Cold tongue

[hurricanetrack]

Well- we like to say that we should watch features over a long period, not just a day or two, to see how well they persist. I've got to say that the East-Pac cold tongue has persisted for a few weeks now. Check it out today- it's as cold and pronounced as I've noticed in a long time:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

This is also in great (but perhaps not related, I don't know) agreement with the now very positive SOI. Luis made mention of this in another post.

So, I guess the stage is set for an active hurricane season. THe big question will now become- "where will the mean troff position be?" That alone could shape the entire fortune of the hurricane season. Anyone who has the answer to that will be on to something big....

[Guest]

Yep the cold tongue persists & the ATL continues to warm steadily.

The season should be active, the ? is where will the storms go once their out there???

[Wnghs2007]

Yes that is the main question MIA...but you are right about the waters...they are warming, the cold tongue is growing in the E. PAC, and the amount of convection coming off Africa is amazing...it looks like a pretty good year if you are an Atlantic Hurricane Fan!!

[MWatkins]

The OTIS model in today's run is just as, if not more pronounced than yesterday....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

There are some anoms in there nearing -4C.

Day to day is fun...but the trend is cooler and this is showing in the NHC Reynolds analysis from 4/24 as well:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anom.gif

Brrrr....cooooold.

MW