So confused

[Poconolover]

I have read other boards and they are saying that models are saying that a warm up is in the works. All that I read last night said we were in for snow and cold. What is going on? Is is cold and snow or warm and rain? Yesterday it seemed like we were going to be in a winter patter for a long while, now things have changed? Is it just people jumping with models or is it good forcasting. What is the point of forcasting if you change you stance every day. I am very confused. I love snow. It is like riding a roller coaster reading some of the posts on other boards. I am anxious to see what Joe Bastardi says tomorrow. Today he was talking about a cold trend for several weeks. Can things change that fast? I truly think there is bad data in the models. Please somebody help me make head or tails of what is going on.

[Anonymous]

The models have a hard time keeping up with the split flow. That's one reason, among others IMHO, that the models are all over the place.

The weekend storm needs to be watched carefully; however, I am not getting excited. I will exercise caution concerning possible snow this weekend, but I AM monitoring the models AND the sensible weather.



-JEB

[powderfreak]

Can things change that fast? I truly think there is bad data in the models. Please somebody help me make head or tails of what is going on.

Sorry Poconolover, I can't help you on the forecast questions, but, I'm just in a philisophical mode right now so I'd like to pose a few questions...

On the topic of models...does anyone think weather would become more boring if someday a "perfect model" was developed? What if we *couldn't* change the weather forecast because it was already set in stone?

With people constantly trying to tweak the models in some way to make them closer to perfect, does anyone think we shouldn't try to perfect atmospheric models?

[Lindaloo]

Heck even I know that weather changes on a daily basis. There are no certainties until it slaps you on the top of the head. lol.

[SacrydDreamz]

Id imagine a moderation of temps everywhere, but I'd expect New Enland to remain generally below normal, however, above normal days are not out of the question. The Mid-Atlantic should experience more warm days than New England, but still feature some cold days… all in all things look about average as this area is highly changeable. The southeast looks to average above normal in my opinion as a flat or transient ridge should allow for some warming. I base this on ensemble PNA, NOA, and AO forecasts.. Interesting time ahead!