NWS RALEIGH BECOMING VERY CONCERNED

[hurricanedude]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
905 PM EST MON FEB 16 2004

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT...WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING TO ELIMINATE EVENING. GSO
HAS ALREADY REACHED THE MID 20S...SO WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES THERE
TO AROUND 20...20 TO 25 ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH...AND 25 TO 30 SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...ALONG I-95 AND WEST TO A LINE FROM
ROXBORO TO SILER CITY TO ROCKINGHAM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH IN A BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN. STRATOCU DECK OVER THE
GULFSTREAM INDICATES A COLD AIR OUTBREAK...FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THIS IS EVIDENCED IN THE
ETA...WHERE THREE SEPARATE LOW CENTERS ARE SEEN OFFSHORE BY 21Z
TUESDAY...EACH CO-LOCATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. AT 00Z...THE ETA WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE PRECIP OFF
HATTERAS WHICH IS NOT THERE. THUS IT IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING ITS DUAL SURFACE LOW PATTERN. THE IN-HOUSE MM5 WAS
PAINTING A SIMILAR PICTURE AS THE 12Z ETA...A COASTAL TROUGH THAT
KEEPS PRECIP AT THE COAST. THE GFS DEPICTION OF ONE SURFACE LOW LOOKS
MORE REALISTIC. A SINGLE SOUTHERN CYCLONE CENTER COULD COME TO
DOMINATE AND ENHANCE WESTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL NC. IF
THIS SCENARIO WERE TO DEVELOP...EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN CENTRAL NC. SURFACE PRESSURE
TENDENCY OFF SC COAST...SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE IF THIS SCENARIO IS DEVELOPING.

GFS PAINTS THE MAXIMUM SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
FROM ALBEMARLE TO GREENSBORO TO ROXBORO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH ITS
850 CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE ETA INDICATES MAX SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...ALIGNED WITH THE 700 MB DEFORMATION
ZONE...SUGGESTING SNOW BANDING IN THIS AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW STRONG
LIFT AND HIGH RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH AREA BETWEEN -12 AN -16
C...WHICH SUGGESTS EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THIS IS SUSTAINED OVER OUR
CWA FOR A 15 HOUR PERIOD FROM 00Z WED TO 15Z WED. THE WATCH AND
ZONES WILL NOT MENTION SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...AND
INSTEAD MENTION SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

[Wannabewxman79]

Fishel said the Mets at NOAA in DC said they sent up the balloons tonight and the jet was diving down 30 knots faster than any model projected. Thus diving the jet much farther south...... Just a little tidbit from RAH.

[Anonymous]

No need to be concerned RAH.


This storm is officially dead in the water.



-Jeb

[hurricanedude]

basing that on 1 model run???? not a good Idea

[stormraiser]

Yeah, Jeb Don't give up yet. It seems like it could explode.

[rainstorm]

dont look dead to me

[JQ Public]

so if it dives much farther south that means>??

[Wannabewxman79]

From what i got out of what he was saying, that will help the low form and deepen it a little more (i.e. makes it stronger)...... At least that is what he was saying

[JQ Public]

o ook...i wasn't sure if you were agreeing or disagree w/ rah for a second. Good point...and the temps are sure dropping already 24 degrees with a dpt of 19!

[Scott_inVA]

basing that on 1 model run???? not a good Idea

No, hurricane, based on the reality the 18Z Eta was an outlier.

I think the general idea has been this certainly can produce decent SN for eastern...possibly central NC/VA. the 18Z Eta was wacked...the 0Z has returned to a more sensible, realistic prog. Again, this happened with the final 0Z eta with last week's debacle.

[Wannabewxman79]

Something just werid happened we actually went up from 24 to 25 degrees with calm winds and clear skies. Kinda odd, just noting it.....

[SacrydDreamz]

From what i got out of what he was saying, that will help the low form and deepen it a little more (i.e. makes it stronger)...... At least that is what he was saying

Probably means that the trough sharpens and we'd see a stronger storm a little further west than progged.

[Wannabewxman79]

Probably means that the trough sharpens and we'd see a stronger storm a little further west than progged.

Yeah that is what I got out of it but then the models came in afterward and they didn't seem to take that into account. I am not sure whether the faster jet was picked up or not......I am no met so I couldn't tell ya......