze even into the Citrus Belt.

[Stephanie]

I can hear my car moaning just looking at that!!

Better lay some paper down in the garage - the dog won't be going outside either!

[Stormsfury]

I would advise people, including myself to check that antifreeze in the car with the amount of cold air progged by the ECMWF tonight ...

[donsutherland1]

A quick update:

The RH (700mb and 850 mb) is above 90% in such cities as NYC, Providence, and Boston on the Euro. With forcing as the storm deepens, there is little doubt that if this run is correct, there will be accumulating snow in these cities and perhaps a significant accumulation.

How much?

That remains the question but consider this:

The 1/15 12z 850 mb temperature forecasts are as follows:

Boston: around -16C
NYC: around -9C

Snow:water ratios would be high to very high.

Surface Temp:
10F-14F: 30:1
15F-19F: 20:1
20F-27F: 15:1

Assuming that the Euro's idea pans out, surface temperatures would probably be in the upper teens and lower 20s in NYC and lower teens in Boston.

Even 0.25" qpf would translate into a 3"-6"/locally 8" snowfall.

Considering analogs and the latest run of the Euro, my best estimate at this time is as follows:

3"-6" possibly 8":
New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, DC

4"-8" possibly 10":
Allentown, Boston, Providence

An interesting wrinkle. I would not be all that surprised if during the storm, readings fell into the teens in NYC and single digits in Boston. All in all, a very cold storm is on tap.

Following the snowfall--and it is probably this aspect that could make Winter 2003-04 a memorable one for the ages--would be extreme cold with subzero readings likely from Washington, DC to Boston perhaps on the order of:

Boston: -10F to -7F
NYC: -6F to -3F (coldest since 1943)
Philadelphia: -5F to -2F
Washington, DC (DCA): -1F to +2F

As for the weekend event, some food for thought pertaining to the development of the February 1899 blizzard (be sure to check out DT's website when he posts the charts, etc.):

<i>The latest storm came from the South, after benumbing and paralyzing that entire section with a grip of ice such as was never known there before.</i>
--<i>The New York Times</i>, February 14, 1899

There are hints that something could come out of the Gulf of Mexico this weekend following the bitterest Arctic blast in perhaps decades.

[greg81988]

how much snow for richmond,va wednesday night and thursday?

[Chris the Weather Man]

Which will be colder 1994 Or 2004? ( But, Can we top -14F Set in 1985 The Arctic Outbreak of 1985)

[donsutherland1]

Greg,

At this time, I believe that Richmond could miss out on the best snows--perhaps 1"-3". This is still subject to change and these ideas are initial ones. By Monday, I should have a firmer idea.

[greg81988]

im not trying to put that down but you are the first person to really say we will get that little.

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

For NYC, this air mass looks to be colder than 1994 (-2F was the coldest reading in NYC). We'll have to see about some of the outlying areas. Right now, it appears that an extreme Arctic air mass will overspread the region for Friday with the big cities from Washington, DC to Boston all seeing subzero cold.

[greg81988]

don to see some good maps go to teh noaa and look at teh maps for wed thru sat. they were updated at 9:36 they put the low pressure goin right through central virginia that is why i predict 3-6 inches on wednesday night thru thursday adn who knows how much for the weekend

[FLguy]

Chris,

For NYC, this air mass looks to be colder than 1994 (-2F was the coldest reading in NYC). We'll have to see about some of the outlying areas. Right now, it appears that an extreme Arctic air mass will overspread the region for Friday with the big cities from Washington, DC to Boston all seeing subzero cold.

exactly...but what is even more incredible is that were doing this w/o any snowcover. IF ... IF ... IF we had snowcover...this would blow away late DEC 1980 out of the water.



notice that aside from the higher elevation of NW new england...and a patch close to the great lakes...there is virtually NO SNOWCOVER across PA...NJ...ERN MD...the delmarva...and the hudson vly...yet we are still seeing highs in the single digits and teens...and lows close to or below zero.

truly incredible.

[donsutherland1]

FLguy,

It was a truly incredible day. I cannot recall any day where the mercury fell to 1F in NYC without any kind of snowcover. We get a chance later this week to see what can happen with an even colder air mass and snowcover. I would not be surprised if NYC has its coldest day since 1943. I am highly confident that Friday will be a remarkable day of extremes.

[donsutherland1]

Greg,

I'm typically hesitant to offer amounts this soon and I just threw out my very early thinking--more and more, I believe I should have waited until Monday. By Monday I'll have a far better idea. Clearly, these amounts should not be seen as anything close to being cast in stone. Richmond could well receive double what I'm talking about but I'm not sure of this yet and want to see some things fall in place before I make such a call.

Working against Richmond at this time is the storm's fast forward motion and the idea that most of its intensification occurs when it is north of Richmond's latitude and it is at that time it will begin to tap into a good supply of Atlantic moisture. These are initial ideas and nothing more.

At this point, what I am fairly sure of is that Baltimore will see more than Richmond, Allentown will see more than Pittsburgh, and New York City will see more than Albany.